Archive - Nov 2014

• No Sign of Thaw in Obama’s Brief Encounters With Putin (BBG)
• Japan Lawmakers Prepare for Snap Elections as Abe Mulls Tax (BBG)
• Global stocks rise, Brent crude hits four-year low (Reuters)
• U.S., China to Drop Tariffs on Range of Tech Products (WSJ)
• ‘Too-Big-to-Fail’ Rule Would Raise Bar for Bank Capital (WSJ) ... and mean even bigger taxpayer bailouts
• Pot in New York: $100 Ticket. No Charges. No Record. No Nothing (BBG)
• Microsoft unveils first Lumia smartphone without Nokia name (Reuters)
• Davos-Man Ackermann Lured to Cyprus Bank by Billionaires (BBG)
• Alibaba, Apple Talks on Payments Tie-Up Focused on China (WSJ)

With the bond market closed today due to Veteran's Day and the correlation and momentum ignition algos about to go berserk without any parental supervision, it was only a matter of time before some "stray" headline sent first the carry pair of choice, i.e., the USDJPY, and subsequently its derivative, the Emini, into the stratosphere. And sure enough, just before 3am Eastern, it was once again Reuters' turn to leak, only this time not about the ECB but Japan, as usual citing an unnamed "government official close to Abe's office", that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was likely to delay a planned sales tax increase.

• JAPAN MORE LIKELY TO DELAY SALES TAX INCREASE, REUTERS REPORTS

Which of course is a repeat of what Reuters said 2 days ago but since it came on the weekend, the momentum ignition algos didn't notice. The result was an instant surge in the USDJPY, which shortly thereafter touched on 116.00 the highest level in 7 years, and is up now 200 pips since yesterday as the obliteration of Japan's economy proceeds, in turn pushing European stocks, and shortly, the S&P, higher

There was China's president, Xi Jinping, Russia's president Vladimir Putin to his right, next to Philippine president Aquino and the uberwealthy Sultan of Brunei Hassanal Bolkiah. And then there is Barack Obama, right in the middle of the "wives club"...

Caught on tape: “Lack of transparency is a huge political advantage,” Gruber said. “And basically, call it the stupidity of the American voter or whatever, but basically that was really, really critical for the thing to pass.” The arrogance and destructiveness of this man knows no bounds. Look at how excited he gets, flailing his hands all over the place as he discusses the gigantic deception that is ObamaCare.

"The evil was not in bread and circuses, per se, but in the willingness of the people to sell their rights as free men for full bellies and the excitement of the games which would serve to distract them from the other human hungers which bread and circuses can never appease. The moral decay of the people was not caused by the doles and the games. These merely provided a measure of their degradation." The moral degeneration of the American populace, like the Roman people before them, happened slowly over time as they sold their liberty, freedom, and self-respect for full bellies, an endless array of modern day distractions, and promises from their highly educated rulers they would be taken care of and protected from all threats to their well-being, whether foreign, domestic, physical, mental, or social.

The march of global de-dollarization continues. In the last few days, China has signed direct currency agreements with Canada becoming North America's first offshore RMB hub, which CBC reports analysts suggest "could double maybe even triple the level of Canadian trade between Canada and China," impacting the need for Dollars.But that is not the week's biggest Petrodollar precariousness news, as The Examiner reports, a new chink in the petrodollar system was forged as China signed an agreement with Qatar to begin direct currency swaps between the two nations using the Yuan, and establishing the foundation for new direct trade with the OPEC nation in the very heart of the petrodollar system. As Simon Black warns, "It’s happening... with increasing speed and frequency."

Having clarified where you stand on the political spectrum, we thought this handy guide to what you believe in for the most hot-potato-like political factors would be useful at your next cocktail party...

"The presence of a big buyer who snaps up securities regardless of yields risks preventing the market from reflecting growth and inflation accurately,” says Shinji Hiramatsu, senior investment manager at Sompo Japan Nipponkoa Asset Management, which oversees the equivalent of $9.8b. “The BOJ’s move on Oct. 31 was favorable for my investment, but made me very concerned about a loss of fiscal discipline." Shockingly, even in the basket case country that is Japan, those who directly benefit from the BOJ's terminal experiment are now openly and vocally slamming it because they know that if continues, the final endgame is now near. It has gotten so bad that Japan's population, living in unseen "misery" has had enough, with more respondents to a recent poll stating that the negative effects of Japan's QE surpass the positive. Perhaps that is why the approval of Abe's cabinet is suddenly crashing.

On one hand, global growth is slowing down. And on the other, the cost of living is rising. That’s a bad combination, but we’ll make it. While you’re waiting for QE4 to see how it all goes down, remember to hold on to your  assets… if you have any. 

On the heels of today's dreadful, and very un-hockey-stick-like recovery, data on the Greek economy, it appears the government has found a solution to the various problems of joblessness and poor education. As KeepTalkingGreece reports, the Greek Education Ministry seek fill 1,100 job vacancies with teachers who will gladly and proudly work on "voluntary basis." As far as we remember, working for nothing is, err, slavery; but that's not it at all... as Education Minister Andreas Loverdos, the slave teachers will be rewarded with "bonus points" that will help them improve their hiring options in the future. Ironic that this should be happening as fast-food workers in America demand a higher minimum wage (maybe unemployed Greek teachers would be willing to flip burgers for money rather than teach young greeks for nothing).

Globally the US Dollar carry trade is believed to be north of $3 trillion (larger than the economy of France). What happens when it begins to unwind?

Success in investing, in other words, comes not from over-reach, in straining to make the winning shot, but simply through the avoidance of easy errors. There is now a grave risk that an overzealous commitment to benchmarking is about to lead hundreds of billions of dollars of invested capital off a cliff. When a sufficient number of elephants start charging inelegantly towards the door, not all of them will make it through unscathed.

Following a spike in NATO-Russia "close calls," and previous rumors, The FT reports that NATO and The U.S. are to be openly identified as threats/adversaries in a new Russian military doctrine to be published next month. Furthermore, The FT reports that the Russian government believes it must tie its security interests to China since the Euro-Atlantic framework is too broken. It appears Gorbachev was right in his recent warnings that "the world is on the brink of a new Cold War. Some say it has already begun."

Presented with no comment aside from a small adolescent smirk...