Archive - Nov 2014

Almost three years ago, Iran reportedly downed a US drone. The RQ-170 Sentinel recon drone that was reportedly captured has apparently been reverse-engineered, and now, as Reuters reports, Iran state news agency IRNA reports the drone-clone has taken its first flight. Iran's Supreme Leader noted, "Today is a very sweet and unforgettable day for me." Of course, this 'news' should be taken with a modest pinch of salt but, as with everything in foreign policy these days, Brigadier General Ali Hajizadeh states that "a film of the flight will be released soon."

EURCHF is rapidly falling towards its 1.20 peg level - not seen since September 2012 (when the SNB described the "massive overvaluation of the Swiss franc poses an acute threat to the Swiss economy and carries the risk of a deflationary development.") It appears the CHF buying pressure is based on traders betting on the Swiss Gold Initiative (SGI) referendum on Nov 30th - if it were to pass, the SNB would be forced to choose between buying gold or giving up on the peg (and allowing even more "massive overvaluation" of the swissy). For now, it seems EURCHF is the best indicator of SGI risk as precious metals remain unimpressed by the potential demand. Of course, as ForexLive notes one trader's comments, "even if the gold vote goes against them they can still hit the print button to infinity," to defend the peg; though that may just viciously impact the cost of the physical gold they would be forced to buy.

October was a historic month for McDonalds. While the investing public was already well aware that things are bad and getting worse when it comes to demand for the iconic hamburger following MCD's 30% plunge in Q3 profit, moments ago the troubled fast-food chain reported that in the first month of the fourth quarter it celebrated a tragic anniversary: one year of US comp store sales without a single increase, following a 1% drop in US October sales! This is the first time in history when MCD has anniversaried negative same store sales in the US.

Which country will be next?

The Hryvnia has collapsed to new record lows near 15/USD this morning. The Central Bank and bankers "agreed to keep UAH at 15-16/USD" but are "not planning on new FX market restrictions." However, there is one terrifying 'currency' that needs to be curtailed... Bitcoin. As The National Bank of Ukraine explains, "In order to protect consumers' rights," the virtual currency Bitcoin cannot be used in Ukraine as a means of payment.

The risks unleashed by central bank funding of massive carry trades, policy-driven devaluations and currency crises have yet to manifest. When they do, we'll rediscover why traders consider the FX market the 800-pound gorilla that stomps on the stock and bond markets without even noticing the squishing sound.

Swiss referendum is unlikely to be enacted into law, and if it is, there are several measures the SNB can do to limit its impact.  Expect the SNB to defend the euro floor/franc cap. 

"Chinese numbers came out; I was kind of amused that when they’re pretty much on expectations, nobody writes that the books are cooked and that you have to discount the exports, etc.; they came in right on expectations, and everyone high fives the science of economic forecasting. We’ve either got to seasonally adjust for book cooking or assume, like all numbers, they are an educated guess."

• Obama urges China to be partner in ensuring world order (Reuters)
• China Sees Itself at Center of New Asian Order (WSJ)
• Xi Dangles $1.25 Trillion as China Counters U.S. Refocus (BBG)
• China's Xi, Japan's Abe hold landmark meeting after awkward handshake (Reuters)
• Revenue Softness Worries Stock Investors (WSJ)
• How BOJ’s Kuroda Won the Vote for Stimulus Expansion (WSJ)
• Bonus Season Brings More Pain for Traders (WSJ)
• Russia’s Military Encounters Risk Clash in Europe (BBG)

Following Friday's sticksave, where the usual 3:30 pm ramp brigade pushed futures just barely green into the close despite a miss in the payrolls report which the spin brigade did everything in its power to make it seem that the hiring a few hundred thousand young female waitresses was bullish for the economy, overnight we have seen a listless session, dominated by more USD-profit taking as increasingly more wonder if the relentless surge higher in the Greenback is massively overdone, especially considering that stocks are screaming "worldwide recession" excluding the US, if only for now, because as Goldman explained soaring USD means plunging Oil, means tumbling E&P capex, means lower GDP, means less growth, means lower corporate profits, and so on. That said, we expect the now trivial Virtu JPY momentum-ignition algos to activate shortly, pushing the USDJPY and its derivative, the S&P500, higher in the coming minutes, and certainly before the US market opens in under 3 hours.

As reported previously, and as had been suspected for years, the gold manipulation cartel is slowly breaking apart, and courtesy of the FT, we now know at least one individual directly implicated in Swiss gold-rigging: the former head of UBS's gold desk in Zurich, André Flotron. So as part of our diligence, because apparently no other media will touch the topic of gold rigging until and unless it is shoved in their face on a, ahem, silver platter, because after all the subject matter is just too "conspiratorial", we decided to ask Mr. Flotron some on the record questions, and sent him an email. This is the response we got...

A normalization effort is going to then basically expose that the stock market is roughly overvalued by 100%? "100%, yes. I actually think the case is a little bit harsher than that; in fact, quite a bit harsher than that."

By continuously intervening in all of the markets, the Fed has destroyed the information transmission system that is built into freely trading markets. Time is starting to run out for ability of the U.S. to keep kicking the can of collapse down the road. We’ve come full circle, only with China in the Midas throne this time around.  Eventually the world is going to revert back to a gold-backed currency system.  When this happens, the U.S. will be required to demonstrate that it possesses the amount of gold that it reports to own. The only caveat here is that we believe that the U.S. will start WW3 before it’s forced to reveal the truth about its empty gold vault. That’s how broken our system really is…

Despite testifying that she wasn’t informed of the deadly ignition-switch problem until late December 2013, The Wall Street Journal reports that, according to emails it has obtained, GM ordered a half-million replacement ignition switches almost two months before it alerted federal safety regulators to any problems. Who was in charge of GM purchasing at this time? Mary Barra. As WSJ concludes, the switch order, nearly two months before GM told NHTSA of the need for recall in early February, suggests the company took initial concrete action to address the defect, but outside of scrutiny by regulators and vehicle owners.