Archive - Nov 2014

US Services dropped modestly from the 58.9 in September to a final print at 57.1 in October - the lowest since April. This should be no surprise as for the last 5 years, H2 has seen a notable decline in the soft-survey-based data. Despite the plunge, employment remained solid even as the business outlook neared 2-year lows. As Markit notes, the survey "warns of a slowdown as move towards the end of the year," which is odd because the world and his pet rabbit said US was decoupling. For a change ISM Services actually agreed with Markit and printed 57.1, missing by the most since Feb 2014 with New Orders and Prices Paid down.

Here is the full matrix of possible actions that the ECB can undertake, from adjusting the TLTRO, to shifting the deflation inflation message, to revising its balance sheet target, and finally, to launching a broader QE, and how these could impact the EURUSD based on how Draghi frames them.

Because nothing says 'dissatisfaction' with the widening inequality in America like buying stocks at record highs...

The trouble with mass delusions is that they are recognized as such only when they are over – when the dazzling absurdity of certain widely held beliefs is unmasked by subsequent events.

Isn't it ironic that the demographic in America that has seen the largest job growth during the 'recovery' turned out in droves to vote (against the incumbents) while the generation that remain mired in student debt, living at home with their mom-and-dad in record amounts, and having lost hope of the American Dream were apparently uninterested in 'change'. Perhaps, just perhaps, the elder generation still believes there is a difference between the two parties... or perhaps they are the ones who are most pissed as the promises of sipping margaritas on a golden beach in retirement is crushed into the reality of working to your grave at Home Depot...

Nothing to see here, move along...

Isn't it odd that 'they threw the bums out' last night and yet, economic confidence is high, stocks are high, and now, according to ADP, private payrolls are great too? Something doesn't add up. ADP printed 230k against expectations of 220k, modestly up from a revised 225k in September. Small and Medium-sized businesses added jobs while the largest firms (over 1000 people) slashed jobs (which is great for the stock, right?).

What if we were as skeptical of the reports on the ECB as we are of the Fed ?

• From Yes We Can to Probably Not (BBG)
• How Mitch McConnell did it (Politico)
• Tough road ahead for Obama after Republicans seize Senate (Reuters)
• Election 2014: Who were the big winners and losers? (USA Today)
• GOP Senate Takeover Puts Fed on Hot Seat (WSJ), and other fables
• GOP Won by Recruiting the Right Candidates (WSJ)
• McCain could shake up U.S. defense in powerful new Senate role (Reuters)
• Investors Pulled Record Amount From Pimco’s Flagship Fund in October (WSJ)
• Taliban group threatens to attack India following border blast (Reuters)
• Oil Import Decline to U.S. Revealed by Louisiana as Truth (BBG)

There is a very strong correlation between the GDP and the demand for gold, even in mature markets!

While hardly a surprise, the spin for the latest round of overnight BOJ USDJPY-buying exuberance, which sent the pair higher by another 100 pips to a fresh 7 year high of 114.500 and just over 500 pips from the Albert Edwards "line in the sand" 120 and pushed US equity futures higher with it, has been the Republican sweep in the midterm elections which not only solidified GOP control of the House but also gave Republicans outright control of the Senate.

For the 5th day in a row, "someone" has decided that 0030ET would be an appropriate time (assuming the 'seller' is an investor who prefers best execution rather than the standard non-economically-rational share-repurchaser in America) to be dumping large amounts of precious metals positions via the futures market. Tonight, with over 13,000 contracts being flushed through Gold - amounting to over $1.5 billion notional, gold prices tumbled $20 to $1151 (its lowest level since April 2010). Silver is well through $16 and back at Feb 2010 lows. The USDollar is also surging.

Keep the change...

Here is why interest rates will be perpetually low for the rest of our lives, why the inflation calculation has been changed to a dynamic formula (meaning they now change the inputs each quarter) and why those of us yet to retire are screwed.

"Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other" - Oscar Ameringer

House: 435 Seats, 43 Undecided, Results: Republicans 235 - 157 Democrats (Dem -8, Rep +10)

Senate: 100 Seats, 4 Undecided, Results: Republicans 52 - 45 Democrats/Independents (Dem -7, Rep +7) REID CONGRATULATES MCCONNELL ON REPUBLICAN SENATE WIN

And here are 5 things to watch for the day after the election...