Archive - Dec 17, 2014

Forget about the Fed’s language and its FOMC meeting. The real story is the $100 trillion bond bubble (more like the $191 trillion interest rate bubble based on bonds). When it breaks, it doesn’t matter what the Fed says or does.

Part I of this series demonstrated how/why all of our government debts incurred in recent decades are the result of obvious and egregious fraud. These debts currently cripple our economies (and societies) with roughly 25% of every revenue dollar taken in by our corrupt governments being utterly wasted, making interest payments to financial parasites – criminal parasites.

This means that not only is it morally defensible (and imperative) that we wipe away these recent, fraudulent debts, it can be justified legally, in clear and unequivocal terms. But the question which remained from the opening installment of this series was with respect to the morality/legality of our historical debts. Could we, should we also erase the debts incurred by past generations, after we wipe away all of the recent years of debt-via-fraud?

In its latest effort to counter financial instability - and show its commitment to maintaining order and support for the economy - Russia's Central Bank (CBR) has unveiled 7 new measures... Ranging from bank recaps to measures aimed at helping manage interest-rate and credit risks, the reaction in the Ruble is positive for now... as perhaps, taking a lesson from the US, The CBR removes Mark-to-Market accounting for various credit instruments.

Hope abounds once again this morning. Stocks are up (albeit off their overnight highs) and the Ruble is 'stabilizing'. However, the two crucial factors for recent volatility - crude prices and credit spreads - continue to slump. WTI crude is back below $55 (trading as low as $54.60 this morning) and HY credit spreads have pushed back to their wides around 406bps (disagreeing with stocks modest bounce).

How will the Fed view the recent economic bellweathters, CPI and FEDEX earnings?

Great news: The prices consumers pay dropped 0.3% MoM in November - the biggest deflation since Dec 2008. Of course, The Fed will be in "considerable" panic mode at this data and may choose to crush the hope of so many that rate hikes are coming in mid-2015 as definitive evidence that the US economy is well on the road to recovery. Ex-Food-and-Energy, prices rose 1.7% YoY - slightly missing expectations of +1.8%. Of course, a big driver of this 'transitory' disinflation is a 10.5% YoY drop in Gasoline and 6.6% MoM drop in November. Despite this huge drop, and thge promises of various talking heads, airfares rose 1.36% in November (after also rising 2.39% in October) - so much for the benefits to the consumer.

Goldman's Sven Jari Stehn answers the 11 most critical questions regarding to day's "most-important-FOMC-meeting-ever."

Remember the narrative that the plunge in gas prices is supposed to lead to a surge in corporate profitability if only for those companies for which energy is a cost (not a top-line item like in the decimated energy sector?). Moments ago logistics and trade bellwether came out with numbers that roundly refuted this, after it missed not only on the top line, with revenues of $11.94 billion on expectations of $11.98 billion, but a wide EPS miss, printing $2.14, well below the $2.25 expected and one which the company admitted includes the benefit of $0.16 in EPS from stock repurchases.

• Citigroup is pleased: Obama signs $1.1 trillion government spending bill (Reuters)
• Oil holds below $60 as OPEC, Russia keep pumping (Reuters)
• 5 Things to watch at the December Fed Meeting (WSJ)
• Russia Tries Emergency Steps for 2nd Day to Stem Ruble Rout (BBG)
• Ruble crisis could shake Putin's grip on power (Reuters)
• Apple Curbs Russia Sales as McDonald’s Lifts Prices (BBG)
• Traders Betting Russia’s Next Move Will Be to Sell Gold (BBG)
• China Warms to a More Flexible Yuan (WSJ)

Previewing today's market: near record low liquidity, with chance of ridiculous volatility in the Ruble, energy and equity markets. While no doubt today's main event will be the "considerable" FOMC announcement and the Fed's downward-revised economic projections followed by Yellen's press conference, what traders will be most excited by is that, finally, Jim Bullard will no longer be bound by the blackout period surround FOMC decisions, and as such can hint of QE4 again at his leisure during key market inflection (i.e., selling) points.