Archive - Dec 2014

With uncertainty lingering and patience wearing thin after five-plus years of still lackluster wage growth, consumers are increasing saving for the future, hedging against a continuation of “more of the same.” Thus, for many, extra savings at the pump as a result of lower gas prices are simply being stored away to help supplement spending needs in the future, ramping up savings, not spending.

"The stock market just keeps zooming up. A low equity allocation must be hurting you now... For all purposes, this is a hideously expensive market. I don’t care if it’s a bubble or not. It’s too expensive, and I don’t need to own it. That is the problem. This is the first central bank sponsored near-bubble. There is just nowhere to hide... but... to think that central banks will always be there to bail out equity investors is incredibly dangerous."

Presented with nothing but admiration for the arrogance of manipulators...

An utter VIXnado (below 12.25 in the last 30 mins) sparked a late-day buying panic in stocks ahead of tomorrow's all-hopeful ECB meeting (because nothing makes more sense than lifting all protection ahead of a potentially massive market event) although the last few minutes closed weak. On the day high beta Trannies (despite higher oil) and Small Caps surged once again (as the market ignored PMI and ADP and loved ISM) as Monday's 'excessive' selling of "most shorted" names has been face-ripped back the last 2 days. Treasury yields at the long-end fell back today after 2 days higher (with 30Y back below 3.0%) but <7Y were 0-2bps higher. The dollar roseonce again as EUR dropped to 1.2301 (-17 handles from Draghi's first hint). Depsite USD strength, gold (over $1210) and oil (over $67) pushed higher but silver and copper slipped. In summary, buy back all your hedges, buy stocks, buy bonds, buy dollars, buy gold, buy oil, bye bye sanity.

With the average hedge fund down 1% year-to-date, it is perhaps no surprise that investors are pushing back against the fee structure... Pension funds and other investors called for changes Tuesday in the way hedge funds charge fees. The proposed changes were outlined in a statement by the Alignment of Interests Association (AOI), a hedge fund investor group to which many pension funds belong. The group said that hedge funds should only charge performance fees when returns beat benchmarks, and that fee structures should better link fees to long-term performance.

While superficially the November Beige Book, which is chronically bad at spotting actual trends as was the case in the 2005-2007 period when it came to the housing bubble and the BB had absolutely no warnings about what only in retrospect would be a glaringly obvious bubble, was among the more optimistic ones seen in recent months (there were only 13 instances of "weather" in the document), here is what the Fed's assessment had to say about the only thing that matters currently for the US economy (in addition to the soaring US Dollar of course): oil. One example: 'Energy and mining activity was higher on net, though lower oil prices were a concern for the oil industry in the Atlanta and Dallas Districts."

The 2008 Crisis was a stock and investment bank crisis. But it was not THE Crisis.

Investments in oil and gas exploration and production generate substantial economic gains, as well as other benefits such as increased energy independence.  The Perryman Group estimates that the industry as a whole generates an economic stimulus of almost $1.2 trillion in gross product each year, as well as more than 9.3 million permanent jobs across the nation.  Simply put, this means 9.3 million, or 93% of the 10 million jobs created since the recession/depression trough, are energy related.

The various interpretations of put/call ratios are as diverse as the number of traders who view them. Typically they are used contrarian-wise, a high Put/Call ratio signals an over-cautious investor universe and thus is bullish (and vice versa) but in recent years that has been much less evident. Currently, the index-based put/call ratio is at 1.80 - the highest since May 2012, having been notably above 1 (i.e. more puts than calls) for most of the days since the Bullard lows.

The ink on Barack Obama's Chuck Hagel termination letter hasn't dried yet but already the US president's new, and seemingly far more hawkish advisors, are having their warmongering presence felt. Case in point: the Eastern European theater of (Cold) war, where Military.com reports that the new Army commander in Europe plans to bolster the U.S. armored presence in Poland and the Baltic states and keep rotations of U.S. troops there through next year and possibly beyond to counter Russia. Lt. Gen. Frederick "Ben" Hodges, who replaced Lt. Gen. Donald M. Campbell  earlier this month as commander of U.S. Army Europe, said the Army was looking to add about 100 Abrams tanks and Bradley Fighting Vehicles to the forces in Eastern Europe.

As part of the final solution to inner city social unrest across America, President Obama has put forward recommendations that all police offers wear body cameras... this is what the 'eyes-are-always-on-you' NYPD police camera will look like. What ever happened to Google Glass privacy concerns?