Archive - Jan 2014

News that India may be folding on its capital controls had sent gold and silver surging this morning but following this morning's collapse in emergency claims benefits in the US (expected, but still shocking), precious metals are extending gains, Treasury yields are tumbling, and the USD is well offered. US and German stocks are also cracking lower (with chatter of a flash-crash in Germany's DAX). The more likely driver of all this weakness is that Nomura (or some large Japanese BoJ proxy) lost the 104 USDJPY anchor...

Initial claims rose very marginally week over week (with the declining trend of early 2013 now over); continung claims rose more - considerably more than expectations - with its biggest 7-week rise since early 2009 to the highest in 6 months; but the major news is the drop in Emergency Unemployment Compensation beneficiaries from 1.37 million to (drum roll please) zero! Congress decision not to extend this beenfit means there are 2 million fewer people on benefits than a year ago. The 1.4 million drop also means the number of people NOT in the labor force is about to rise by the same amount, which as we explained before, means the US unemployment rate is about to drop by up to 0.8%, which means the January unemployment rate could be as low as 5.9%.

Over the past year India's attempt to impose price controls on gold imports has only achieved one thing: forced citizens to find ever newer and more creative means of smuggling gold. It has gotten so bad Indians are now smuggling the yellow metal through Pakistan, on airplanes, and has now even surpassed the illegal drug trade. Which perhaps is why the biggest news in the commodity space overnight was the appeal by India's Congress party chief, Sonia Gandhi - widow to Rajiv - to the government asking for a cut in the record import duty on gold and for other restrictions to be eased, television channel CNBC Awaaz said citing sources that it did not identify. Reuters adds that "the coalition government, led by Congress, is considering easing restrictions, which include a 10 percent import duty and a rule that says 20 percent of all imports must leave the country as exports, government sources told Reuters earlier this month. India used to be the world's biggest buyer of bullion until the government introduced the curbs in order to contain a record current account deficit."

• Gross Told El-Erian ‘Hell No’ Seeking to Stop Departure (BBG)
• How Caterpillar got bulldozed in China (Reuters)
• Davos Bankers Struggle to Convince Elite That Markets Are Safer (BBG)
• Lucrative Role as Middleman Puts Amazon in Tough Spot (WSJ)
• Arctic Air Blankets Northern U.S. as Texas to Get Snow (BBG)
• Lenovo buys IBM's server business in China's biggest IT acquisition (Reuters)
• SEC judge bars "Big Four" China units for six months over audits (Reuters)
• U.S. Accuses Security Background Check Firm of Fraud (WSJ)
• RIP BOE forward guidance: Bank of England rate rise is 'still some way off' - Fisher (Reuters)

BREAKING: @justinbieber arrested

— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) January 23, 2014

Following last night's surprise event, which was China's HSBC PMI dropping into contraction territory for the first time since July, which in turn sent Asian market into a tailspin, the most relevant underreported news was a speech by International Monetary Fund Deputy Managing Director Naoyuki Shinohara who said that "As long as steady progress is being made toward the 2% target, we do not see a need for additional monetary accommodation in Japan." He added that while exit from unconventional monetary policy "is still very likely some way off for the euro area and Japan, I believe that the moment to start planning is now." This warning - an echo of prcisely what we said yesterday - promptly roiled the Yen, sending it far higher and sending the EMini futures sliding by over 10 tick in no time: a drop from which they have not recovered yet.

Have we all bought into gang-mentality?

As we first reported one week ago, the first shadow default in Chinese history, the "Credit Equals Gold #1 Collective Trust Product" issued by China Credit Trust Co. Ltd. (CCT) due to mature Jan 31st with $492 million outstanding, appears ready to go down in the record books. In turn, virtually every sellside desk has issued notes and papers advising what this event would mean ("don't panic, here's a towel", and "all shall be well"), and is holding conference calls with clients to put their mind at ease in the increasingly likely scenario that there is indeed a historic "first" default for a country in which such events have previously been prohibited. So with under 10 days to go, for anyone who is still confused about the role of trusts in China's financial system, a default's significance, the underlying causes, the implications for the broad economy, and what the possible outcomes of the CCT product default are, here is Goldman's Q&A on a potential Chinese trust default.

Supporters of warfare, welfare, and Wonder Woman cheered last week as Congress passed a one trillion dollar “omnibus” appropriation bill. This legislation funds the operations of government for the remainder of the fiscal year. Wonder Woman fans can cheer that buried in the bill was a $10,000 grant for a theater program to explore the comic book heroine. That is just one of the many outrageous projects buried in this 1,582-page bill. Fortunately, in recent years more Americans have recognized that a constant defense of liberty requires opposing both war and welfare. The question facing Americans is not whether Congress will ever cut spending. The question is will the spending be reduced in an orderly manner that avoids inflecting massive harm on those depending on government programs, or will spending be slashed in response to an economic crisis caused by ever-increasing levels of deficit spending. Because politicians are followers rather than leaders, it is ultimately up to the people what course we will take. This is why it is vital that those of us who understand the dangerous path we are currently on do all we can to expand the movement for liberty, peace, and prosperity.

What are you afraid of, exactly? ConvergEx's Nick Colas notes we all have our phobias and fears, some logical and anchored in reality and others irrational but still powerful; but for the capital markets currently it seems there is no fear. The CBOE VIX Index started the year at 14.2 and has fallen to a close of 12.9 today. That move, Colas adds, has dragged the IVs of everything from U.S. large cap energy stocks to gold to corporate bonds lower in its wake.  Even expectations for Emerging Markets equity volatility are in retreat as we start 2014. But, when near term historical or implied volatility becomes this complacent, it seems appropriate to spend a little more time pondering what might go wrong.  Markets, after all, have the entire “What should go right” side of the trade well understood and reflected in current prices. In that spirit, here is the "Top 10" list of what might take us off the rails of complacency in 2014.

As we previously noted, the 85 richest people in the world have about as much wealth as the poorest 50% of the entire global population does.  In other words, 85 extremely wealthy individuals have about as much wealth as the poorest 3,500,000,000 do.  There is certainly nothing wrong with making money.  In fact, the founders of the United States intended for this nation to be a place where free markets thrived and where everyone could pursue their dreams.  Unfortunately, this country (along with the rest of the world) has moved very much in the opposite direction.  Today, we have a debt-based global financial system which is dominated by gigantic predator corporations and big banks.  Working together with national governments, these corporations and banks have constructed a system in which the percentage of all global wealth that is being funneled to the very top of the pyramid steadily grows over time. The Founding Fathers were very correct to be very suspicious of large concentrations of power.  In the early days of the United States, the federal government was very small and the size and scope of corporations was greatly limited.  Our nation thrived and a huge middle class blossomed. Sadly, over the past several decades the pendulum has completely swung in the other direction.

When facing a corrupt system, provide for yourself and your community those necessities that the system cannot or will not. Become independent from establishment-controlled paradigms. If you and your community do this, the system will have one of two choices: 1)  Admit that you do not need them anymore and fade into the fog of history, Or... 2)  Reveal its tyrannical nature in full and attempt to force you back into dependence. In either case, the citizenry gains the upper hand. We are hard-pressed to think of a better recent example of the non-participation principle in action than the rise of Mexican citizen militias in the Western state of Michoacan.

With every component of HSBC's China Manufacturing PMI either dropping or showong slower growth, it is hardly a surprise that the much-watched survey of economic strength dipped into contractionary territory. At 49.6 this is the lowest since July 2013 and dropped month-over-month by the most since May 2013. HSBC argues this is "domestic demand cooling" but new export orders tumbled at an accelerating pace as did employment. Of course, the silver lining is that because the prices components did not show acceleration then the PBOC has room to 'stimulate' to avoid repeating growth deceleration but that appears - despite today's further CNY 120 billion reverse repo - to not be the plan for the PBOC for now (given the 20-plus percent YoY gains in house prices). S&P futures fell 6 points on the news, AUDJPY is turmoiling, and Treasuries rallied 1bps.

It's not all ponies and unicorns in Davos today. Paul Singer's dismal views on financial fragility were followed up by a panel, as The Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reports, that poured cold water on the claims that the European crisis is over. Harvard professor Kenneth Rogoff said the launch of the euro had been a "giant historic mistake, done to soon" but EMU leaders are still refusing to take the necessary steps, and is squandering the "scarce resource" of its youth, badly needed to fortify an aging society as the demographic crunch sets in. But it is ex-Buba head Axel Weber that unleashed the ugly truth: "Markets are currently disregarding risks, particularly in the periphery...Europe is under threat. I am still really concerned."

After five years of aggressive Federal Reserve and government intervention in our monetary and financial systems, it's time to ask: Where are we? The "plan," such as it has been, is to let future growth sweep everything under the rug. To print some money, close their eyes, cross their fingers, and hope for the best. On that, we give them an "A" for wishful thinking – and an "F" for actual results. If we take a closer look at the projections, the idea that we're going to grow – even remotely – into a gigantic future that will consume all entitlement shortfalls within its cornucopian maw becomes all but laughable. Of course, the purpose of this exercise is not to make fun of anyone, nor to mock any particular beliefs, but to create an actionable understanding of the true nature of where we really are and what you should be doing about it.