Archive - Jan 2014

The first trading session of previous years has always been a whopper for those betting on central planning and capital flows. In fact, if one adds up the S&P performance on the first trading day of each year going back to 2009 (i.e., 1/2/13: + 2.54%, 1/3/12: + 1.55%, 1/3/11: + 1.13%, 1/4/10: + 1.60%, and 1/2/09: + 3.16%), one gets a whopping 10% return just on that one trading session. Which is why the fact that futures are glowing read, if only for the moment, may be disturbing for index investors and all those others who put all their faith, not to mention money, in St. Janet. Today's red open is hardly being helped by the 10 Year which continues to drift lower with the yield now at 3.04%, even as the Spanish 10 Year yield just got a 3 handle as well. At this rate the two streams should cross some time in the next two months. Just what a higher yield in the US vs Spain would imply for fair and efficient markets, we leave up to readers to decide.

How many people in the financial services industry understand how the financial system works?

We've all experienced it, we are dealing with someone who has all sorts of masters degrees, PhD's, and doesn't know the Federal Reserve is a private corporation, and even doesn't know the product their company is selling.

In the spirit of professionalism, we must keep these quotes anonymous, but certainly if you have survived long enough in Finance or read the Financial news regularly, you will not need any references because you've probably heard it before.

In a little under four minutes, Marc Faber explains to Fox Business' Dagen McDowell all that is wrong with the Central Planners 'current plan'. From a re-bubbled housing 'recovery' pricing real buyers out of the market ("homes do not offer a great opportunity today") to forced-renters paying increasing amounts of their stagnant wages, and the small percentage of ordinary Americans who actually benefit from a rising stock market, reducing their disposable income to which Faber sarcastically rants "well done, Mr. Bernanke." His advice, be diversified, don't BTFATH in stocks, and physical gold is always a good insurance.

Given that young people in Japan have lost interest in sex, with 45% of Japanese women 16-24 "not interested in or despise sexual contact," it is perhaps not entirely surprising that, as Japan Times reports, Japan's population fell by a record 244,000 in 2013. This further raises concerns over an ever-dwindling workforce that supports an ever-growing number of pensioners, with the proportion of people aged over 65 reaching nearly 40% by 2060.

We have gotten to a point when even the most tenured economists have finally admitted the truth, and in the process none other than JPMorgan itself has just issued a chart titled "The era of central bank-driven equity rallies."

Throughout 2013, the distortions created by intervention in once-free markets have left many scratching their heads. The interventions have worked - almost faultlessly - but for them to do so has required the suspension of one belief system (economic reality) and the adoption of another - namely, that everything will be OK because ... well, just because. Can the fantasy persist into 2014? Sadly, Grant Williams states "Yes. It most certainly can." Will it continue into 2014? Most likely. Will this new belief system become the new economic reality? Not a chance.

While US stocks are taking off, there are other, potentially much larger opportunities outside of it.

When newly elected Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe promised new deficit spending and pedal-to-the-metal monetary inflation, the progressive Keynesians were excited. And indeed, debasing the yen seemed to work for a few months, with analysts saying US policymakers should follow Japan’s lead. Yet now Japan’s recovery seems to be collapsing, leading its Cabinet to approve yet another “stimulus” package. Does anyone else have a sense of deja vu?

What is often unspoken is that we lie to others in order to be lied to by others.

Either the Volcker Rule is making Wall Street's menu of investment choices so unbearably limited, or traditional assets are so overpriced Wall Street won't even touch them with other people's money, but when it comes to allocating capital the smartest conmen in the room are coming up with some truly unorthodox products. Such as investing in ex-convicts in the form of 2000 newly released prisoners.

Are “Digital” Troops Being Sent Into Our Digital Devices Like British Troops Were Sent Into American Colonists’ Homes?

Is the U.S. consumer tapped out?  If so, how in the world will the U.S. economy possibly improve in 2014?  Most Americans know that the U.S. economy is heavily dependent on consumer spending.  If average Americans are not out there spending money, the economy tends not to do very well.  Unfortunately, retail sales during the holiday season appear to be quite disappointing and the middle class continues to deeply struggle.  And for a whole bunch of reasons things are likely going to be even tougher in 2014.  Families are going to have less money in their pockets to spend thanks to much higher health insurance premiums under Obamacare, a wide variety of tax increases, higher interest rates on debt, and cuts in government welfare programs.  The short-lived bubble of false prosperity that we have been enjoying for the last couple of years is rapidly coming to an end, and 2014 certainly promises to be a very "interesting year".

Obamacare officially went live at midnight. This means that 2.1 million Americans will be given a chance to exercise their new plans at hospitals and clinics across the country. And then the real glitches will begin. We reported two weeks ago that navigating the healthcare.gov labyrinth successfully and "signing up" for Obamacare is one thing; actually activating coverage by making a payment is something totally different. We added that "if people don’t pay by Dec. 31, insurers may end up stuck with a disproportionate number of sicker and costlier customers." It is this "shock" realization that one's Obamacare plan is not active until after the healthcare service has been rendered, that may hit as many as 50% of all enrollees, which means that of the 2+ million Americans who believe they have coverage, up to 1 million is about to be served with a bill which they can't afford.

Despite his various "nanny-state" failings (all of which have been prominently featured on these pages in the past) outgoing New York City mayor Mike Bloomberg has had an impressive track record: New York crime rates are at historic lows, the $72.7 billion budget is balanced, jobs are at an all-time high and a record 54 million tourists pumped money into the economy this year. Homicides have declined by almost 50 percent since Bloomberg became mayor in 2002, and this year’s total of 333 through Dec. 29 is 20 percent below last year’s record low. Of course, how much of this is due to Bloomberg's own actions and how much due to the "rising tide" wealth effect resulting from the Fed's actions that gentrified New York over the past 20 years thanks to Fed wealth-effect boosting policies and which have led to a perilously unstable financial system, is a different question. Regardless, as of midnight the billionaire mayor is no more. His replecament, Bill de Blasio, 52, is the first democrat to run City Hall in 20 years.

When it comes to political assassinations, 2014 is starting off with a bang, literally. Moments ago news broke that following an explosion in Prague, the Palestinian ambassador to the Czech Republic has just been killed.