Archive - Feb 13, 2014

Something funny happened on the Grecovery: the Grecession.... Actually, make that the Gepression. In a nutshell - according to Elstat, Greek unemployment in November rose to a record high on both a seasonally adjusted and unadjusted basis with 28% of the labor force without a job, the number of people unemployed rose to a record high 1.382 million, even as the number of labor inactive people keeps rising, hitting 3.377 million and on its way to catch up with the rapidly declining 3.55 million people employed, which incidentally in November also posted a new record low. And tying it all together was the Greek youth unemployment rate which posted a record high for November at 61.4%, and after a few months of declines which gave some hope that things are indeed improving is back to its old, soaring ways.

• Comcast Agrees to Buy Time Warner Cable for $45.2 Billion (BBG)
• Italian leadership squabble weighs as shares halt hot run (Reuters)
• Russia says Syria aid draft could open door to military action (Reuters)
• China trust assets rise 46% in 2013  (WSJ), China Trust Assets Surge to $1.8 Trillion Amid Default Risks  (BBG)
• Australian Unemployment Jumps to 10-Year High (BBG)
• Tea Party Scorns Republicans as House Lifts Debt Ceiling (BBG)
• Peso plunge forces Argentine soya hoarding (FT)
• BNP Paribas Net Falls After $1.1 Billion U.S. Legal Charge (BBG)
• Hacking Joins Curriculum as Businesses Seek Cyber Skills (BBG)
• Android's 'Open' System Has Limits (WSJ)
• Blackstone-Fueled Single-Family Home Boom Lifts Chicago (BBG)

With so much of the recent bad news roundly ignored or simply "priced in" and blamed on the snow, it is unknown just what it is that catalyzed the overnight round of risk-offness, but whatever the ultimate factor, it first dragged the Nikkei lower by 1.8%, as we noted previously, then sent the SHCOMP down by 0.55%, then ultimately dragged the USDJPY below the key 102 support area which in turn pulled US equity futures to set the scene for a red open (with no POMO and no Yellen testimony today which also was canceled due to snow), and, putting it all together, suddenly Europe too is back on the scene, with a blow out in Italian yields driven by the realization that the Letta government is on the edge of collapse, in a deja vu moment to those hot summers of 2011 and 2012.

S&P 500 futures remain up 15 points on the week but have retraced 16 points from today's highs; Dow futures are down 150 points from today's highs; and Nikkei 225 futures are down almost 500 points from their Yellen-Tuesday peak (and down 200 on the week) as USDJPY fades back towards the critical 102.00 level. Emerging Market FX is fading rapidly also.