Archive - Feb 23, 2014
Bitcoin Prices Slide After Mt.Gox CEO Resigns From Foundation Board
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/23/2014 23:42 -0500
In what appears yet another straw on the camel's back of Mt.Gox (following the re-freeze of account withdrawals), the Bitcoin Foundation this evening reported that:
"effective immediately, Mt. Gox has submitted their resignation from the board of directors."
Bitcoin prices on the dying exchange tumbled on the announcement after quite an extreme volatility day - which saw prices swing from $151 to $239 and then down to $190 on the news.
PLA Officer: China Must Establish South China Sea ADIZ; Will "Fight When Appropriate"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/23/2014 22:00 -0500
A Chinese military officer has said that establishing a South China Sea ADIZ is necessary to China’s national interest. Li Jie's comments come on the heels of remarks made by U.S. Captain James Fanell, director of intelligence and information operations at the US Pacific Fleet (full clip below) on China's preparation for war with Japan (and other regional nations) and sources saying that China’s Central Military Commission has directly given Chinese military the instruction: “Fight if it is appropriate to fight.”
US And Israel Quietly Provide Military Support And Parts To Iran, Which In Turn Is Arming Syria
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/23/2014 21:19 -0500
To summarize: in an act of complete disregard for the official diplomatic song and dance, both Israel and the US are now providing military support to Iran, which in turn is providing military support to Syria, which is also getting military support from Russia. And now, just to make things more interesting, the same labyrinth of "military support" is about to be unleashed in the Ukraine, whose western half is just as likely getting arms and military equipment (not to mention funding)from the West under the table, while Russia, whose main Black Sea port is in the Ukraine's Crimean peninsula, is arming the Eastern part of the Ukraine.
What can possibly go wrong?
Global Economy Collapses Despite 4th "Warmest" January On Record
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/23/2014 20:17 -0500
The last 3 weeks have seen the macro fundamentals of the G-10 major economies collapse at the fastest pace in almost 4 years and almost the biggest slump since Lehman. Despite a plethora of data showing that 'weather' is not to blame, US strategists, 'economists', and asset-gatherers are sticking to the meme that this is all because of the cold on the east coast of the US (and that means wondrous pent-up demand to come). However, as the New York Times reports, for the earth, it was the 4th warmest January on record.
The 6 Types Of Twitter Conversation
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/23/2014 19:43 -0500
Social media is increasingly home to civil society. As Pew Research notes, it is the place where knowledge sharing, public discussions, debates, and disputes are carried out. As the new public square, social media conversations are therefore as important to document as any other large public gathering. By analyzing many thousands of Twitter conversations, Pew identified six different conversational archetypes. The following infographic describes each type of conversation network and an explanation of how it is shaped by the topic being discussed and the people driving the conversation... the structure of these Twitter conversations says something meaningful about political discourse these days.
The Tyranny Of Models (Or Don't Fear The Reaper)
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/23/2014 18:47 -0500
The tyranny of models is rampant in almost every aspect of our investment lives, from every central bank in the world to every giant asset manager in the world to the largest hedge funds in the world. There are very good reasons why we live in a model-driven world, and there are very good reasons why model-driven institutions tend to dominate their non-modeling competitors. The use of models is wonderfully comforting to the human animal because it’s what we do in our own minds and our own groups and tribes all the time. We can’t help ourselves from applying simplifying models in our lives because we are evolved and trained to do just that. But models are most useful in normal times, where the inherent informational trade-off between modeling power and modeling comprehensiveness isn’t a big concern and where historical patterns don’t break. Unfortunately we are living in decidedly abnormal times, a time where simplifications can blind us to structural change and where models create a risk that cannot be resolved by more or better modeling! It’s not a matter of using a different model or improving the model that we have. It’s the risk that ALL economic models pose when a bedrock assumption about politics or society shifts.
Hope, Change, & Economic Reality (In Two Cartoons)
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/23/2014 18:02 -0500
Presented with no comment...
Why No Capex Recovery?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/23/2014 17:21 -0500
As happens at the end of every year, sellside analysts and economists, all predicted that this year would be different, and the long overdue capex spending would finally be unleashed. Apparently they had far greater visibility on this matter, than on the topic of snowfall in the winter, and its disastrous impact on a $17 trillion economy, whose Q1 GDP growth forecast has cratered from 3% at the start of the year, to barely half that number currently. One of the firms that preached that the CapEx recovery is imminent is none other than Goldman Sachs, the same firm that also year after year predicts a new golden age for the US, only to see its forecast crash and burn some 4-6 months later, couched in the tried (or is that now trite) and true scapegoatings: snow, unrest in Europe, inflation or deflation in Japan, the usual. However, this time may indeed be different, and the same Goldman has just released a piece wondering "Why no capex recovery?" (despite the firm's own forecasts to the contrary -just recall David Mericle's "Capex: The Fundamentals Remain Strong" which now in retrospect is completely wrong).
Citi Warns "Housing Sentiment Got Carried Away"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/23/2014 16:35 -0500
The divergence between the NAHB index and other housing indicators has continued to suggest that sentiment was “getting ahead of itself" and as Citi's Tom Fitzpatrick warns would suggest that the qualitative nature of the overall housing recovery is less robust than one would like. Housing should pause/consolidate possibly even for most of this year as the weather argument that is trotted out by so many commentators does not seem to hold up to even a basic examination with the worst data coming from the West Coast. Simply put, Citi warns, we think housing sentiment got carried away as it did into 1994 and 1998 post the housing/savings and loan crisis of 1989-1991.
Russia To Add "Stealth" Subs To Mediterranean Force
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/23/2014 15:45 -0500
Many have been surprised by the lack of public response by Russia to the ongoings in Ukraine. Aside from some comments by Siluanov, the response has been concerning in its absence from the iron fist. However, quietly and with little new coverage, RiaNovosti reports that the combat capability of Russia’s naval task force in the Mediterranean will increase significantly - for the first time in decades - following the first deliveries of Varshavyanka-class submarines (with advanced stealth technology dubbed "black holes in the ocean") to the Black Sea Fleet.
The Sovereignty Series - You Can’t Make Me!
Submitted by Cognitive Dissonance on 02/23/2014 15:05 -0500By accusing someone else of being responsible for my emotional outbursts I am in essence avoiding responsibility for my own actions. By blaming others for my ‘State of Mind’ I’m assigning myself to the ‘role’ of victim status.
Reviving The 'Real World' Scenario That's Disappeared From Government Reports
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/23/2014 14:59 -0500
"For 50 years or so the federal government has deliberately and to an increasing extent misstated probable future budget deficits. Democrats and Republicans are guilty. The White House is guilty. And so is Congress. Private firms that deliberately misrepresent their financial statements in this fashion would be guilty of a crime… The magnitude of the misrepresentation is breathtaking."
- Former St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President William Poole.
EU Offers Conditional "Aid" For Ukraine's "Catastrophic, Pre-Default" Economic State
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/23/2014 13:58 -0500
"There is no money in Ukraine's Treasury account," exclaimed 'Interim President' Oleksandr Turchynov to the Ukrainian parliament; adding that the Ukraine economy is in a "catastrophic state."
*THERE ARE PROBLEMS WITH BANKING SYSTEM AND HRYVNIA: TURCHYNOV
*PROBLEMS WITH PENSION FUND ARE "COLOSSAL": TURCHYNOV
*UKRAINE'S ECONOMY IS IN A 'PRE-DEFAULT' SITUATION: TURCHYNOV
Hardly surprising given the months of protest; but with Russia 'conditionally' postponing its EUR2bn 'loan', the Europeans are riding to the nation's aid with promises of EUR20bn (if Ukrainian authorities meet certain conditions). But, as the map below shows, a great deal of the nation's wealth lies in the eastern (pro-Russia) region.
Setting the Stage for March: The Week Ahead
Submitted by Marc To Market on 02/23/2014 13:39 -0500A dispassionate and analytic of the macro developments for the week ahead.
- Marc To Market's blog
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Seen On An ATM In Western Australia
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/23/2014 13:33 -0500
With iron-ore stockpiles at record highs in China amid the escalating cash-for-steel financing debacles, one can only imagine the squeeze that is about to occur on the banks of a nation that is almost entirely economically dependent on said iron-ore mining production... which made us think when we saw this sign "justifying" holding low cash amounts in an Aussie bank ATM...




