Archive - Feb 25, 2014

Twice in recent years, Russia has suspended gas supplies, or notably raised prices, as the somewhat well-known "trump card" of Russia's oil and gas supply to Ukraine (and Europe for that matter) remains Putin's easiest option for clenching his iron-first against the divided nation. Following a pre-emptive move in November by Ukraine to diversify its energy supply,  Russia had reduced the price of gas for the highly indebted Ukraine in December (to entice Ukraine under Russia's wing); but, after recent events, Dmitry Medvedev signaled on Monday that the price could be raised again. However, today we find that Ukraine's state oil and gas company, Naftogaz, has slashed gas imports from Russia's Gazprom by stunning 80% in February as Ukraine tries to show Russia it can't be pushed around of course, with limited (and more expensive) alternative supplies, we fear this could well shoot them in the foot. That and the whole being out of money thing too won't help.

The story of former Jefferies MBS trader Jesse Litvak, who is currently on trial in New Haven federal court accused of defrauding investors of $2 million by lying on trades of mortgage-backed securities, is well known to regular readers: it was summarized previously in "We Are Doneski Gorgeous!" - How Bond Trading On Wall Street Really Works. In that article we showed, more than just an isolated case of alleged fraud, that when it comes to OTC trades which do not transact on an exchange but instead take place over the phone between a salesman and a buyer, it is all a game of lies, fraud and misinformation... however one which both it is a game of lies, fraud and misinformation. Today, Mr. Litvak confirmed as much when he said, quoting Bloomberg,  "My lying is part” of making deals, he said, “although I generally consider myself a truthful person."

Russia's earlier "default" warning (or threat) has not just impacted Ukrainian bonds but the currency is crashing. The Hyrvnia is down a stunning 6.8% today - the biggest drop since Feb 2009 - to a record low 9.8 to the US Dollar. This crisis is far from over and we would expect capital controls in 3...2...1...

More humor from Mt.Gox, which has once again "temporarily" suspended all transactions. Can it just make it permanent already, and get it over with?

This morning's US equity "market" behavior is 'volatile' to say the least and of course all human-driven??! A JPY-pump-driven surge into day-session open suckered just enough in to leave vaccuum and when someone pulled the rug from under the JPY shorts right at the open (bashing USDJPY back down to the all critical 102.00 level) stocks tanked... AUDJPy stabilized and stocks surged back to it and are now treading water around VWAP. While all this was occurring bond yields went only one way - down; and the USD Index jumped notably. Given the all-time-highs, conviction in stocks seems anything but strong.

Russian bonds had rallied for 2 days on the heels of the ouster of Yanukovych and a hope-fueled strategy (supported by Goldman's buy-buy-buy recommendation) that Europe or the IMF would save the day and fund them back to solvency. However, Russian deputy finance minister Storchak has a different perspective...

*UKRAINE FACES HIGH PROBABILITY OF DEFAULT: RUSSIA'S STORCHAK

And that has sent 3-month Ukraine bond prices tumbling once again...

Despite fresh record highs for stocks, previously exuberant Conference Board consumer confidence was unable to make new highs and instead tumbled by the most in 4 months, missing expectations by the most since October. This catches down to Bloomberg's less confident consumer and suggests the hopes and dreams of a nation looking for moar multiple expansion may be drifting away...

There was a time when Vietnam was America's staunchest proxy war foe. This is not those times which explains why yesterday the president signed a landmark, controversial and not to mention hypocritical deal with Vietnam in which allows the U.S. to sell nuclear fuel and technology to its former foe, which will then be allowed to further enrich it. Why (because there is always a reason when the US does something so unexpected, and especially when nuclear power is involved)? Simple: as the Hill explains, the US "aims to help guarantee Vietnams' energy independence as China asserts a more prominent role in the region." Of course, the last time the US sought to prevent Vietnam's affiliation with a foreign superpower, the results were quite disastrous. One can only hope this time it's different.

Tesla is set to announce a plan this week to build the world’s largest battery factory. The plan will include the involvement of Panasonic and other partners, and it will be so big that Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk is calling it a “gigafactory.” The motivation for building the factory is multiple... and the implications could go beyind the EV market.

While the sell-side community urgently continues to pimp Seasonally Adjusted Case Shiller data, despite the Case-Shiller index creators' own wishes that NSA data be used, it is becoming increasingly difficult to mask the fact that home price momentum is fading. This is precisely what one sees when looking at the change in unadjusted prices, which in December posted the second sequential decline in a row, dropping by -0.08%, following a -0.05% drop in November for the 20-City Composite index, and the biggest sequential decline since November 2012. The annual increase of 13.42% was in line with the expected 13.4%, and was the third month in a row of declines in annual house prices, something we have known for a while, and which the 2 month delayed Case Shiler index finally confirmed. Finally, we are grateful to Case Shiller for being the first to admit that it was not all the weather: "Some of the weakness reflects the cold weather in much of the country. However, higher home prices and mortgage rates are taking a toll on affordability." Let's hope there is no rain in the Spring and sun in the summer then as everything else is already bad and getting worse.

Concerns about the possibility of the Chinese property bubble bursting affecting economic growth in China and the world is supporting gold.

The last 7 days have seen the unstoppable 'sure-thing' one-way bet of the decade appreciation trend of the Chinese Yuan reverse. In fact, the 0.95% sell-off is the largest since 1994 (bigger than the post-Lehman move) suggesting there is clear evidence that the PBOC is intervening. The fact that this is occurring with relatively stable liquidity rates (short-term repo remains low) further strengthens the case that China just entered the currency wars per se as SocGen notes, intending to discourage arbitrage inflows. For the Chinese authorities, who do not care about the level of their stock market (since ownership is so low), and specifically want to tame a real-estate bubble, this intentional weakening is clearly aimed at trade - exports (and maintaining growth) as they transition through their reforms. The question is, what happens when the sure-thing carry-trade goes away?

The last time JPMorga had an investor day, Jamie Dimon explained to Mike Mayo why he is richer than him (and pretty much anyone else). This year, Jamie will be more focused on explaining to 8,000 JPM workers why after firing 16,500 people in consumer and mortgage banking, the bank will now let go another 2K and 6K in those same two groups (which will bring total mortgage and consumer banking headcount reductions between 2013 and 2014 to at least 17K and 7.5K, respectively). This may be tricky especially in the context of, you know, the housing and economic recovery, and stuff.

In 1999, 86% of all vehicles made in the US were produced by a United Auto Workers (UAW) worker. Today that share stands at a dismal 54% as Bloomberg reports UAW workers assembled 5.91 million of the 10.9 million cars and trucks made in the US last year. The UAW's recent failure to organize employees at an assembly plant in Tennessee (operated by VW) underscores how more and more cars from overseas automakers are built here. Membership of the UAW has fallen a stunning 75% since 1979.

• Turkish PM says tapes of talk with son a fabrication (Reuters) but opposition confirms authenticity, and national TV carriers cut parliament when played live
• Inside the Showdown Atop Pimco, the World's Biggest Bond Firm (WSJ)
• Ex-Jefferies Trader’s Customers Say Lies Common Tactic (BBG)
• Bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox disappears in blow to virtual currency (Reuters)
• The messenger mania is spreading: SoftBank Said to Seek Stake in Naver’s Line Messaging Unit (BBG)
• Ukraine Replaces Central Bank Head (BBG)
• Yup, an actual headline: Harsh weather tests optimism over U.S. economy (Reuters)
• Hiring of Law Grads Improves for Some (BBG)
• Easy Currency Bet Gets Harder as the Chinese Yuan Tumbles (WSJ)
• In Ukraine turbulence, a lad from Lviv becomes the toast of Kiev (Reuters)