Archive - Feb 4, 2014

Today's modest bounce in stocks - considerably removed after-hours - does not provide much hope for those looking to buy the dip with the Dow still down over 1000 points year-to-date. In fact, as we discuss below, troubling news just continues to pour in from all over the world... For those that are not interested in the technical details, what all of this means is that global financial markets are starting to become extremely unstable. Consider the following...

Worried about “pre-crime?” What about “pre-crash?”

The geniuses at the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTS) are so concerned about your “safety,” they have decided to take it into their own hands and make it mandatory that your car wirelessly communicate with other vehicles on the road. Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx went so far as to say the technology could save “thousands of lives and even prevent accidents in the first place.” The concept of “pre-crash” has been born.

US and Japanese stocks began to fall the moment the bell rang in NYC on the end of the US day-session. By the times futures closed 15mins later, the S&P had already lost 6 points and the exuberance in the Nikkei had snapped back to USDJPY reality (100 points off its highs). As the evening progressed the dead-cat-bounce died with US and Japanese stocks tumbling to day-session lows. Dow futures are down 110 from the highs; S&P futures are down 16 points from the US session highs; and Nikkei futures - not helped by the 19th month in a row of falling YoY base wages - are testing 14,050, having dropped 300 points from the highs and removed all day-session gains. Stocks are re-crisis-ing as USDJPY tests back towards 101.

"Financial systems are unstable with excessive risk-taking," warns PIMCO's now solo guru Bill Gross, telling Bloomberg TV's Stephanie Ruhle that in a "Soros reflexivity... Once you get the levered system going, it hardly knows when and where to stop." Credit, as we have noted, has been relatively more stable (though less positive on the the way up) Gross notes and "the way to get rich in the past was to borrow money and to lever [up]," but Gross explains that now, "assets are artificially priced... from this point forward, double-digit returns, getting rich on leverage, no. You better look elsewhere for – for your profits," and not Asia. China is "the mystery meat" of emerging market countries, Gross cautions, "nobody knows what’s there and there’s a little bit of baloney."

The biggest fear the market currently has is not the ongoing crisis in the Emerging Markets, not the suddenly slowing economy, not even China's credit bubble popping: it is that Bernanke's successor may have suddenly reverted to the "Old Normal" - a regime in which the Fed is not there to provide the training wheels should the S&P suffer a 5%, 10% or 20% (or more) drop. Whether such fears are warranted will be tested as soon as there is indeed a bear market plunge in stocks - the first in nearly three years (incidentally the topic of the Fed's lack of vacalty was covered in a recent Reuters article). So, assuming that indeed the most dramatic change in market dynamics in the past five years has taken place, how does one trade this new world which is so unfamiliar to so many of today's "younger" (and forgotten by many of the older) traders? And, more importantly, how does one look for the signs of a bottom: an Old Normal bottom that is. Courtesy of Convergex' Nicholas Colas, here is a reminder of what to look forward to, for those who are so inclined, to time the next market inflection point.

We are sure that tomorrow's ADP report will be taken as either, a) proof positive that December's miss in NFP was a weather-related artifice hiding the true awesomeness of the US recovery (and this no un-taper); or b) the most recent macro data is indeed weak and job creation have peaked for this cycle (despite a few trillion in balance sheet expansion by the Fed). However, as the following chart shows, any surprise beat (or miss) in ADP is entirely useless as a predictor of payroll surprises...

Because the ultimate outcome of this monetary cycle hinges on how, when, or if the Fed can unwind its unwieldy balance sheet, without further damage to the economy; most likely continuing stagnation or a return to stagflation, or less likely, but possible hyper-inflation or even a deflationary depression, the Bernanke legacy will ultimately depend on a Bernanke-Yellen legacy. But what should be the main lesson of a Greenspan-Bernanke legacy? Clearly, if there was no pre-crisis credit boom, there would have been no large financial crisis and thus no need for Bernanke or other human to have done better during and after. While Austrian analysis has often been criticized, incorrectly, for not having policy recommendations on what to do during the crisis and recovery, it should be noted that if Austrian recommendations for eliminating central banks and allowing banking freedom had been followed, no such devastating crisis would have occurred and no heroic policy response would have been necessary in the resulting free and prosperous commonwealth.

Americans may have watched the Super Bowl in record numbers but it was another addiction that saved the Denver fans from a night of sadness. According to PornHub.com, which we are told is a popular pornography website, there was a dramatic rise in viewership in the Denver, CO area - especially compared to that of the Seattle, WA region. The traffic divergence really began at half-time  as sad tissues turned into happy tissues; but by the end of the game Denver traffic was 11% above average (compared to 17% below average in Seattle). While Payton may not have been able to take the game into his hands in the 2nd half, it seems the proud Broncos fans knew exactly what to do.

XKCD published this cartoon in reference to ESPN and the like, but it’s even more applicable to CNBC and its ilk. Just to be clear, I’m not slamming these hosts and traders. I’m sure that they are overwhelmingly smart, honest people who believe that what they say are useful truths from their own perspectives. They are not hypocrites. But they are performers. And like any performer, there is a larger game being played with their words. The larger meaning of the statements made on CNBC has absolutely nothing to do with specific investment advice or news. CNBC really could not care less about the actual content of what is being said. The purpose of CNBC’s game is not to tell you WHAT to think, but HOW to think, that thinking about investing in terms of some sell-side analyst’s anodyne story about fundamentals or some trader’s breathless story about open option interest is smart or wise or what all the cool kids are doing. Why? Because CNBC can create inexpensive content essentially at will to fill this demand, allowing them to sell advertisements and take cable carriage fees. 

As if we didn’t know it already! The Western world is the ultimate destination for corruption, pulling a swift one and swiping the valuables from the inside pocket of the guy’s pants standing in front of you as he keeps his beady eye on the economy.

A month ago, Nigeria's state-owned National Petroleum oil company (NNPC) said it had accounted for all of the $49.8 billion in revenues that were supposed to paid to the government explaining it had spent over $10 bn on subsidies, repairs, and losses on crude oil inventory - "no money is missing," they exclaimed. However, according to Bloomberg, Nigeria's Central Bank governor Lamido Sanusi (often seen at the footer of those emails everyone gets) proclaimed to the government's senate finance committee that NNPC hasn't accounted for $20 billion in revenue. "There is $20 billion that has not come back to us - the burden of proof is on NNPC." That is 8% of GDP! Perhaps dropping a line to some Western central bankers for a temporary bridge loan (because we are sure the money is there) would be appropriate.

The farce that is the so-called stock "market" gets more and more mindblowing every day. Following yesterday's record high volume in VIX futures and options, this morning saw one stock - the $4bn market cap WhiteWave Foods represent a stunning 27% of all quotes in this morning's pre-open. As Nanex notes in this great analysis, HFT algos generated 2.04 million quotes which created... drum roll please... 3 trades.

"Many will remember Ben Bernanke for classic central bank stabilizing actions taken during the fall 2008 panic, including emergency loans to banks and swap lines to foreign central banks. But historians might also consider actions the Fed took before and after that panic...

Many argue that QE has not reduced unemployment, but has diminished the Fed’s independence and credibility, offsetting the effects of adopting a numerical inflation target. Now, only a year after the latest round of QE began, the Fed is struggling with how to unwind it, just as many had warned."

Until around 3pmET, stocks had been slowly but surely rising - albeit disconnected from credit's reality - in a slow dead-cat bounce of a day. When the Puerto Rico news hit, stocks tumbled to reconnect with credit and VWAP and looked like things were going to get ugly when we were 'supposed' to have a green day of hope. VIX was instantly smashed lower again and the machines lifted the S&P 500 cash index to the highs of the day just into the US close... and then on no news, no blaring headline of catalclysmic regime change, S&P 500 futures tumbled 6 points to the day-session's late lows. That's why the big boys play late...