Archive - Feb 6, 2014

No sooner had the ECB statement been released with its disappointing lack of unsterlizied QE or negative rate promises than European stocks mini-flash-crashed. Most notable was Germany's DAX which collapsed over 200 points only and was promptly halted in the futures markets. Only to magically re-appear after the halt almost unchanged...

For once, the vast majority of economists was correct, with 62 of 66 predicting accurately what the ECB would do today: nothing. At least so far - moments ago Mario Draghi's central bank just announced no cuts across all three major rates.

• Draghi as ECB Master of Suspense Keeps Investors on Edge (BBG)
• Abe lays out detailed plan for expanding defense powers (Nikkei)
• Inflation Fuels Crises in Two Latin Nations (WSJ)
• Obama walks into crossfire of Asian tensions (FT)
• Harvard Makes Professor Disclose More After Blinkx Slides (BBG)
• Hedge Funds Rework Currency Positions in Market Drop (BBG)
• Canada, U.S. Strike Tax-Information Sharing Deal (WSJ)
• Indonesia calls for greater clarity from Fed on tapering (FT)
• Sony to cut 5,000 jobs, split off PC, TV operations (Reuters)

Over 92%, or 62 of 66 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, expect no surprises from the ECB in half an hour. Whether that guarantees a "surprise" we leave it up to readers, but here courtesy of ABN Amro's head of macro research Nick Kounis, are the four possible decisions scenarios that Mario Draghi can reveal to the world today.

Today the lingering problems of the "emerging" world and concerns about the Fed's tapering take a back seat to what the European Central Bank may do, which ranges from nothing, to a rate cut (which sends deposit rates negative), to outright, unsterilized QE - we will find out shortly: with 61 out of the 66 economists polled by Bloomberg looking for no rate changes from the ECB today it virtually assures a surprise . However, despite - or perhaps in spite of - various disappointing news overnight, most notably German factory orders which missed -0.5% on expectations of a +0.2% print, down from 2.4%, the USDJPY has been supported which as everyone knows by now, is all that matters, even if it was unable to push the Nikkei 225 higher for the second day in a row and the Japanese correction persists.

If gold dips below $1,200 per ounce for a “sustained” period, serious production cutbacks are likely. Declining scrap or recycled gold supply, which fell to a five-year low in 2013, exacerbates a “tight supply picture”, said Artigas.