Archive - Feb 7, 2014

In the below video, we discuss the power of the lone dissenter to connect the dots of global economic disenfranchisement for billions of people worldwide.

In what was a shocking and disappointing at the same time decision, overnight the German Constitutional court, which had been contemplating the legality of the ECB's still non-existent OMT program, conceived in July 2012 to prevent the collapse of the Eurozone and still only existing in Mario Draghi's head as it has zero legal documentation supporting it, said that, in its judgment, the ECB's Outright Monetary Transactions program likely exceeded the central bank's powers. "There are important reasons to assume that [the OMT] exceeds the European Central Bank's monetary policy mandate and thus infringes the powers of the member states, and that it violates the prohibition of monetary financing of the budget," the German court said Friday. "Subject to the interpretation by the Court of Justice of the European Union, the Federal Constitutional Court considers the OMT decision incompatible with primary law," the German court said.

• Here is why AAPL bounced off $500: Apple Repurchases $14 Billion of Own Shares in Two Weeks (WSJ)
• German Court Refers OMT Decision to Europe's Top Court (WSJ)
• Inflation Fuels Crises in Two Latin Nations (WSJ)
• U.S. job growth seen snapping back from winter chill (Reuters)
• Google to own $750 million Lenovo stake after Motorola deal closes: HK exchange (Reuters)
• Frigid Winter Spells Trouble for U.S. Economy (BBG)
• Winter Games to open, Putin keen to prove doubters wrong (Reuters)
• Regulators Ready to Proceed on Bank Leverage Limit (WSJ)
• Abe Eyes Window for Biggest Military-Rule Change Since WWII (BBG)

It's that time again, when a largely random, statistically-sampled, weather-impacted, seasonally-adjusted, and finally goalseeked number, sets the mood in the market for the next month: we are talking of course about the "most important ever" once again non-farm payroll print, and to a lesser extent the unemployment rate which even the Fed has admitted is meaningless in a time when the participation rate is crashing (for the "philosophy" of why it is all the context that matters in reading the jobs report, see here). Adding to the confusion, or hilarity, or both, is that while everyone knows it snowed in December and January, Goldman now warns that... it may have been too hot! To wit: "We expect a weather-related boost to January payroll job growth because weather during the survey week itself - which we find is most relevant to a given month's payroll number - was unusually mild." In other words, if the number is abnormally good - don't assume more tapering, just blame it on the warm weather!