Archive - Feb 2014

The last 7 days have seen the unstoppable 'sure-thing' one-way bet of the decade appreciation trend of the Chinese Yuan reverse. In fact, the 0.95% sell-off is the largest since 1994 (bigger than the post-Lehman move) suggesting there is clear evidence that the PBOC is intervening. The fact that this is occurring with relatively stable liquidity rates (short-term repo remains low) further strengthens the case that China just entered the currency wars per se as SocGen notes, intending to discourage arbitrage inflows. For the Chinese authorities, who do not care about the level of their stock market (since ownership is so low), and specifically want to tame a real-estate bubble, this intentional weakening is clearly aimed at trade - exports (and maintaining growth) as they transition through their reforms. The question is, what happens when the sure-thing carry-trade goes away?

The last time JPMorga had an investor day, Jamie Dimon explained to Mike Mayo why he is richer than him (and pretty much anyone else). This year, Jamie will be more focused on explaining to 8,000 JPM workers why after firing 16,500 people in consumer and mortgage banking, the bank will now let go another 2K and 6K in those same two groups (which will bring total mortgage and consumer banking headcount reductions between 2013 and 2014 to at least 17K and 7.5K, respectively). This may be tricky especially in the context of, you know, the housing and economic recovery, and stuff.

In 1999, 86% of all vehicles made in the US were produced by a United Auto Workers (UAW) worker. Today that share stands at a dismal 54% as Bloomberg reports UAW workers assembled 5.91 million of the 10.9 million cars and trucks made in the US last year. The UAW's recent failure to organize employees at an assembly plant in Tennessee (operated by VW) underscores how more and more cars from overseas automakers are built here. Membership of the UAW has fallen a stunning 75% since 1979.

• Turkish PM says tapes of talk with son a fabrication (Reuters) but opposition confirms authenticity, and national TV carriers cut parliament when played live
• Inside the Showdown Atop Pimco, the World's Biggest Bond Firm (WSJ)
• Ex-Jefferies Trader’s Customers Say Lies Common Tactic (BBG)
• Bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox disappears in blow to virtual currency (Reuters)
• The messenger mania is spreading: SoftBank Said to Seek Stake in Naver’s Line Messaging Unit (BBG)
• Ukraine Replaces Central Bank Head (BBG)
• Yup, an actual headline: Harsh weather tests optimism over U.S. economy (Reuters)
• Hiring of Law Grads Improves for Some (BBG)
• Easy Currency Bet Gets Harder as the Chinese Yuan Tumbles (WSJ)
• In Ukraine turbulence, a lad from Lviv becomes the toast of Kiev (Reuters)

#Wow! CHP leader Kilicdaroglu: there will be other evidences come forward..so my advice to Erdogan, take a helicopter & flee the country!!

— ilhan tanir (@WashingtonPoint) February 25, 2014

All eyes were on China overnight, where first the PBOC drained a quite substantial CNY 100 billion in liquidity via 14 day repos in the month following the biggest credit injection on record, pushing those worried about China's credit schizophrenia to the edge, and then things got even more bizarre when in an act of clear PBOC intervention, the CNY dropped to the lowest since August 2013 as concerns about the global carry trade's impact on China (as noted here previously) start to reverberate. We will have more to say about China's Yuan intervention, but what should be noted is that the Shanghai Composite has tumbled nearly 10% in the past week, and was down another 2% overnight and is once again just barely above 2000, a level it can't seem to get away from for years (which is fine: recall that the real bubble in China is not the stock but the housing market). Chinese property stocks dropped to 8-month lows as concern continues about bank's withdrawing some liquidity for the asset class.The USDJPY drifted along and after rising to a resistance level of about 102.600 has since slide just shy of its 102.20 support area which means US equity futures are now in the red, and concerns that the S&P 500 may not close at a new record high are start to worry the technicians.

In the annals of internet conspiracy theories, none is more pervasive than the one speculating paid government plants infiltrate websites, social network sites, and comment sections with an intent to sow discord, troll, and generally manipulate, deceive and destroy reputations. Guess what: it was all true.

UPDATE: Mt. Gox website and feed is now offline

Much as we are not surprised, given our previous discussion of the end of major Bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox, this evening's release by Coinbase must be the final nail in the final coffin of the Tokyo-based firm...

"The purpose of this document is to summarize a joint statement to the Bitcoin community regarding Mt.Gox. ... As with any new industry, there are certain bad actors that need to be weeded out, and that is what we are seeing today. "

And scene...

A special message to financial parasites of the TBTF kind...

While the guests on Friday's CNBC closing bell were giddy with excitement about earnings, US stocks, and 'the recovery' being "a lot stronger than people give it credit for", Rick Santelli asked a simple question, if it's all so great why is the Fed still printing billions of dollars each month? A disquieted crowd of asset-gatherers attempted a response but made the mistake of uttering the most inflammable 7 words Santelli could hear... "Where would we be without the government?" What ensued is worth the price of admission...

The dismal trail of dead bankers continues. As The Journal Star reports, a successful Lincoln businessman and member of a prominent local family died last week. Former National Bank of Commerce CEO James Stuart Jr. was found dead in Scottsdale, Ariz., the morning of Feb. 19. A family spokesman did not say what caused the death. This brings the total of banker deaths in recent weeks to 9 as Stuart is sadly survived by three sons and four daughters.

If the economy is really "getting better", then why have millions upon millions of formerly middle class Americans been pushed to the point of utter despair?  The stories that you are about to read are absolutely heartbreaking. But if you listen to the mainstream media, you would think that happy days are here again for America.  Just check out some of the bizarre headlines that I have collected in recent weeks... CNBC: "Stop whining! The US economy is in good shape" USA Today: "Economists: U.S. will see better growth in '14" Newsday: "Why the economy isn't doomed" Most Americans will buy into this propaganda and will never see the next major economic crisis coming until it is too late to do anything about it.

With US equity markets hitting fresh all-time highs (as much of the rest of the world is 10-15% off its highs and falling), the meme that rules the "common knowledge" talking-head world is "US decoupling" or yet another version of 'cleanest dirty shirt'. Well, as much as we hate to steal the jam from many an asset-gatherer's donut, the BIS provides us with a simple quick efficient guide to show that no, not all...as the BIS finds the US business cycle is entirely co-dependent on Asian (and Emerging Market) economic cycles. Perhaps it is snowing everywhere in the world?

Following last year's realization that mortgage origination as a product line is effectively dead (which has forced such origination dependent banks as Wells Fargo to return to subprime lending in hopes of keeping the revenue stream alive, knowing full well how it all ends), and that only investors and "all cash" buyers are keeping the myth of the housing recovery alive on their shoulders, banks fired tens of thousands of workers in the mortgage business hoping to stem the bottom line bleeding from the collapse in revenues. It turns out that they didn't fire enough and/or that the housing market contraction was far worse than even the banks, in their most, pessimistic forecasts, had expected. Case in point: JPMorgan, which after firing 15,000 in its mortgage business, has just revealed it will fire thousands more.

The new normal has morphed from a slow-to-no recovery to a "strong" recovery hampered only by bad weather. When data is bad, it's "due to bad weather;" when data is good, it's the recovery... As Google 'quantifies' below, bad weather is 83 times more worrisome than good weather is positive...