Archive - Feb 2014

As we observed yesterday, the market action over the past weeks can be summarized with one word: untaper. Specifically, in light of recent data, the Koolaid addicts had hoped that the crunch in the economy would be sufficient for the Fed to taper the taper, and slow down its removal of crutches, which ironically means that the media should have been focusing on the real causes of the winter swoon - i.e., the tapped out consumer and not blaming snow in the winter. Alas, for all those who had hoped that Yellen would promptly shift to Untaper mode, Fed uber dove Williams has just one present: a glass of (appropriately) ice cold water.

In the last year, China has increased the military activity and actions in the South China Sea around the so-called Nine Dash Line — China’s expansive claim into the region which is in conflict with several other international claims. As USNI reports, Capt. James Fannell, deputy chief of staff intelligence and information operations for PACFLEET, notes that while China has long trained for an amphibious invasion of Taiwan during military exercises but has expanded its training to include a similar attack on Japanese holdings in the East China Sea. He concludes, "the PLA has been given the new task to be able to conduct a short sharp war to destroy Japanese forces in the East China Sea following with what can only be expected a seizure of the Senkakus or even a southern Ryukyu [islands]."

Now that we have the full history of foreign Treasury purchases in 2013, we know the following: in December 2012 total US paper held by foreigners was $5,573.8 billion; one year later it rose to $5.794.9 billion or a $221 billion increase. So how does this look in the context of QE? In the past year, courtesy of the Fed's $1 trillion in TSY and MBS purchases, Ben Bernanke purchases some $552 billion in Treasurys, or about 150% more than all foreigners combined! Suddenly the need for MyRA is becoming all too clear...

Just as we warned earlier, the stealing of the weapons cache and labeling of the break-away region as having undertaken "terrorist acts" has led to the military getting involved:

• *UKRAINE ARMY GIVEN POWER TO CHECK CIVILIAN VEHICLES
• *UKRAINE ARMY GIVEN POWER TO USE WEAPONS ON UKRAINIANS: MINISTRY

Under the "anti-terrorist" operation, Ukraine is a close to civil war as it has been so far. As Martin Armstrong concludes: "there is no peaceful resolution" no matter how many sanctions and condemnations the West makes.

With the Winter Olympics underway in Sochi, Russia is again in the global spotlight – and President Vladimir Putin is taking the opportunity to present his country as a resurgent power. But, beneath the swagger and fanfare lie serious doubts about Russia’s future. In fact, long-term price trends for the mineral resources upon which the economy depends, together with Russia’s history (especially the last two decades of Soviet rule), suggest that Putin’s luck may well be about to run out.

"Victory" This morning's USDJPY 102 stick-save was just the momentum ignition required to send the Russell 2000 and S&P 500 to critical 'unchanged' levels... "Mission Accomplished"... The Dow and Trannies remain down over 2% as the Nasdaq leads the way up 2.4% on the year. It would seem that despite 'economists' proclamations that the terrible maco data is 'weather' driven (and this transitory), they are also seeing it as bad news... which is - in our new normal - great news for liquidity-fueled bubbles (which the Fed will remind us later in the Minutes do not exist). US Macro data has plunged to six-month lows.

Extortion and skimming create their own antidotes. As the costs of skimming, extortion and corruption reach new heights, the savings to be gained by bypassing the Status Quo systems also increase. The problem is its own solution. Whether we try to stop the Status Quo, or let it stop, it WILL stop. Debt and other state-cartel schemes enclose and imprison the bottom 90% while leaving the illusions of liberty, democracy and "prosperity" intact so the debt-serf inhabitants of the home-country neocolonial plantations love their servitude. The incentives to escape the home-country plantation are rising in parallel with the skimming of the state-cartel Elites.

Who cares about few birds?

By now the weather apologists will have let you know that the latest economic data disappointment - housing starts and permits - both of which crashed in January, is solely due to the weather (the same apologists who will tell you that any good news is due only to the "recovery"). Alas, this time even the most cursory glance beneath the headlines reveals just how sad the lies truly are.

Expect a wild ride...

With Putin hoping that they can just keep it from going full civil war for a few more days, Ukraine continues to slide towards a dismal result. This morning sees the next level of escalation in the break-away Western region:

• *UKRAINE'S SECURITY SERVICE SAYS WEAPONS CACHE STOLEN: INTERFAX
• *UKRAINE SECURITY SERVICE SAYS PROTESTERS SEIZED 1,500 GUNS
• *UKRAINE SERVICE SAYS PROTESTERS SEIZED 100,000 ROUNDS OF AMMO
• *UKRAINE SERVICE SAYS PROTESTERS GUILTY OF `TERRORIST ACTS'

And with that, the 'excuse' the military needed to get involved as Interfax reports the Ukraine's SBU starts "Anti-terrorist" operation in the Western region of Ivano-Frankvisk. With 25 dead and 241 injured, according to the AP, we suspect these numbers are sadly just the start.

Despite our insistence that their was nothing new in the BoJ's loan ceiling hike and lack of QE extension (and Goldman's 'this is already priced in' perspective), it still took the machines that are running USDJPY almost 36 hours to figure it out. USDJPY has retraced the entire 100 pip swing and has broken back below the crucial 102.00 level this morning. Time for some more jawboning about the potential for more QE - even as Kuroda insisted last night to the Diet that the government's tax hikes occur (if for no other reason to ensure this does not escalate into the 'monetization miasma' that they fear the market would believe). Of course, as we approach the US open, we would expect the usual ramp-job to lift stocks.

It seems once again that 'economists' and 'analysts' misunderstood the weather in winter is cold. Housing Starts dropped a stunning 16% MoM (from an upwardly revised December data) for the biggest miss since June 2013 (and 8 of last 10 months missed expectations). This is the biggest MoM drop in 3 years. Building Permits - more problematic for the weather blamers - also plunged (by 5.4%) missing expectations by the most since June. However, what is the biggest slap in the face for the 'weather-blamers' is the collapse in Permits for the West (-26%) while most other regions improved.

For years, the Netflix streaming business has been growing like a parasite, happy to piggyback on established broadband infrastructures, where the broadband companies themselves have becomes competitors to Netflix for both distribution and content. Until now. Emboldened by the recent Net Neutrality ruling, which has put bandwidth hogs like Netflix which at last check was responsible for over 30% of all downstream US internet traffic broadband providers are finally making their move, and in a preliminary salvo whose ultimate compromise will be NFLX paying lots of money, have started to throttle Netflix traffic. The WSJ reports that the war between the broadband-ers and the video streaming company has finally emerged from the "cold" phase and is fully hot.