Archive - Feb 2014

In light of its 19th quarter of losses in a row, calls for a Federal bailout, and recent consideration of adding a Bitcoin exchange to its non-bank financial services (via a "postcoin"), we thought a glimpse how "postal" the USPS is set to become was useful. Some will call it progress of course but as the following chart shows, the number of US Postal Service employees has fallen to 50-year lows (and would and could be more) - "The Postal Service is doing its part within the bounds of law to right-size the organization,"  blaming federal mandates that restrict how it can conduct business and excessive funding requirements for its employee pension plan.

Trust is gone and credit is going and debt is sitting between a rock and a hard place with its grubby hands pressed together, praying that it will be forgiven, forgotten, or overlooked a little while longer. By the way, the reason trust and credit are gone is because oil is no longer cheap and world economies can’t grow anymore. They can’t afford to run the day-to-day operations of a techno-industrial society. They can only pretend to afford it. The stock markets are mere scorecards for players who can only lie and cheat now to keep the game going. Somewhere beyond all the legerdemain and fraud, however, there remains a real world that is not going away. We just don’t know what it will look like when the smog of fraud clears.

Switzerland's surprise decision in favor of curbing EU immigration, was greeted by UKIP's Nigel Farage as "wonderful news for national sovereignty and freedom lovers throughout Europe." With 50.3% of Swiss voters backing the "Stop Mass Immigration" bill proposed by right-wing populists, AFP reports that Farage (who has been outspoken over immigration and sovereignty problems in Europe) added "a wise and strong Switzerland has stood up to the bullying and threats of the unelected bureaucrats of Brussels." As we noted previously, with the EU elections rapidly approaching non-centrist status quo parties are quickly gaining attention as 'the protest vote' gains traction.

On the back of more subsidies, this time from China, TSLA shares are storming higher today. Up over 6% today to new record highs just below $200, we thought it fascinating that as debt-laden GM sees its Enterprise Value slide, TSLA's enterprise value is now 66% of GM's. We are sure this all makes sense somewhere deep in a growth investor's mind. When TSLA was birthed into the public markets in 2010, GM was over 20-times it size, now it is just 1.5 times...

We have looked at US markets since Independence and Western Markets since The Middle Ages; but to really comprehend how far we have come, we need to press back to the dawn of civilization. 5000 years of interest-rates and commodity history and a trend is very clear as epochal events drive volatility.

A recent article at the BBC discusses the findings of a report by EU Home Affairs commissioner Cecilia Malmstroem on corruption in the EU. According to the report, the cost of corruption in the EU amounts to €120 billion annually. We would submit that it is likely far more than that (in fact, even Ms. Malmstroem herself concurs with this assessment). This is of course what one gets when one installs vast, byzantine bureaucracies and issues a veritable flood of rules and regulations every year. More and more people are needed to administer this unwieldy nightmare of red tape, and naturally the quality of the hires declines over time due to the sheer numbers required. And that is merely what they actually know about...One gets an inkling of how big the problem may really be when considering the case of Greece.

The Chinese new year may be over which following a last minute bailout of its insolvent Credit Equals Gold Trust product was largely uneventful, but already concerns about domestic liquidity are once again rising to the surface following reports that China’s banking regulator ordered some of the nation’s smaller lenders to set aside more funds to avoid a cash shortfall, which as Bloomberg notes signal rising concern that defaults may climb. Which brings us to the question du jour: is the PBOC is laying the groundwork for what developed markets would call an open-ended liquidity injection which can be use to bail out one and all banks on an a la carte basis. Or, in the parlance of our times, the biggest QE bazooka of all because with total banking assets of nearly $25 trillion, said bazooka better be ready to fire at a moment's notice?

While infamous ruler-user Laszlo Birinyi does note that "this market is not going to be like last year," he remains full bulltard as to where stocks are headed. As Bloomberg notes, Birinyi says stocks have too much momentum to make betting against them a winning strategy and the S&P will hit 1,900 by the end of the second quarter. "Short sellers have probably learned their lesson," he squeaks adding thatthe current pullback signals "healthy skepticism that sets the stage for more gains." One question - how was momentum in 1929? 1987? 1999? or 2007?

How quickly emerging markets’ fortunes have turned. Not long ago, they were touted as the salvation of the world economy – the dynamic engines of growth that would take over as the economies of the United States and Europe sputtered. Economists at Citigroup, McKinsey, PricewaterhouseCoopers, and elsewhere were predicting an era of broad and sustained growth from Asia to Africa. But now the emerging-market blues are back. This is not the first time that developing countries have been hit hard by abrupt mood swings in global financial markets. The surprise is that we are surprised. Economists, in particular, should have learned a few fundamental lessons long ago...

Two weeks ago we learned what many had already known just by extrapolating simple trends: in 2013 Chinese net imports of gold from Hong Kong alone rose to over 1000 tons of gold, or 1158 to be precise - 100 tons more than China's official gold holdings of 1054 tons which have not "budged" in the past four years - following another significant net monthly import of 94.8 tons of the precious metal in December (and 126.6 gross). This means total gold imports in 2013 was more than double the 557 tons imported in 2012, and as a result China has now officially surpassed India as the world's biggest buyer of gold (although the title may swing back to India once gold price controls are relaxed, or if the government were to count all the gold smuggled into the country via illegal channels).

Crisis was averted. Or was it just put off for another day?

Size matters, it would seem, in the world of elite hedge fund managers. George Soros' Quantum Fund had its 2nd-best year on record, adding $5.5bn (22%) to the pound-breaking billionaire's horde and has now shifted above Ray Dalio's Bridgewater fund as the most successful hedge fund of all time. As The FT reports, since inception in 1973, Quantum has generated almost $40bn. Four other funds including Tepper's Appaloosa, Mandel's Lone Pine, and Klarman's Baupost also made more than $4 bn for their investors. Since they were set up, the top 20 hedge funds have made 43 per cent of all the money made by investors in more than 7,000 hedge funds.

The flow of gold from west to east is confirmed as China reports huge increase in recorded imports.

Around six months after first tweeting his admiration for Apple's cash stockpile and a "large position" in the largest company in the world, it would appear every business media's favorite activist is throwing in his chips.

• *ICAHN SAYS NO REASON TO PERSIST WITH APPLE BUYBACK PROPOSAL

Having been there to lift the stock above $500, with it back around $500, and following his recent "add", he now agrees with ISS that there are "other options on the spectrum of allocating capital." Perhaps he read our post on domestic cash over the weekend?

If we strip away obscuring narratives, we can clearly see that the two employment sectors (healthcare and higher education) that have expanded rain or shine for decades have functioned as gigantic make-work projects. However, that growth has started to slow for the simple reason that they've run out of oxygen: we can no longer afford their expansion or their out-of-control costs. Much cheaper and more effective systems are within reach, if only we look past failed models and politically powerful cartels and fiefdoms.