Archive - Mar 14, 2014

It would appear that pending wars in Europe, freezing snow storms (and droughts) in the US, and Asian credit concerns have finaly taken their toll on US consumer confidence. At 79.9 relative to an expectation of 82.2 this is the biggest miss since Dec 2012 and lowest since Nov 2013.Current conditions rose modestly but the economic outlook fell by its most in 5 months. UMich confidence remains notably below the July 2013 peak levels (which correspond quite coincidentally to the same 4 year 4 month cycle we have seen in the prior 2 cycles) despite stocks have made higher highs since then as the decoupling remains in place.

With the Bank of England recently denying any collusion with dealers to manipulate FX rates and exclaiming "it was not our job to go hunting for the rigging of markets," the WSJ reports that none other than that bastion of trust The Federal Reserve examined key FX benchmarks months before global regulators sounded alarms over the manipulations... but took no action.

A US Secretary of State walks into a meeting with a Russian Foreign Minister. The Russian asks: "why the long face?"... As for what happens in Ukraine this weekend, the AFP picture below says it all.

Gold was gently levitating once again overnight but in the last few hours both gold and silver have taken off (with the latter breaking through pre-Putin levels) and the former breaking above $1385. Equity prices are tumbling from solidly green levels overnight - tracking EURJPY all the way lower - and Treasury bonds are well bid (-3bps today) with 10Y yields down 17bps on the week.

Producer Prices in the US (less the all important food and energy - which no on uses) fell 0.2% month-over-month - the biggest drop since July 2013 - and missing expectations of a 0.1% rise. This is only the third month of 'disinflation in the last 18 months. Perhaps even more relevant is the dramatic slowdown in prices for final demand services which dropped 0.3% (the biggest drop since May 2013) and equal slowest rise year-over-year since the 'recovery' began.

While Russia has been massively piling up troops next to Ukraine's eastern border, one thing that was missing to allow the crossing of the border was a provocation, aka the proverbial spark to give Moscow the green light to "defend" Russian citizens in the East. It may have just gotten that last night, when as previously reported, clashes in the eastern city of Donetsk between pro-Ukraine and pro-Russian civilians turned lethal, killing at least one person and dozens injured. Needless to say, this escalation was just the green light Russia needed. As Reuters reports, the Russian Foreign Ministry, responding to the death of at least one protester in Ukraine's eastern city of Donetsk, repeated President Vladimir Putin's declaration of the right to invade to protect Russian citizens and compatriots  - "Russia is aware of its responsibility for the lives of compatriots and fellow citizens in Ukraine and reserves the right to take people under its protection." But perhaps the biggest news so far this morning is that the EU is considering visa bans to 13 Russian politicians and industry leaders, which according to Germany's Bild, include the headest hocnho of all: Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller.

Until today, the prevailing theory surrounding the mysterious disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 was either catastrophic midair disintegration and/or terrorism. That changed overnight, following reports by various news agencies that the Boeing 777 was deliberately flown hundreds of miles off course, in a westerly direction toward India's Andaman islands, heightening suspicions of foul play among investigators, as reported by Reuters. And like that the theory shifts from one of terrorism to hijacking and sabotage, ostensibly by highly skilled operators, yet considering the results, one gone horribly wrong.

• Ukraine anxiety triggers flight to safety, stocks tumble (Reuters)
• Woodrow Wilson’s Ukraine Failure Foreshadows West’s Dilemmas (BBG)
• Fortress Executives Join Peers Selling Stock After Rally (BBG)
• 303 Deaths Seen in G.M. Cars With Failed Air Bags (NYT)
• Putin Deports Executives for Speeding as Sanctions Loom (BBG)
• Russia blocks internet sites of Putin critics (Reuters)
• China Bond Risk Exceeds Ireland as Defaults Unavoidable (BBG)
• China H-Shares Post Biggest Weekly Drop Since October (BBG)
• Surge in Rail Shipments of Oil Sidetracks Other Industries (WSJ)
• Blackstone’s Home Buying Binge Ends as Prices Surge (BBG)

It has been a relatively quiet overnight session, aside from the  already noted news surrounding China's halt on virtual credit card payments sending Chinese online commerce stocks sliding, where despite an ongoing decline in the USDJPY which has sent the Nikkei plunging by 3.3% (and which is starting to impact Abe whose approval rating dropped in March by a whopping 5.6 points to 48.1% according to a Jiji poll), US equity futures have managed to stay surprisingly strong following yesterday's market tumble. We can only assume this has to do with short covering of positions, because we fail to see how anyone can be so foolhardy to enter risk on ahead of a weekend where the worst case scenario can be an overture to World War III following a Crimean referendum which is assured to result in the formal annexation of the peninsula by Russia.