Archive - Mar 16, 2014

A dispassionate discussion of the major forces impacting the investment climate in the week ahead. 

The Battle for Ukraine Was Planned in 1997 … Or Earlier

From a strictly empirical perspective, the Keynesian theory is a disaster. Positivism wise, it’s a smoldering train wreck. You would be hard-pressed to comb through historical data and find great instances where government intervention succeeded in lowering employment without creating the conditions for another downturn further down the line. No matter how you spin it, Keynesianism is nothing but snake oil sold to susceptible political figures. Its practitioners feign using the scientific method. But they are driven just as much by logical theory as those haughty Austrian school economists who deduce truth from self-evident axioms. The only difference is that one theory is correct. And if the Keynesians want to keep pulling up data to make their case, they are standing on awfully flimsy ground.

"No provocations have been reported. The situation is quiet and under control," notes Crimea's Prime Minister Sergei Aksynov (despite plenty of chatter of pro-Ukraine buildings being attacked by pro-Russian supporters in Donetsk and Kharkiv). However, what is perhaps more important is that Interfax reports, voter turnout at Sunday's referendum on Crimea' future status had reached 73% by 6 p.m. (8 p.m. Moscow time), according to a posting on the referendum's website. That is higher than every US presidential election since 1900. European leaders remain dissatisfied with this "illegal and illegitimate" vote, demand Russian forces drop back to pre-crisis levels, and are preparing new EU sanctions for Monday.

My investigation into gold trading irregularities, including the time around the London fixes, initially began after reading the work of the late Adrian Douglas, along with Dmitri Speck.

"President Putin has started a game of Russian roulette and I think the United States and the West have to be very clear in their response," states Sen. Foreign Relations Committed Chair Robert Menendez among a slew of Sunday morning talk-show rhetoric from US politicians with the White House's Dan Pfeiffer adding "President Putin has a choice about what he's going to do here. Is he going to continue to further isolate himself, further hurt his economy, further diminish Russian influence in the world, or is he going to do the right thing?" As the "sham referendum" continues, Reuters, however, reports that Ukraine's acting defense minister believes Russia and Ukraine have agree a truce until March 21st.

Oh, no! Bitcoin's end is near! Reggie Middleton was finally proven wrong!

With Malaysian authorities frustrated (and seemingly confused),  and US and Chinese government offering "help" to solve this increasingly mysterious disappearance of the Boeing 777-200ER over a week ago, we thought a quick summation of all that we know would be useful. The possibilities remain numerous but it appears the latest line of investigation is the pane vanished through "deliberate action" with the airline pilots coming under increasing scrutiny.

More of the same. Via the Kremlin:

PUTIN TELLS MERKEL RUSSIA WILL RESPECT CHOICE MADE BY CRIMEANS
PUTIN TELLS MERKEL CRIMEA REFERENDUM ON JOINING RUSSIA IS LEGAL

Even as the West (and NATO) continues to reject any legitimacy of the referendum.

Several warning signs are gathering steam...

One must build the walls of our own cage higher than we are willing to climb if we are to remain safely confined within our own mind.

The much anticipated, if largely moot, Crimean referendum vote whether to break away from Ukraine and join Russia, began early on Sunday, even as Kiev is accusing Moscow of rapidly building up its armed forces on the peninsula in "crude violation" of an international treaty.