Archive - Mar 27, 2014

There is just too damn much oil stuck in the United States with no real market for it to go to as the rising PADD 3 inventories pointed out in the latest EIA reports.  

Are you thinking of going to college?  If so, please consider that decision very carefully.  You probably have lots of people telling you that an "education" is the key to your future and that you will never be able to get a "good job" unless you go to college.  And it is true that those that go to college do earn more on average than those that do not.  However, there is also a downside. 

Over the past month, we have explained in detail not only how the Chinese credit collapse and massive carry unwind will look like in theory, but shown various instances how, in practice, the world's greatest debt bubble is starting to burst. One thing we have not commented on was how actual trade pathways - far more critical to offshore counterparts than merely credit tremors within the mainland - would be impacted once the nascent liquidity crisis spread. Today, we find the answer courtesy of the WSJ which reports that for the first time in the current Chinese liquidity crunch, Chinese importers, for now just those of soybeans and rubber but soon most other products, "are backing out of deals, adding to a wide range of evidence showing rising financial stress in the world's second-biggest economy."

East Asian work culture is world renowned for its long hours and exhausted laborers. Japanese salary men hustling to catch the last train home, their sleeping bodies stretched out along the seats (sometimes in curiously uncomfortable positions), is an image familiar to many people across the world. Despite having the some of the world’s best-kept records on the subject, however, death from overwork is far from unique to Japan. Instances of it have been known to occur the world over, not least in China, which now reportedly leads the world in work exhaustion-related deaths.

Russian State Duma and Federation Council members are considering the imposition of sanctions on US businesses as discussions are increasingly focused on retaliatory sanctions on the US. "If the US cares little about losing business contacts with Russia through imposing its sanctions," then Duma Deputy Dengin warns of measures to set limits to representative offices of companies in Russia that are owned by US nationals.

UPDATE: *TURKEY'S DAVUTOGLU SAYS LEAK IS 'DECLARATION OF WAR': TURKIYE

As we noted here, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan had blocked Twitter access to his nation ahead of what was rumored to be a "spectacular" leak before this weekend's elections. Then this morning, amid a mad scramble, he reportedly (despite the nation's court ruling the bans illegal) blocked YouTube access. However, by the magic of the interwebs, we have the 'leaked' clip and it is clear why he wanted it blocked/banned. As the rough translation explains, it purports to be a conversation between key Turkish military and political leaders discussing what appears to be a false flag attack to launch war with Syria.

The entire capital market structure has become mispriced.

A few weeks ago, Canadian authorities decide to scrap its controversial 'investor' visa scheme (which had allowed waves of rich Hong Kongers and Mainland Chinese to immigrate and blow the real estate bubble ever bigger). This was met with hollers of derision from the Chinese demanding retribution. What was less well known, until now, is the massive surge in interest from wealthy Chinese in a US program offering 'investors' green cards in exchange for cash. "There is a panic being created in China," warned one immigration lawyer, with Chinese nationals now accounting for more than 80% of visas issued, compared to just 13% a decade ago. It seems the Chinese are in a hurry to get their money out.

Are any of the leaders at the heads of the Western world ‘statesmen’ in the true sense of the word? Do any of them, from Cameron, to Obama, via Merkel and Hollande have any idea what the definition of such an illustrious, historically-based politician means?

When Abe, Kuroda, and their merry men unveiled their latest idea - Abenomics - the world's macro tourists piled in and spent every waking second convincing the rest of the world's suckers that this time was different for Japan. We, along with Kyle Bass and a short list of other realists, warned "be careful what you wish for." It seems tonight's data is the best example yet of the print-and-grow rock and inflate-and-die hard place that Abe finds himself between. Multi-year highs in inflation (pressing on to the BoJ's target) combined with a total collapse in household spending (lowest in 27 months). Abe is cornered; and JPY and the Nikkei are confounded for now.

$20 billion yesterday for a "virtual" reality corporation... but it gets better, as Property Guru reports, Singapore-based game developer Planet Arkadia is offering investments in what is believed to be the world’s first million dollar virtual property. It offers the 'investor' a chance to participate (by spending real money) in the "vibrantly growing economy of Planet Arkadia" - which we note is entirely virtual. Top, much?

If you are not Professor Paul Krugman you probably agree that Washington has left no stone unturned on the Keynesian stimulus front since the crisis of September 2008. By the time the “taper” is over later this year (?) the Fed’s balance sheet will exceed $4.7 trillion - $4 trillion in new central bank liabilities in six years. All conjured out of thin air.  Professor Krugman proposing to “do something”... In short, Krugman wants to double-down on the lunacy we have already accomplished. Unfortunately, we are presently nigh onto “peak debt”; there is no “escape velocity” because the Fed’s credit channel is broken and done. Going forward, the American people will once again be required to live within their means, spending no more than they produce. By contrast, Professor Krugman’s destructive recipes are entirely the product of a countrafactual economic universe that does not actually exist. He wants us to borrow and print even more because our macro-economic bathtub is not yet full. And that part is true. It doesn’t even exist.

The last few years have seen the high-tech darlings spending their freshly printed funny-money currency (shares) on all sorts of money-making (but mostly losing) ideas...

It has happened over and over again throughout history.  Nations, empires, and dynasties have made bad economic decisions which lead to their own destruction.  The scenario usually goes something like this--one generation sacrifices and works hard to overcome global challenges and creates an economic powerhouse, which in turn allows it to project military power.  Follow on generations take their elders work for granted and ignore and even denigrate the fruits of hard labor, they just want the benefits and start giving away the spoils for free.  The next generation indulges itself in sloth and corruption and is overrun by the barbarians.

This week, markets have been driven by position squaring and P&L management.  There have been extraordinary price movements in various commodities and currencies due to extreme weather, the decline in the Chinese Renminbi, capital flight, Fed taper, and geo-politics.  Such P&L volatility is causing decisions to be made in other, seemingly uncorrelated markets, due to the need to manage P&L risk. These movements are of elevated concern because the investment climate of recent years has created a herd mentality.  Now that global stimulus is being withdrawn, those trades are under attack and a mini-contagion is unfolding. "The apt analogy is a playground see-saw where investors (and Fed) have a seat firmly on the ground and risk assets dangling in the air... The Fed would like to balance the see-saw, but history suggests the chances are infinitesimal.”