Archive - Mar 28, 2014

Tyler Durden's picture

Putin Calls Obama To "Draw Attention To Ukraine Extremists", Obama Replies With Request For Putin To Pull Out





Moments ago the White House made a fine point of announcing that - for the first time since the Ukraine crisis erupted and led to the unanswered annexation of Crimea by Russia - Putin called the White House first to discuss what was vaguely enough described as "a diplomatic resolution to the crisis in Ukraine." However a more detailed read through of what actually happened reveals that there is less here than meets the eye (as a rational person would suspect since any truly good news would have been divulged during market trading hours).

 

Tyler Durden's picture

China & Germany Sign Yuan-Settlement Pact And Obama Heads To Saudi Arabia





Lots of moves appear to be afoot on the macro front at the moment. Today's deal between the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and Germany’s Bundesbank seems quite significant given the importance of Germany within the global economy generally and the E.U. specifically. And with that in mind, let’s not forget that Obama is currently in Saudi Arabia trying to restore ties with the Medieival Kingdom, i.e., he is trying to figure out a way to arm al-Qaeda in Syria without the American public finding out about it. It appears that becoming entrenched in a Syrian civil war is still very much on the table...  The months ahead should be very interesting to say the least.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

West Desperate To Break Russia-China Axis, But "Money Talks" Straight To Putin





Among other things, there is one major obstacle to the West's "costs" imposition on Vladimir Putin and his Russian economy - China. So far, a Xi Jinping has described, China has been a "sleeping lion" but today "the lion is awake" and with the Chinese President's first trip to Europe, as WSJ reports, western leaders are hoping to enlist his support over the crisis in Ukraine. However, privately, European diplomats concede that China's relationship with Russia remains solid and that was evidenced by their most recent investment in Russia's $10bn state-backed Direct Investment Fund (which just happens to be run by a former Goldman Sachs banker. It seems "money talks" once again and China will likely continue to play the middle ground.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Stephen Roach: Is This End Of Chinese Central Planning?





“Isn’t it now time for China to abandon the concept of a growth target?”

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Jim Rogers: "America Is Shooting Itself In The Foot" Over Russia





There is no reason for Russia to worry about the western sanctions it is facing now over the Ukrainian issue since "Moscow has too many other trade partners to work with," Jim Rogers explains in this interview, adding that "America is shooting itself in a foot getting the most of our world to pushing China and Russia closer together." Simply put, he warns, "I don’t see any sanctions strategy that they can use that will hurt Russia worse than it will hurt the people imposing those sanctions... I think Mr. Obama is making the fool of himself yet again."

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: The Government Inflation Scam





Ask yourself: Why do governments finance their expenditures with inflation rather than simply by raising taxes?

The answer is a simple one: With taxes, everyone knows that the government’s the culprit because people can see that it’s a government agency that is collecting the taxes. With inflation, government can blame what is happening on the private sector, where prices are rising in response to the government’s continued debasement of the currency.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Economic Inequality In The USA (In One Comprehensive Chart)





Inequality – long ignored – is now centre stage in debate about economic policy around the globe. As Tony Atkinson and Salvatore Morelli note, the 2007-2008 collapse of the global financial system and the subsequent economic downturn/debt crises have acted as a catalyst for growing anxiety around the increasing dispersion of incomes within most advanced economies. In an effort to show that "we are not 'all in it together'", the two professors have created The Chartbook of Income Inequality.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

A U.S.-Saudi Move to Lower Oil Prices?





Could the U.S. unleash a flood of oil from the strategic petroleum reserve that would drive down prices in order to punish Russia? While the idea has been kicked around over the last few weeks – most recently by George Soros – it has also been dismissed as not a serious option. Some say the impact of an oil sale, if it actually succeeded in lower prices, would be temporary. Saudi Arabia could cut back on production to keep oil prices at their current levels. Others decried the idea as contrary to the objective of the SPR, which has been setup to be used only in cases of emergency. However, any collusion would be a problem since the Saudi King is convinced the U.S. is “unreliable,” and relations between the two countries hit a low point after Obama’s back and forth over air strikes on Syria last year.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Moody's Puts Russia On Downgrade Review; Cites Event Risk, Investor Sentiment, And Weakening Economy





Hot on the heels of what S&P said was not a "politically motivated" shift to rating watch, Moody's (who did not downgrade the USA and are not currently in a lawsuit over such terrible misrepresentations) has decided now is the time to put Russia on rating downgrade watch. The decision was triggered by 3 key factors: the weakening of Russia's economic strength, potential shifts in investor sentiment, and susceptibility to event risk. Full report below...

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Ukraine Shocks Population With Staggered 100% Heating Price Increase While Restricting Cash Use





In a TV address to his divided nation, Ukraine's PM Yatsenyuk stunned the people by first suggesting heating prices would rise gradually, then confirming a plan that will see prices rise 100% in the next 2 years (and almost 200% by 2017) as the cost of imported Russian gas is expected to be around $500 (up from the current $84). This standard of living crushing move was then followed by tougher capital controls, restricting cash purchases to around $1300 per person per day after the Central bank basically admitted "amid a tense situation in the money markets" it was broke. And all of this comes on the heels of what can only be described as a vague pro-forma comment by US and EU governments over the riots by the "Right Sector" ultranationalists that clearly did not want to upset the state-sponsored thugs too much.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Rick Santelli Exposes The Real Enemy (And It's Not Deflation)





Since the crisis, and more likely decades before, we (the people) have been apparently 'happy' to have a small group of people in charge of picking winners and losers. "While free markets may have their hiccups," CNBC's Rick Santelli notes, when it comes to allocating resources, "the aggregate behavior of the marketplace is better than individuals." Crucially, Santelli blasts, if you're a saver, you understand now that you weren't picked as winner." In fact, some might even say the 'saver' is the enemy of the recovery, but according to the Central Banks, as Rick rages, it is deflation that is the enemy. Bankers and governments love inflation because "if you owe a lot of people a lot of money, there's nothing better than to pay it back with cheaper money."

 

Phoenix Capital Research's picture

The Fed Has Shifted Gears… And the Markets Aren't Paying Attention





As we noted earlier this week, the Fed is growing increasingly concerned of a bubble forming in the financial markets. Previously we noted that Janet Yellen was issued warnings regarding this.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

5 Things To Ponder: Words Of Caution





Howard Marks once wrote that being a "contrarian" is a lonely profession. However, as investors, it is the downside that is far more damaging to our financial health than potentially missing out on a short term opportunity. Opportunities come and go, but replacing lost capital is a difficult and time consuming proposition. So, the question that we will "ponder" this weekend is whether the current consolidation is another in a long series of "buy the dip" opportunities, or does "something wicked this way come?" Here are some "words of caution" worth considering in trying to answer that question.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Small Caps Plunge To Worst Week In 22 Months





'Growth' continues to underperform 'Value' as once again today's early gains - used by many to indicate that the worst is over - were decimated rather quickly especially in the Biotechs (new cycle lows) and momos (NFLX & FB ugly). KING's failed IPO persists (-4% today) and now down over 17% from its IPO day highs. The S&P held miraculously above the red-line year-to-date but Nasdaq, and Russell joined the Dow in negative territory as growth is now underperforming for the year. The USD index ended the week unchanged (with weakness in JPY offset by strength in AUD and CAD) but the JPY-carry trade decoupled from stocks in the late-day today rather ominously. Bonds flattened on the week (30y -6bps, 5Y +3.5bps) with some profit-taking on flatteners today. 'Growth' commodities rallied with oil and copper up 2 and 3% respectively as PMs dropped 3% as Emerging Markets had their best week in almost 7 months.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

The Upside Case Of A College Education In One Chart





Late last night we presented a scathing report highlighting the extensive downside case why a college education may be best described as a "waste of time and money." But surely it can't be all "cons" - after all, with student debt now well over an all time high $1 trillion (ignoring that a substantial amount of that notional is used for anything but) there must be a reason why year after year record amounts of young adults scramble into the warm embrace and soothing promises about the future of a college education... which has never cost more.  Why? In order to present a balanced view, on the chart below we show the conventional wisdom about the "pros" of higher learning.

 
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