Archive - Mar 2014
March 31st
Frontrunning: March 31
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/31/2014 06:27 -0500- Apple
- Barclays
- Chicago PMI
- China
- Citigroup
- Corporate Restructuring
- Credit Suisse
- Delphi
- Deutsche Bank
- Evercore
- Fail
- General Motors
- Glencore
- Hong Kong
- Lloyds
- Mack-Cali
- MagnaChip
- Merrill
- Natural Gas
- Nomination
- Nuclear Power
- Prudential
- RBS
- Real estate
- Reality
- Reuters
- Romania
- Royal Bank of Scotland
- Stress Test
- Third Point
- Ukraine
- Wells Fargo
- Yuan
- US, Russia talks fail to end Ukraine deadlock (AP)
- Russian forces 'gradually withdrawing' from Ukraine border (AFP)
- Turkish PM Erdogan tells enemies they will pay price after poll (Reuters)
- And Goldman arrives: Credit markets open to Argentina for first time in years (Reuters)
- Regulators Twice Failed to Open GM Probes (WSJ)
- Bad loan writedowns soar at China banks (FT)
- Investors Breathe Life Into European Banks' Bad Loans (WSJ)
- Euro zone inflation drops to lowest since 2009 (Reuters)
- Yellowstone National Park rattled by largest earthquake in 34 years (Reuters)
"Fade The Early Ramp" Watch - Day 7
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/31/2014 06:06 -0500- Abenomics
- Barclays
- Bond
- Borrowing Costs
- Chicago PMI
- China
- Consumer Prices
- Copper
- Core CPI
- CPI
- Credit Suisse
- Creditors
- Crude
- Dallas Fed
- default
- Deutsche Bank
- Equity Markets
- Eurozone
- Germany
- Greece
- headlines
- Iran
- Janet Yellen
- Jim Reid
- LatAm
- March FOMC
- Monte Paschi
- Newspaper
- Nikkei
- Non-manufacturing ISM
- Obama Administration
- POMO
- POMO
- Portugal
- Precious Metals
- RANSquawk
- recovery
- Reuters
- Trade Balance
- Turkey
- Ukraine
- Unemployment
- White House
After ramping in overnight trading, following the spike in Japanese stocks following another batch of disappointing economic data out of the land of the rising sun and setting Abenomics which sent the USDJPY, and its derivative Nikkei225 surging, US equity futures have pared some of the gains in what now appears a daily phenomenon. Keep in mind, the pattern over the past 6 consecutive days has been to ramp stocks into the US open, followed by a determined fade all the way into the close, led by "growthy" stocks and what appears to be an ongoing unwind of a hedge fund basket by one or more entities. Could the entire market be pushed lower because one fund is unwinding (or liquidiating)? Normally we would say no, but with liquidity as non-existant as it is right now, nothing would surprise us any more.
March 30th
China Confiscates Billions In "Ugliest Corruption Scandal" In History
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/30/2014 20:57 -0500
With Chinese authorities increasingly looking like they are sticking to their reform promises, fighting moral hazard and allowing defaults to occur (in a completely 'contained' way, of course); the continued crackdown on graft and government corruption has hit a new high (or low). As Reuters reports, Chinese authorities have seized assets worth at least 90 billion yuan ($14.5 billion) from family members and associates of retired domestic security tsar Zhou Yongkang, who is at the center of China's biggest corruption scandal in more than six decades. 71-year-old Zhou has been under house arrest since first being investigated late last year but the size and scale of the corruption is unprecedented including 300 apartments, 60 vehicles, bonds, stocks, and gold - "it's the ugliest in the history of the New China."
Guest Post: The Limited Economic Impact Of The US Shale Gas Boom
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/30/2014 20:17 -0500
Analysis suggests that commentators and policymakers need to better distinguish between the ways in which the US shale gas boom constitutes a ‘revolution’ and the ways in which it does not. The US unconventional energy boom has reversed the decline of domestic production, significantly lowered oil and gas imports, reduced gas costs for consumers, and created a political space for tougher regulations on coal-fired power plants. But it is not a panacea. Even if current estimates of production turn out to be accurate, the benefits to the US economy in the long run are relatively small, and the benefits to manufacturing competitiveness in most sectors are even smaller.
Double Data Whammy For Japan As PMI Tumbles & Industrial Production Misses By Most Since Abenomics
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/30/2014 19:48 -0500
"It's always darkest before the dawn," we are sure will be the next idiotic (and wholly unsupported) bullshit line from various Japanese leaders about yet another round of disastrous Japanese data. Aside from June 2013, this is the biggest monthly drop in Industrial Production since the Tsunami - and biggest miss since Abenomics began. Good news right? More stimulus right? Not with inflation surging thanks to the collapsed currency. But wait, there's more 'great' news, Markit PMI just had its biggest 2-month drop in 20 months and is at its lowest in 6 months. For now, JPY is confused (and so is the Nikkei) but US futures aren't, they are rallying; because, well - why not, the casino is still open for now.
German Executives Denounce EU/US Leaders Over Russia Confrontation
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/30/2014 18:57 -0500
With at least 300,000 German jobs dependent on business relations with Russia, it is hardly surprising that, as Reuters reports, several top German executives have criticized the strategy of the U.S. and Europe in dealing with Russia fearing the consequences for their businesses. On the heels of Siemens CEO's comments (as we noted here) that "you don’t want to sanction anyone you depend on,” a number of other senior German executives have commented that that great change could be achieved if the West cooperated with Russia rather than being confrontational. Deutsche Post's Appel summed it up, "Since we don't have major sources of raw materials in Europe, we will always be dependent on others... and it seems questionable to me whether dependence on the Middle East or Venezuela would be better than that on Russia."
HuMPTY CHRiSTiE HaD A GReaT FaLL...
Submitted by williambanzai7 on 03/30/2014 18:38 -0500FOOD AND BEVERAGE NOT RECOMMENDED
The Obamacare Comedy Of Errors... In Cartoons
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/30/2014 18:10 -0500
There are just hours left until the formal March 31 deadline (although at this point so many deadlines have been extended it is not quite clear just which deadline this is) to sign up for Obamacare. Or rather, to put Obamacare in your check out basket with the intention of paying... at some indefinite time in the future. So instead of rehashing and repeating all the things that have already been said countless times about Obamacare, below we show some of the best cartoons laying out the tragicomedy that is Obamacare by Politico's Matt Wuerker.
Unintended Consequences - Creating More Debt by Trying to Make Less
Submitted by Cognitive Dissonance on 03/30/2014 17:01 -0500It is supremely ironic that those who wish to withdraw or minimize their interactions with the Ponzi might actually feed it on the way out. This alone speaks volumes towards how dysfunctional and truly unsustainable it is.
What Happens When "The Workers" Just Don't Care Anymore?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/30/2014 16:58 -0500
One of the big problems in America today is that a lot of people simply do not seem to care about what they are doing anymore. The level of sloth, laziness and apathy that we are witnessing in this country is absolutely mind-numbing. Of course this is not true of everyone. There are still many Americans that are extremely hard working. But overall, it really appears that people are not taking as much pride in their work as they once did. Some of the examples below are quite funny; others are more than just a little bit disturbing. But they all have a common theme. Americans from all walks of life are simply giving up. Whether they are teachers, delivery people or fast food workers, the truth is that there are a whole lot of people out there that seem to have mentally checked out.
For Stocks, April Is The Least Cruel Month
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/30/2014 16:13 -0500
Both the entire month of March, and its last full week, particularly for biotech investors and especially hedge funds, is a time that many would rather forget and continue pretending that the saying "as January goes, so goes the year" is no longer applicable. Luckily, for all those bulls who have forgotten that in a normal market there is both return and risk, at least in pre-New Normal times, there may be some good news. As Bank of America's chief technician MacNeil Curry reminds us, April is the least cruel month for stocks, posting the highest monthly average return since 1950, returning just over 2.0%.
Have We Reached Peak Putin?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/30/2014 15:18 -0500
No tree grows to the sky. Once extremes are reached, trends reverse, often with symmetry: the decline often matches the ascent. Which leads to an interesting question: have we reached Peak Putin? The capture of a few pawns has cleared the chessboard, but the strategic choices already made have greatly reduced Putin's room to maneuver.
Far-Right Gains In French Election As Hollande's Socialists Admit "Unquestionably A Defeat"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/30/2014 14:47 -0500A week after initial votes showed the far-right anti-Euro National Front party gaining ground in French municipal elections, it appears the ongoing disappointment in the ruling Socialists is increasing (amid record joblessness).
- *FAR RIGHT MAKES FURTHER GAINS IN FRENCH MUNI ELECTIONS
- *MOSCOVICI SAYS TODAY'S ELECTIONS 'UNQUESTIONABLY A DEFEAT'
- *MOSCOVICI SAYS IT'S 'DIFFICULT TO REFORM FRANCE'
These are the first nationwide elections in France since Hollande took office and point to rather concerning lack of support for his party and his policies (and the core of the EU); but a record high 38.5% of votes abstained suggesting major apathy as the country's north-south divide grows.
Hedge Funds Slammed: "Smart Money" Has One Of Worst Weekly Losses Since 2001
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/30/2014 14:09 -0500
Last week in the markets was all about what was happening below the calm surface waters, which saw the DJIA post a tiny increase and the S&P dip just a fraction. If one was going off merely by the two main indices, one would certainly have missed the drubbing that tech and specifically biotech stocks suffered. However, nowhere was it worse than in the "hedge fund hotel" basket of names most near and dear to the hearts of hedge funds, and respectively those most hated, one which Goldman defines as the long Very Important Positions <GSTHHVIP> vs. short Very Important Shorts <GSTHVISP>. It was here that P&Ls saw one of the worst weekly losses for hedge fund positions since 2001.





