Archive - Mar 2014

Early weakness and volatility was entirely suppressed once European markets closed and stocks traded in a shockingly low range amid dreadfully low volume. All the major indices closed red with the Russell underperforming (and Nasdaq outperforming) as stocks tracked (more loosely than normal) with AUDJPY once again. Treasuries ended the day very modestly lower in yield (30Y unch, rest -1bps). The USD traded modestly higher all day led by weakness in GBP and AUD (as JPY ended unch). Gold closed unchanged as copper (China), oil, and silver slipped. Credit markets remain skeptical and VIX closed higher on the day, despite the late-day ramp efforts to get the S&P 500 green - which failed.

In what is one of the most disturbing private prison stories you’ll ever hear, a facility in Idaho run by Corrections Corporation of America (CCA) in under investigation by the FBI due to claims it was so violent inmates called it “Gladiator School.” So how does a prison transform into such a place? Apparently, CCA was so eager to cut costs that it chose to understaff the facility and hand over control to prison gangs.

Just when you thought the distractions in Russia, Malaysia, and Libya were enough to take the spotlight off domestic drama, Chris Christie's BridgeGate scandal bubbles back into the headlines. As WSJ reports, Manhattan federal prosecutors have subpoenaed records from the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey related to the business interests of its chairman, David Samson, people familiar with the matter said Monday. Samson, a close ally of Christie, is, according to sources, under investigation for potential conflicts between his private business interests and his actions as chairman of the sprawling bi-state authority, which oversees Hudson River crossings into New York City, airports, the PATH rail system and the World Trade Center complex.

China's biggest blue-chip stock index - the CSI-300 - dropped over 3% overnight and fell to its lowest level since Feb 2009. Corporate bond and trust defaults (crushing confidence in credit markets), shadow-banking collateral unwinds (crushing commodity prices), and exports collapsing (crushing dreams of a global economic recovery) are all weighing on Chinese stocks. This comes, ironically as the US equity "market" celebrates the 5 year anniversary of the Mar 2009 lows and soars to new highs in the face of turmoil. There is, of course, another outlet for China's massive money-printing - that dwarfs the Fed's - its real estate market.. and that is the bubble that the PBOC is trying to tamp down.

Officially, US debt stands at more than $17 trillion. In reality, it is many times more. So who in his right mind would think it is a good time to start a war with Russia over Ukraine? And worse, who would commit the United States to bail out a Ukraine that will need at least $35 billion to survive the year? Who? The president and Congress, backed by the neocons and the so-called humanitarian interventionists! Cooler heads in the United States are not currently prevailing. There is a danger of an unimaginable conflict between the US and Russia. We must demand a shift away from a war footing, away from incendiary rhetoric. We are broke and cannot afford to “buy” Ukraine. We certainly cannot afford another war, especially with Russia!

Two months ago we noted the clashes between the Libyan government and the rebels over selling oil. It appears the rising threats are reaching a crescendo as AABAA reports the Libyan Navy has impounded a North Korean oil tanker trying to export oil from a rebel-held port of Es-Sider, and is on its way to Western Libya. Interestingly this comes just a day after the US issued a statement strongly condemning "illicitly obtained oil from Libya." We suspect Kim will not be a happy tyrant this evening and also note that the rebels deny the vessel is under government control.

The Whole World Has Gone Into Debt

If you travel around America you will see towns and landscapes every bit as desolate as a former Soviet republic. In fact, our towns look infinitely worse than the street-views of Ukraine’s population centers. Ours were built of glue and vinyl, with most of the work completed thirty years ago so that it’s all delaminating under a yellow-gray patina of auto emissions. Inside these miserable structures, American citizens with no prospects and no hope huddle around electric space heaters. They have no idea how they’re going to pay the bill for that come April. They already spent the money on tattoos and heroin.

You really can't make this stuff up:

• EVANS: FED NEEDS TO BE CLEAR RATES WILL BE LOW FOR LONG TIME (ok)
• EVANS SAYS 'WE NEED TO LET THE MARKET WORK' (umm, well...)
• EVANS SAYS FED WANTS TO SEE LOWER LONG-TERM INTEREST RATES (but... you just said)
  
• EVANS:HIGHER LONG-TERM RATES FOR RIGHT REASON IN 'OUR' INTEREST (wait, what?)

Did Charlie blow a fuse? Because he just said that the Fed will hold rates low, wants long-term rates low, but also wants to let the markets work, and wants inflation to raise long-term rates... Forward-guidance just lost another few points of credibility.

Whether or not institutional investors, read large speculators, decided to invest alongside Putin in the one trade that is most critical to the future prosperity and positive cash flow balance of Russia, namely keeping the price of Crude high, and rising, is unknown, however, as the following chart the net position in crude oil futures as of the week of March 4, just hit an all time high of $44.0 billion up from $42.4 billion the week prior, surpassing all prior peaks, and certainly any set during the summer of 2008 when oil was threatening to make a run on $150, and was set to hit $200 if one believes Goldman (which nobody does).

The "smart money" indicator is at its most extreme degree of selling since November, 2010.

Personal sovereignty is a ‘State of Mind’ long before it is a state of being.

Mere days ahead of Crimea's referendum to join Russia (or not) and following reports of shots fired between Russian and Ukrainian forces, the Ukraine Defense Ministry reports (via Facebook):

• *UKRAINE LIEUTENANT COLONEL DEFECTS TO RUSSIAN FORCES: MINISTRY
• *UKRAINE OFFICER IN CHARGE OF CRIMEA UNIT DEFECTS: UKR MINISTRY
• *OFFICER CONVINCES 'SEVERAL' SOLDIERS TO DEFECT: DEF MINISTRY

Lt. Colonel Sadovnyk is the officer reported as 'kidnapped' yesterday in Bakhchisarai. It would appear Crimea is annexing itself as this comes just one week after the head of Ukraine's Navy defected.

European sovereign bond spreads have not batted an eyelid during the recent Russia-Ukraine crisis... and why should they, Draghi will do "whatever it takes." Even HY credit in Europe is holding up - despite an ugly squeeze wider on Friday (chatter that positioning in very long credit). But with Europe's VIX above 20, the broad European stock index is now below pre-Putin levels. What is perhaps most stunning is that while investors have piled out of German, Swiss, and French stocks in the last few days, they have backed-up-the-truck in "new normal" safe-haven Portugal. The reason proferred by some - Portugal is further from Ukraine (and less dependent on Russia's gas) - which of course is the critical swing factor for an economy that remains crushed aside from trade with Germany.

With surveillance and online privacy now front-and-center in many people's minds, the 2014 SXSW Interactive Festival is hosting a "Virtual Conversation with Edward Snowden" this morning focused on the impact of the NSA's spying efforts on the technology community, and the ways in which technology can help to protect us from mass surveillance. Hear directly from Snowden about his beliefs on what the tech community can and must do to secure the private data of the billions of people who rely on the tools and services that we build.