Archive - Apr 11, 2014

"Turmoil" indeed...

We asked this question a quarter ago following the quarterly results by Wells Fargo - America's biggest mortgage lender - but we never got an appropriate answer. So now that the data has been updated for the latest Wells mortgage origination and application numbers, we ask the question again: considering both mortgage originations and applications are crashing to levels not seen since the Lehman crisis, just what is wrong with this "housing recovery" picture?

... Because the sheer success of Obamacare was too great for her to handle.

Yup, Gartman again.

Rickards does not expressly say one should put 33% of one’s wealth in gold but suggests that an allocation of between 10% and 33% would be prudent. In this regard, he echos Dr Marc Faber who suggested a 25% allocation to precious metals last week.

Another day ending in "y" means another day in which Putin plays the G(roup of most insolvent countries)-7 like a fiddle.

University of Michgan Consumer Confidence soared to 8 month highs, beating expectations by the most since November led by a surge in "outlook" hope. Current conditions are back at December 2013 highs but it is the outlook that is providing the juice for this exuberant headline print. Bear in mind this is the preliminary print of this data and is due for revision in the next 2 weeks or so... which as 'consumers' see the red flashing tickers on their iPhones will be slightly less exuberant.

Talking heads were positively orgasmic at the fact that Greece managed to get a five-year bond deal off in the public markets... at a 4.75% coupon and was 8-times oversubscribed. That must be great news, right? So, kindly explain to us where all that exuberant "Greece is the best thing since sliced bread" demand is today as the bond price has collapsed 1.5 points and yields smashed higher by over 30bps...?

For the first time in over two months, all the major US equity indices are negative year-to-date (as Trannies finally succumb to the selling pressure). Russell and Nasdaq are down 4% YTD.

"We can't help thinking that as it becomes ever clearer that the Fed is pretty much fixed in its determination to stop QE late this year, the oxygen that has fuelled the 5 year bull market is slowly draining out of the market. Clearly the Fed is still buying a significant amount of bonds and thus providing a lot of liquidity but clearly only for a few more months."

- Deutsche Bank

Ahhh, the smell of "fake" headlines in the morning. It smells like victory, especially as there goes another conspiracy "theory"

Producer Price Inflation data soared higher than expectations across the board this morning with Final Demand up 1.4% YoY (against 1.1% expectation) to its highest since Aug 2013. The main driver was food and apparel prices (rather unexpectedly) but we also note that ex-Food-and-Energy was a 0.6% rise (vs 0.2% exp.) which is the biggest month over month jump since March 2011.

Overnight weakness in Asia spilled into Europe and the bloodbath is continuing - especially in the peripheral markets which have until now been invincible in the face of deteriorating fundamentals. Just like US hyper-growth hope, Portugal, Spain, and Italy stock markets have soared this year - among the world's best performers - but are getting monkey-hammered in the last 2 days (down over 5%). Despite more chatter of ECB QE, peripheral bond spreads are also jumping higher (+7bps) as German Bund yields are slumping back below 1.5% - the lowest in 10 months. US futures are ugly too.

So much for the infallible Mr. Dimon.

Moments ago, JPM reported Q1 earnings which missed across the board, driven by the now traditional double whammy of collapsing mortgage revenues - the lifeblood of any old normal bank - and fixed income trading revenues  - the lifeblood of new normal banks. Specifically, JPM reported revenues of $23.9 billion, well below the expected $24.5 billion, matched by a reported earnings miss of $1.28, down from $1.59 a quarter ago (and down $0.02 from Q4, 2014), also missing consensus estimates of $1.38. The breakdown was as follows.