Archive - Apr 15, 2014

The future for US Small Caps is not a bright one, according to GMO. While High Quality US equities are expected to return a meager 2.1% annually over the next 7 years, Small Caps have become so egregiously over-valued that GMO's forward-looking estimate of Small Cap performance is a dismal 4.9% annual loss over the next 7 years (compared with a 6.5% annual return average for broad US equities). It seems the BTFD easy money has been made in this bubble...

The fears over ongoing commodity-financing restrictions and slowing money supply growth are contagiously spilling over into other collateral. Copper prices are in free fall this morning, crashing through critical levels (especially Dennis Gartman's "long punt") and back below the Maginot Line of $3.00. These are near 3-week low levels and the biggest drop since the cash-for-commodity financing deals came under real pressure.

Following the hotter than expected PPI data, it was the turn of CPI to come in stronger than consensus had hoped for, and sure enough, moments ago the BLS reported that March consumer inflation printed higher than the expected 0.1%, coming at 0.2% for both headline and the core (excluding food and energy) components, driven mostly higher by a surge in Utility costs which soared by 7.5% M/M, and a whopping 16.4% Y/Y. Curiously, the energy services spike of 2.6% of which utilities is a part, was offset by a drop in energy commodities, mostly fuel oil, whose cost dropped 2.9% in March and by gasoline down 1.7%, and down 4.7% Y/Y.  The BLS also noted the rapid increase in the shelter price index: "Almost two-thirds of this increase was accounted for by the shelter index, which rose 0.3 percent. The indexes for rent and owners’ equivalent rent both rose 0.3 percent, while the index for lodging away from home rose 1.5 percent." Is the housing bubble - both purchase and rent - and which has already burst across much of the nation, finally being noticed by the Fed?

For the 8th month of the last 9, the Empire Manufacturing missed expectations. Tumbling to its lowest since December (despite the apparent let-up in weather freakishness), this is the biggest miss since Jan 2013. The average workweek slowed significantly, but the overall index was modestly saved by a push higher in 'hope' as the six-months-forward index jumped back to Feb highs. Perhaps most concerning, given the supposed pent-up demand that we have been told to expect when the weather picked up, was the tumble in new orders to their lowest since November.

Gold prices are down almost 2% this morning (over $25) as last night's slowdown in Chinese money-supply growth and fears that China's insatiable gold demand has become less insatiable send the barbarous relic back towards $1300. Slowing GDP expectations, increasing restrictions on shadow-banking commodity-backed financing, and a need for liquidity are all factors weighing on the precious metal this morning.

Following last night's protest in front of the Kiev parliament by Maidan faithful and others who had gotten sick and tired by their government doing absolutely nothing to preserve the cohesion of the Ukraine - both west and east - this morning acting president Turchynov, realizing he is between a rock and a hard place and suddenly his position is quite precarious, finally announced that he had issued an order to the country's military to begin operations to retake government buildings seized by pro-Russia separatists in eastern areas.  Oleksandr Turchynov, also the parliament speaker, said the deployment had begun in the Donetsk region, where many of the approximately 10 towns affected by the protests are located.

• Ukraine forces move against separatists (FT)
• China GDP Gauge Seen Showing Deeper Slowdown (BBG)
• China Is Losing Its Taste for Gold (WSJ)
• Regulators Weigh Curbs on Trading Fees (WSJ)
• Obama, Putin Talk as Unrest Roils Eastern Ukraine (WSJ)
• Japan PM talks with BOJ chief, does not push for easing (Reuters)
• BRICS countries to set up their own IMF (RBTH)
• IMF Members Weigh Options to Sidestep U.S. Congress on Overhaul (WSJ)
• Zebra to Buy Motorola Solutions Unit for $3.45 Billion (BBG)
• Chinese Thunder God Herb Works as Well as Pain Therapy (BBG)

One can see that while the traditional 6:00 AM USDJPY buy program is just duying to resume aggressive upward momentum ignition, futures are still leery and confused by the recent post-open high beta selloffs. Then again, things like yesterday's ridiculous no news 3:30pm ramp happen and confused them even more just as momentum is about to take a downward direction. Stocks in Asia (ex-China) advanced amid a reversal in sentiment after Citigroup (+4.15%) inspired positive close on Wall Street, however Shanghai Comp (-1.4%) underperformed as concerns over GDP data on Wednesday following weak money supply data weighed on sentiment. Stocks remained on the back foot (Eurostoxx50 -0.42%), with Bunds supported by the release of lower than expected German ZEW survey and also ongoing concerns surrounding the stand-off between Ukraine/Russia. Short-Sterling bear steepened after UK CPI fell to its lowest level since October 2009, but house prices across Britain posted its biggest rise since June 2010, reviving concerns over an overheating market.