Archive - Apr 2014

The "v"-shaped recovery in US equity indices is largely being ignored by bonds, JPY, and credit for now as VIX is in charge of the ramping efforts for now... until the last few minutes when it all went a bit pear-shaped...

Ukraine's foreign ministry has given Russia a 48-hour ultimatum to explain its military exercises near the nation's border; or, as foreign minister Andriy Deshschytisa warns "we will now fight with Russia troops."

... The HFTs are providing so much liquidity they are literally making it rain.

Back in August of last year, we first reported data that not even believed at first, but has since been proven correct using existing home sales data, namely that a whopping 60% of all home purchases are "cash only." However, not even that data could prepare us for what we learned today courtesy of CoreLogic, which narrowed down the range from the broader "housing" segment just to the most appetizing (especially for investors and flippers) condo market. What it found was stunning: not less than 80% of all condos in key markets such as Florida, Nevada And New York are all cash.

The PBOC's willingness to a) enter the global currency war (beggar thy neighbor), and b) 'allow' the Yuan to weaken and thus crush carry traders and leveraged 'hedgers' is about to get serious. The total size of the carry trades and hedges is hard to estimate but Deutsche believes it is around $500bn and as Morgan Stanley notes the ongoing weakness means things can get ugly fast as USDCNY crosses the crucial 6.25 level where losses from hedge products begin to surge. This is a critical level as it pre-dates Fed QE3 and BoJ QQE levels and these are pure levered derivative MtM losses - not a "well they will just rotate to US equities" loss - which means major tightening on credit conditions...

Silver coins with the face of Russian President Vladimir Putin are being minted in Russia. The coins weigh one kilogram (1kg - 2.2lb) and are being launched by the Art Grani foundry to mark Crimea’s reincorporation into Russia.

It may comes as a surprise to many, if certainly not the country known as Gazpromia, that according to a government statement released on Wednesday, China will raise its natural gas supply to a whopping 420 ­billion cubic meters per year by 2020 on soaring demand due to urbanization, a government statement said on Wednesday. This compares roughly 168 bcm in gas used in 2013, which means somehow China hopes to boost gas production by over 150% in just 6 years.

The Feds are gathering and have brought in hired guns. We are more likely than not headed into a military confrontation – the first since Waco. Keep in mind that Obama’s head of the Justice Department, Eric Holder now Attorney General, called the shots on Waco back then. He got away with it before – why not again?

Ukraine's Deputy Foreign Minister Danylo Lubkivsky exhorted to US State department officials, "let's not look for further time frames," demanding "all necessary pressure" be applied now. The red line has already been crossed and, as Bloomberg reports,  Lubkivsky says he hopes U.S., EU don’t prioritize political concerns over moral ones and that the West will help with economic, diplomatic and military assistance.

Well that escalated quickly...

It seems potential WWIII trumps a buyback-driven exuberance in stocks...

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu says that Russia will begin "defense drills" today, forced to react to the situation in southeast Ukraine and, more improtantly, the NATO build up, the first time Russia has explicitly reacted to the military build up of the military alliance. There are already tanks amassing within meters of the border (as the following clip indicates), and that the military drill will involve airforce planes working near the border. It is now entirelyclear that the "truce" deal is dead as both sides not only escalate but blame each other for the un-de-escalation. Russia's move - after US and NATO's expansions this week - leaves the situation as bad as it has been since tensions began.

"The amount of experience he has is ridiculous," says former JPM prop trader Galuti, adding "- in a positive way," as he explains why former Clinton Commerce secretary (and Obama chief of staff) Bill Daley has joined the small Swiss-based hedge fund. The revolving door of favors continues as Daley, who The FT reports will be based in Chicago and oversee US expansion (as well as provide macroeconomic and political advice), joins an ever-growing number of former Obama administration officials to have taken jobs in the financial sector.

It is oddly appropriate that moments after we reported that capex at Caterpillar (and virtually every other company we have looked at in detail) tumbled by 50% year over year, that the Census Bureau released the latest Durable Goods report. In it we find that unlike previous months, when headline durable goods tumbled because of "harsh weather" in March it apparently not only did it not snow (although the New Homes Sales report may have something to say about that) but the weather so so balmy, that the headline print came in stronger than the expected 2.0%, printing at 2.6%, up from a downward revised 2.1%. The bulk of the margin however was due to Boeing, which reported some 163 new aircraft orders, compared to 74 in February.

Initial jobless claims surged from 304k to 329k this week, the biggest weekly rise since mid-December. From exuberance at new cycle lows, we swing to the average of the last 8 months. This is the biggest miss to expectations in over 2 months. Continuing Claims dropped further to new cycle lows at 2.68 million (beating expectations) - its lowest since Dec 2007. So this is as good as it gets for continuing claims - America is back at its best!