Archive - Apr 2014

“There was a moment when it made sense,” said Blackstone Group, largest home buyer in the US. But not anymore.

Something's undoubtedly brewing...

Well that didn't take long... Friday morning's post-payrolls record all-time high in the S&P 500 (because, as Steve Liesman said, "he can't find any reason to be bearish about jobs data") has rapidly collapsed to being negative year-to-date (and worst start to a year since 2009's crash). Only the Transports remain green in 2014, with the Dow, Nasdaq (worst start to a year since 2008), and Russell all coincidentally gathered around a 2% negative return YTD.

Employment is a function of demand by customers on businesses. As opposed to many economists and politicians, businesses do not hire employees to be "good samaritans." While such a utopian concept is fine in theory, the reality is that businesses operate from a "profit motive." The problem is quite clear. With the consumer heavily leveraged, the inability to "spend and borrow" is reducing aggregate demand.  As stated, the current level of aggregate demand simply isn't strong enough to offset the rising costs of taxes, benefits and healthcare (a significant consideration due to the onset of the Affordable Care Act) associated with hiring full-time employees. Therefore, businesses initially opt for cost efficient productivity increases, and only hire as necessary to meet marginal increases in customer demand which has come from population growth.

The relative calm of the last two weeks as US talking-heads proclaim Ukraine 'fixed', Russia 'under control', and Europe 'recovering' is being obliterated this morning. The storming of various non-Crimean Ukrainian city government buildings suggest round two of the push is beginning and Russia is wasting no time explaining how this will go down. Russian Senator Viktor Ozerov stated that "Russia has no right to [send peacekeepers] unilaterally" to Eastern and Southern Ukraine (unless the UN agrees)... but... "Russia is interested in stability in Ukraine. At the same time, the will of the people must be documented. A referendum is the most democratic way of expressing one's will." In other words, "we can't help you unless you hold a referendum to annex." Stage 2 is beginning... and it seems Ukraine is getting it as they are preparing to issue a state of emergency.

In the days after the Crimean referendum, we presented our take on "who is next" in the great annexation scramble and said that the most likely region to enter the USSR 2.0 next is Moldova's Transnistira region, where in a 2006 referendum some 97% of the population had voted to become part of Russia.  Moments ago this appears to have been confirmed after the president of the territory said the following, via Bloomberg:

MOLDOVA'S TRANSNISTRIA REGION SEEKS TO JOIN RUSSIA: PRESIDENT

One thing is certain: the "west" will not be happy as the Russian territorial expansion continues.

New mortgage originations fell over 23% month-over-month and a stunning 47% year-to-date according to Black Knight (formerly LPS). As they show in their detailed presentation, with a 65% year-over-year drop, new mortgage originations are at their lowest since their records began and what is perhaps more concerning is prepayment speeds signal further declines are ahead and the ratio of serious deterioration to foreclosure (along with huge numbers of loan mods due to reset) suggest the housing market is anything but recovering fundamentally with the average loan in foreclosure now 2.6 years past due.

Over the weekend the world was gripped by the drama surrounding the mysterious murder-homicide of the former CEO of Dutch bank ABN Amro and members of his family, and whether there is more foul play than meets the eye. However, that is nothing compared to what just happened in the tiny, and all too quiet Principality of Lichtenstein, where moments ago the CEO of local financial institution Bank Frick & Co. AG, Juergen Frick, was shot dead in the underground garage of the bank located in the city of Balzers.

UPDATE: V-shaped recovery in stocks as 103 USDJPY marks line in the sand...

BTFD failed and momentum has broken. Growth stocks and Biotech dreams are lying shattered in a pool of margin calls once again this morning. Nasdaq being dragged by another more-than-1% drop in Biotechs (now negative year-to-date) and nearing the 20% high-to-low drop of a bear market. Bonds are bid as JPY carry unwinds drag broad US equity markets lower... The USD is weaker (led by EUR strength) and precious metals are down modestly (gold at $1300)

Brad Katsuyama played by Brad Pitt? We wouldn't have too much of a problem with that.

In the aftermath of Michael Lewis' book "Flash Boys" there has been a renewed surge in interest in High Frequency Trading. Alas, much of it is conflicted, biased, overly technical or simply wrong. And since we can't assume that all those interested have been followed our 5 year of coverage of a topic that finally has earned its day in the public spotlight, below is a simple summary for everyone.

"Whatever it takes," appears to have become the new mantra across global financial systems and with Chinese shadow banks under increasing pressure (as cash-for-commodity deal financing dries up and "hedge" losses mount on 'surprise' Yuan weakness), property developers are increasingly desperate for liquidity. The solution, as The FT reports, Chinese property companies are buying stakes in banks and raising fears that the country’s already stretched developers are trying to cosy up to their lenders. 10 Chinese developers, who have been active in recent bank IPOs, have invested an 'unprecedented' $3bn in their potential lifeline lenders.

The whole situation is very reminiscent of the computer trading, which led to the 1987 Crash.

The Grand Narrative of the past few centuries goes something like this: from religious authority to secular authority, from agriculture to industrial, from rural to urban, from local to global, from periphery to center, from decentralized to centralized, from low-density energy to high-density energy (from wood to coal to oil/natural gas), from industrial to communication technology, from gold to fiat currencies, from linear to non-linear (complex/fractal), from local scarcity and high cost to global abundance, from islands of prosperity to continents of prosperity, from cash to credit, from collateral to leverage,from productive to consumerist and from sustainable to unsustainable. Many of these linear trends are running out of oxygen or reversing. This is not doom-and-gloom for society--it is only doom-and-gloom for the current unsustainable arrangement (Plan A).