Archive - Apr 2014

Here are the key numbers: March payrolls +192K, below the 200K expected (LaVorgna 275K). This was a drop from the upward revised February print of 197K. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7%, and above the 6.6% expected. The participation rate rose modestly from 63.0% to 63.2% as the labor force rose by 500K to 156,226 while the people not in the labor force declined by over 300K to 91,030. Manufacturing jobs had the largest drop since July. The number of unemployed rose 27K to 10,486K.  Conclusion: it snowed in March too, but judging by the perfectly expected stock reaction, it snowed in a good way.

• HSBC 181K
• JP Morgan 200K
• Goldman Sachs 200K
• Barclays 225K
• Bank of America 230K
• Citigroup 240K
• UBS 250K
• Deutsche Bank 275K

With the market focus at the NFP number release will be on one simple statistic: did the March Payrolls number beat or miss the nice round number expected of 200K (after all algos can't process more than that in 1 nanosecond), the real story in the past several years has been not about the headline establishment survey trend but everything else, especially the labor force participation (plunging), average weekly hours (plunging) average weekly compensation (plunging), and the demographic change in the labor force (will workers aged 55 and over hit a new record high? Why yes). All these are metrics and dynamics we, unlike the vacuum tubes, follow closely and will summarize after today's number. Yet one aspect of the jobs data we haven't shown before, and which BofA focuses on this morning, is the unemployment rate by industry. For all those curious what the data looks like, here is the summary.

• Nato chief defends eastern advance (FT)
• Russia looks east as it seeks to rebalance trade interests (FT)
• Plane from Guinea briefly quarantined in Paris after Ebola scare (AFP)
• US attacks Japan’s stance on Trans-Pacific Partnership (FT)
• Thank you IMF: Ukraine PM says will stick to austerity despite Moscow pressure (Reuters)
• U.S. Army seeks motive for Fort Hood shooting rampage (Reuters)
• China Slowdown Adds to Emerging-Market Growth Hurdles, IMF Says (BBG)
• Top investors press Allianz to step up oversight of Pimco (Reuters)
• U.S. to Evaluate Role in Mideast Peace Process, John Kerry Says (WSJ)
• Scientists dismiss claims that Yellowstone volcano about to erupt (Reuters)
• Ukraine detains 12 riot police on suspicion of 'mass murder' (Reuters) - on CIA orders?

Today’s nonfarm payrolls release is expected to show a "spring" renaissance of labor market activity that was weighed on by "adverse weather" during the winter months (Exp. 200K, range low 150K - high 275K, Prev. 175K). Markets have been fairly lackluster overnight ahead of non-farm payrolls with volumes generally on the low side. The USD and USTs are fairly steady and there are some subdued moves the Nikkei (-0.1%) and HSCEI (+0.1%). S&P500 futures are up modestly, just over 0.1%, courtesy of the traditional overnight, low volume levitation. In China, the banking regulator is reported to have issued a guideline in March to commercial banks, requiring them to better manage outstanding non-performing loans this year. Peripheral EU bonds continued to benefit from dovish ECB threats at the expense of core EU paper, with Bunds under pressure since the open, while stocks in Europe advanced on prospect of more easing (Eurostoxx 50 +0.14%). And in a confirmation how broken centrally-planned markets are, Italian 2 Year bonds high a record low yield, while Spanish 5 Year bonds yield dropped below US for the first time since 2007... or the last time the credit risk was priced to perfection.

It appears the U.S. government is doing its best to ensure that nobody anywhere in any corner of planet earth will ever trust American technology again (or U.S. aid for that matter). This process of distrust first really got going with the Edward Snowden revelations, which demonstrated that essentially all major U.S. tech firms are mere wards of the state with little to no privacy protections, and absolutely zero backbone. This story of the U.S. government covertly creating a “Cuban Twitter” called ZunZuneo in order to overthrow the regime there has enormous long-term ramifications on many, many levels, which we will address below...

High Frequency Trading (HFT) covers such a broad swathe of 'trading' and financial markets that Mark Cuban (yes, that Mark Cuban), who has been among the leading anti-HFT graft voices in the public realm, decided to put finger-to-keyboard to create an "idiots guide to HFT" as a starting point for broad discussion. With screens full of desperate "stocks aren't rigged" HFT defenders seemingly most confused about what HFT is and does, perhaps instead of 'idiots' a better term would be "practitioners."

The most common pushback from any China bull, industrial commodity bull, US equity market bull, or in fact any risk market in general "bull" is "won't the authorities just pull the trigger? Won't they just stimulate?" As UBS Commodities group notes, the debate is most advanced for China and for industrial commodities, where the weakness in the economy, and the sharp commodity price falls of recent weeks, has consensus looking for a stimulus driven bounce. UBS does not think so - the authorities in China and the US have become increasingly focused on structural issues - which, simply put, means they are less willing to act than before. It appears last night's mini (railway-focused) stimulus supports the expectations of no "bazooka".

Goldman Sachs forecasts a 200k increase in non-farm payrolls for March - in line with consensus - and believe last month's 175k print supports the ongoing positive trend (in light of the weather effect). Key employment indicators looked mixed-to-better in March, and despite the continued cold temperatures, less extreme weather conditions overall should give an additional boost to job gains this month. Citi suggests the weather could have knocked 172k off payrolls overall from Dec to Jan and are more hopeful, expecting a 240k print. Their biggest fear, a greater than 275k print (which is the high bar that Joe Lavorgna has set) could see asset markets reacting badly (on the basis of quicker Fed tightening).

Japanese stocks have been bouncing back higher in the last few days as considerably worse data than expected combined with the looming consumption tax hike (which the government has to do to show the market that is, at a minimum, somewhat fiscally responsible) are driving both stocks and JPY to discount a near future dominated by an even bigger stimulus by the BoJ. However, casting a big shadow over all this is what happened the last time Japan raised its consumption tax...

Just buy the book Damnit, it’s all in there.

Exclusive image capture...

Yes, even Wall Street is a "victim" of open source.

This infographic (via Visual Capitalist), part two in our 2014 Gold Series (part 1 here), covers the full supply picture behind the yellow metal. Within the planet’s crust, there is only 1 gram of gold for every 250 tonnes (550,000 lbs) of earth. Gold’s rarity means that finding economic deposits is extremely difficult. To understand how gold mining and supply work, we must first unearth how gold deposits form...