Archive - May 15, 2014

After the biggest miss in over a year, Empire manufacturing rebounded phoenix-like to its biggest beat in 5 years and highest level in 4 years (at 19.0). The massive surge in the headline was matched by a huge jump in the number of employees - great news, except that the average work week was stable and proces received tumbled. What is more worrisome - and suggests this spike is entirely unsustainable is the outlook for capex and tech spending dropped, average workweek expectations shrank, and the number of employees is expected to fall.

Thank god for Germany, whose Q1 GDP printed at 0.8%, above the expected 0.7%, and higher than Q4's 0.4%, or else the Eurozone's very disappointing Q1 GDP, which printed at 0.2% or half the expected 0.4%, could have been flat or negative.

• More than 20 dead, doctor says, as anti-China riots spread in Vietnam (Reuters)
• Russia's Gazprom plans Singapore stock exchange listing (Reuters)
• Inside Europe’s Plan Z (FT)
• Ukraine slides deeper toward war as Russia warns to vote (BBG)
• Fast-Food Protests Spread Overseas (NYT)
• BOJ Beat, Officials Could Upgrade Outlook for Capex (WSJ)
• Euro-Zone Economy Shows Weaker-Than -Expected Expansion (WSJ)
• Yahoo to YouTube Ads Spreading Viruses Rile Lawmakers (BBG)
• New York Times Ousts Jill Abramson as Executive Editor, Names Dean Baquet (BBG)
• NYT Publisher Said to Always Have Clashed With Abramson (BBG)
• Google gets take-down requests after European court ruling - source (Reuters)

In yet another quarter confirming that Walmart is merely a company that can beat analyst expectations when it cashes Uncle Sam's welfare checks and foodstamps, when the impact of Obamacare is ignored, and when the second it snows all bets are off, WalMart reported Q1 EPS of $1.10, below the $1.15 expected, even if the company was able to explicitly quantify what the impact of snow in the winter was: "Severe weather in the U.S. businesses negatively impacted EPS by approximately $0.03." Apparently the weather's impact on the top line was over $1 billion because revenues came in at $114.96 billion, below the $116.3 billion expected.

In this brave new centrally-planned world, where bad is good, very bad is very good, and everything is weather adjusted, Japan's blistering GDP report last night, printing at 5.9% on expectations of 4.3% was "bad" because it means less possibility for a boost in QE pushing futures lower, while the liquidity addicts were giddy with the GDP miss in Europe where everyone except Germany missed (as for the German beat, Goldman's crack theam of economic climatologists, said it was due to the weather), and the Eurozone as a whole came at 0.2%, half the forecast 0.4%, which in turn allowed futures to regain some of the lost ground.

That greatest contrarian indicator in the history of finance, Tom Stolper (arguably even better than Dennis Gartman), may no longer be at Goldman but his muppet-crushing spirit lives on. With Bund (and Treasury) yields tumbling to lows not seen since mid 2013, adding insult to injury, and accelerating the short squeeze, here is Goldman's Francesco Garzarelli with "Trade Update: Close Trade recommendation selling short Euro Bund June 14 futures (RXM4), for a potential loss of 2%."

One allegation about price manipulation was made by the German regulator BaFin. That proves it, right? Not so fast.