Archive - May 28, 2014

While careful to explain that valuations overall are below dot-com bubble levels, KPCB's Mary Meeker warns that there are "certainly some valuation excesses" in the tech arena currently as she unveils her latest 164-page epic chartapalooza on Internet Trends... With internet adoption rates slowing, the question is - which are the names that are in a bubble?

One week ago we reported that while Russia was dumping a record amount of Treasurys it was buying gold, or some 900,000 ounces to be precise. Today we learn that as Russia continues to purchase gold, and is likely taking advantage of the recent rout in gold prices, it certainly won't be storing its physical metal with any of the western Central Banks. According to Reuters, shortly after Russia and China announced their historic gas deal, Vladimit Putin said at the recent International Economic Forum, that Russia need to ensure its gold and currency reserves are secure. And not just Russia: China too. Because apparently when it comes to speaking for "hard" monetary policy, Putin is now authorized to speak for both nations.

Freedom of the Press Geared Towards Protecting CRITICS of Government Corruption ... NOT Government Apologists

There can be no doubt that computer science knowledge is currently in great demand; however, we do believe that there are some signs that the boom is - so to speak - 'getting out of hand' and is beginning to reflect the effects of the technology echo bubble on Wall Street. The give-away is the size of the demand for computer science studies relative to other fields of study. The last time enrollment in computer science peaked was in the year 2000 – concurrently with the technology mania. This is obviously no coincidence. What is slightly disconcerting is that the current peak in enrollments towers vastly above that previous bubble peak.

First it was JPM, then it was, surprisingly, none other than NY Fed chief Bill Dudley - the head of the trading desk that proudly boasts trader extraordinaire Kevin Henry, then Citi, and now joining the chorus of banks and Fed presidents blaming all that is wrong in the banking system on near record low volatility resulting in a collapse in trading is none other than Goldman Sachs, whose president Gary Cohn spoke at a Sanford Bernstein conference earlier today, said that fixed income volumes - the bread and butter of Goldman's juggernaut FICC division - are under significant pressure, and blamed low interest rates and, drumroll, the Fed's QE on the drop in volatility, summarizing the current trading environment as "Abnormal." It appears increasingly more are voicing their displeasure with the New Centrally-Planned Abnormal... but only after their balance sheets are full to the brim with some $2.8 trillion in fungible reserves.

"For us (Russia and China) it is important to deposit those (gold and currency reserves) in a rational and secure way," Putin said. "And we together need to think of how to do that keeping in mind the uneasy situation in the global economy."

The plunge in yields continues and even unflappable stocks are starting to crack a little... 7Y Treasuriy yields just cracked below 2% for the first time since Nov 2013. What is perhaps most worrying for the exuberant equity market is the dramatic flattening in 2s30s today (2Y +2.5bps, 30Y -9bps on the week).  Wondering why bonds keep rallying... see below...

The West Point Military Academy Commencement address short hand: "Enjoy it now... and don't retire or get injured..." As NYTimes notes, President Obama plans to use a speech at the West Point military academy on Wednesday to lay out a foreign policy vision for his final two-and-a-half years in office, defending his approach against a wave of criticism that he has been too passive on the world stage.

Having suffered a dismal confidence-sapping defeat in last weekend's elections, Francois Hollande's French government is at the center of another embarrassing faux pas this morning. Somewhat famously, Hollande has raised income tax, VAT and corporation tax since he was elected two years ago... and government forecast EUR30bn of extra tax income. As The BBC reports, the actual amount gained... EUR16bn (leaving a EUR14bn black hole) and forcing The Court of Auditors to proclaim that "forecasts of tax revenue in 2013 were so wildly inaccurate that they cast doubt on its forecasts for this year." Mon Dieu... they lied?

Our response to a question asked by CNBC-- “Why if everybody is talking about inflation is the bond market not moving?

If there was some confusion yesterday why in the first quarter, seemingly having no better capital allocation option S&P500 corporate CEOs spent a record $160 billion on stock buybacks, then the following report should explain it: According to a new study by the AP, the median pay package for a CEO rose above eight figures for the first time last year. The head of a typical large public company earned a record $10.5 million, an increase of 8.8 percent from $9.6 million in 2012, according to an Associated Press/Equilar pay study.

While France's Hollande demands action - amid his country's "political earthquake" this weekend - Goldman warns investors should not expect any signal that the Governing Council is pondering in earnest a large-scale asset purchase program. Goldman expects the ECB to lower policy rates by 15bp at the June meeting and the announcement of targeted credit easing measures, probably in the form of a vLTRO as Draghi warns "the potential for a negative spiral to take hold between between low inflation, falling inflation expectations and credit, in particular in stressed countries."

10Y Treasury yields are tumbling once again this morning to 2.48% - near the lowest level since July 2013. Stocks are not...

According to JPM, a pair of wrong-way bets made by clients at the start of the year is partly to blame for Wall Street’s trading slowdown. Namely: the two mega-pain trades so far in 2014: being long USDJPY and short Treasurys which everyone had put on with mega-conviction at the beginning of the year, have so far in 2014 generated mega-losses for all those involved. Bloomberg quotes Pinto who said succinctly summarized that "Neither of those trades paid." He added: "Essentially you start the year with the wrong momentum, where you lose money at the very beginning, and you ended up with probably a lower risk appetite than you would have otherwise." And, as a result of actually, gasp, losing money, "Clients appear to be hesitating in placing the larger hedges that typically happen earlier in the year."

Some were confused by the latest bout of radiosilence emanating from the Kremlin in the aftermath of both the "Chocolate King" winning the Ukraine presidential election, and the most recent escalation of fighting in self-proclaimed as independent Republic of Donetsk, in which more than 50 "separatists" were killed. This ended moments ago when the Russian foreign ministry issued a press release that it has received appeals for humanitarian aid from the "conflict zone" in east Ukraine, and that more importantly, it is is ready to the "provide the population with the required assistance." As Bloomberg adds, Russia has asked for Ukraine’s help in allowing delivery of supplies to affected areas, and that it is ready to seek approval on routes, terms of transporation of supplies, ministry says. "Given the urgent nature of the situation, Russia is counting on the fastest possible answer from Ukraine on this request,” the ministry says.