Archive - May 2014

QE Bonus Play...

The near-term outlook for the US dollar appears to be improving.  Here is why.  

So long as inflation stays under four percent, it's a bullish factor. In such environments, the S&P 500 (since 1948, according to S&P's Capital IQ) increases on average 70 basis points per month.

Just a matter of time...

We are witnessing implied volatility on all asset classes simply collapse to the lowest levels witnessed in 20 years, or at least the lowest levels achieved prior to the GFC in early 2007.

After another, even deadlier, terrorist attack in Urumqi, Beijing must reevaluate its anti-terrorism strategy.

How do you get rid of hundreds of tons of highly radioactive water?  You dump it into the Pacific Ocean of course!  In Japan, the  Tokyo Electric Power Co. has made the “painful decision” to begin purposely dumping massive amounts of radioactive water currently being stored at the destroyed Fukushima nuclear facility directly into the Pacific.  This is being done even though water radiation levels near Fukushima spiked to a brand new all-time record high just a few days ago.

Having explained how well socialism worked in France and in Venezuela, why socialism alway fails; and exposing the "costs" of socialism around the world, we leave it to the much more erudite UKIP member Daniel Hannan to explain why socialism does not work. Hannan, simply put, explains why socialism (using force to make individuals comply with planners plans) doesn't produce the results the planners planned. As Austrian Addict notes, socialists don't like the spontaneous order that results when individuals are free to make decisions on what they produce, consume, and exchange. The only reason central planners think that socialism hasn't worked is because it hasn’t been tried by the right people, namely them.

Banking didn’t start out as a reckless, parasitical plaything of a moneyed and politically-connected aristocracy.

Ever seen Jamie Dimon, wearing his presidential cufflinks, stretch, bend and break the truth in front of Congress? The guy, and by implication JPMorgan, is unflappable: there is nothing in this world that could dent his cool. And yet, we may have just uncovered the weakest link in JPMorgan's armor. The one thing in the world that would make JPM "blink" is...

With relative front-runner Yulia Tymoshenko suggesting Ukraine hold a referendum on joing NATO in June - exactly the event that Putin has expressed grave concern about - this weekend's elections in the troubled nation are considerably more crucial to global geopolitical anxiety than the record low levels of implied volatility across FX, bond, and stock markets would suggest. AS Deutsche explains, Ukraine's new president will face challenges in almost all key spheres – in particular, de-escalating tensions within Ukraine, especially in the eastern provinces; conducting deep economic reforms in order to move Ukraine on the path of recovery along with dealing with the international lenders; finally, improving relations with Russia and the European Union. Below we outline the policy agendas of the candidates and assess the probable scenarios of further political development.

Monetary central planning at the zero bound embodies a destructive internal contradiction. It inherently generates rampant speculation in real estate and financial assets because ZIRP massively subsidizes the cost of carry. At the same time, its practitioners are institutionally disposed to bubble denial because they falsely believe that their policies are what is keeping the real economy advancing - even if currently it is at a sub-normal pace by historical standards. Without fail, therefore, monetary central planners keep their feet on the accelerator to the very end, boasting that the “in-coming data” shows the macro-economy approaching the nirvana of full-employment. What they are actually doing, however, is driving the financial system to unsustainable extremes of valuation and speculation - and eventually to a crash landing. We have had two of these processions of the lemmings - that is, Fed driven cycles of bubble inflation and bust - already in this century. Now we are at the asymptote of the third.

While US central bankers shudder at the idea of admitting their could be a bubble in real estate or stocks (unless its obvious in hindsight); and England's Bank of England explains 'if there is a bubble, it's not their fault, but there isn't so there'; it appears the Chinese are more comfortable with the truth. As Bloomberg BusinessWeek reports, China's central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said, China may have a housing bubble only in “some cities,” - an issue that’s difficult to resolve with a single nationwide policy. As concerns mount of dramatic over-supply on the back of extrapolated urbanization dreams, Zhou notes, “The economy has slowed down a bit, but not very much," adding that "we should keep vigilance on whether it continues to slow down." Which is odd because US talking heads have made up their minds that China is fixed...