Archive - May 2014

“The stock market is filled with people who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.” – Philip Fisher.

A 51-point personal perspective on some of the challenges facing today’s investor...

Last week, the number of first-time jobless claims dropped below 300,000 which has not happened since before the onset of the financial crisis. Not surprisingly, the media and economic analysis exploded with commentary that this is a sure sign that the economic recovery is afoot. Such a recovery will lead to stronger employment, higher wages, rising interest rates and a continuation of the bullish stock market cycle. However, is that really the case?

It began with JPY technicals and peripheral European weakness then US Retail earnings started it, Plosser extended it (rate hike sooner), then Dudley slammed it (terminal rate lower than normal)... Turbo Tuesday became Terrible Tuesday - only saved by the apparent BTFWWIII effort after Russia test-fired ICBMs. This was still the worst Tuesday for the Dow in 7 months. Despite the best effort of someone to lift VIX amid the turmoil and rescue stocks, things ended red and ugly for the Russell. USDJPY clung keenly to its 200DMA around 101.25 but stocks were manacled to bond yields on the day. Stocks crumbled back to credit markets un-exuberance from yesterday. Gold and silver recovered from an early slamdown to close higher as the USD trod water... and volume was above average.

Another important caveat to the figures is the ‘elephant in the room’ that is demand from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). The PBOC does not declare their monetary gold purchases to the IMF or release the data. However, most market participants accept that they have and are quietly buying significant amounts of gold as part of their foreign exchange diversification programme and as part of their strategic goal to position the yuan as a rival global reserve currency ...

To compare Japanese and European bond yields in order to justify an argument for US bond yields staying historically low once the Federal Reserve is completely out of bond buying is a failed comparison. 

There is no edge.

Despite the plethora of talking heads proclaiming credit markets as awesomely supportive of stocks - High-Yield bond spreads are flashing red... But that's not stopping investors piling into the worst of the worst. As Liberty Blitzkrieg's Mike Krieger notes, in an all too reminiscent scene from 2007 (MBIA CDS traded 11bps at one point then remember), investors have been buying up bonds with a triple-C-rating en masse.

While The White House's Jay Carney issued his "sell" recommendation week ago now, it appears Citi's FX techicals group have decided to do the unpatriotic thing and look for a positive "rusk"-on environment as Russia's MICEX stock market index begins to test pivotal resistance...

"I am owed 28,296 Bitcoins. I do not accept United States dollars, as it is the preferred currency of criminal organizations such as the FBI, DOJ, ATF, and Federal Reserve and I do not assist criminal racketeering enterprises."

Both sides have run their nuclear drills (US here and Russia here) and it had all gone eerily quiet in the detente between the West and Russia...until now:

RUSSIA TEST FIRES INTERCONTINENTAL BALLISTIC MISSILE: INTERFAX
INTERFAX CITES RUSSIAN DEFENSE OFFICIAL EGOROV ON MISSILE TEST

That should wake things up for the 2nd time in two months. Time to BTFWWIII.

Just as the Fed started the Taper large banks began ramping up their U.S. Treasury holdings.

Commemorative poster...

Ben Bernanke told those that could afford to hear that rates would not "normalize" in his lifetime and just last week we noted the market's shifting attitude towards what a post-rate-hike 'rate normalization cycle' might look like. As longer-term bond yields tumble, the Fed's Bill Dudley just confirmed the lower post-rate-hike "terminal rate" meme:

DUDLEY: LONG-TERM RATES LIKELY TO BE LOWER THAN HISTORIC NORM, SAYS EQUILIBRIUM REAL RATE MAY BE LOWER THAN NORMAL

 In other words, if and when the Fed starts raising rates, the highest rate to which it will raise rates in the next cycle is now expected to be notably below previous historical 'norms'. And stocks didn't like it and long-term bond yields tumbled...

Last week, for the first time ever, in "From Rothschild To Koch Industries: Meet The People Who "Fix" The Price Of Gold" Zero Hedge shone a spotlight on the mysterious, and "without any permanent employees" company known as The London Gold Market Fixing Limited which for 117 years has served as the corporate face of the London bankers who "fix" the price of gold twice daily. Since then, more than one of the LinkedIn pages we profiled of the bankers among the 5 gold fixing banks has quietly been taken down. However, the biggest surprise took place moments ago when none other than the head of spot gold trading at Barclays, Marc Booker, did what so many heads of spot FX trading in the past few months have done over fears of being caught in the ongoing manipulation probe: he exited stage left from Barclays HQ at One Chruchill Place.