Archive - May 2014

Today's event of the day.

• "May?" New Cold War May Emerge in Ukraine Crisis, Medvedev Says (BBG)
• Wristslaps will be fast and furious: EU Commission charges HSBC, JPMorgan, Credit Agricole with rigging (Reuters)
• Credit Suisse Rises as U.S. Guilty Plea Ends 3-Year Probe (BBG)
• After Martial Law Declaration, Thailand Waits for General's Next Move (WSJ)
• China property slowdown spells trouble for Asia bonds (FT)
• Russia Close to $400 Billion Gas Pipeline Deal in Pivot to China (BBG)
• Dimon-by-the-Sea Shows London Banking’s Engine of Growth (BBG)
• Modi Faces Greece-Sized Snag to Economic Revival (FT)
• U.K. Inflation Accelerates on Airfare Surge (BBG)

Considering the epic production and sales flop that Windows 8 has been, one probably does not need an actual sales ban from preventing anyone sane from using it let alone buying it, however in yet another symbolic step, banning its government employees from using the latest Windows operating system is precisely what China did in retaliation to yesterday's DOJ announcement it was charging five PLA members with hacking offenses against the US. According to Reuters, this latest blow to Microsoft came when the Central Government Procurement Center issued the ban as part of a notice on the use of energy-saving products. So Windows 8 lead to global warming? Who knew...

Not much going on tonight, except for the non-coupy martial law announcement in Thailand where the government is said to still be in charge of everything except for martial law decisions taken by the army of course, which in turn is in charge of everything else apparently including the central bank which intervened so extensively in the market, the Baht was barely changed at one point. There was also news of explosions and clashes in Benghazi but as everyone knows, what difference does Libya make at this, or any other, point. Additionally overnight there were reports that the cities of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk in east Ukraine were being shelled by the Ukraine army but that too barely registered as bullish for the USDJPY (which in now traditional fashion ramped during the US day session then sold off during Asia hours).

The current war/civil unrest cycle is an interconnected global phenomenon. Since the parasitic Central Bank driven financial system is more or less entrenched in every country on earth, every country on earth is experiencing increased concentrations of wealth into the pockets of a handful of oligarchs. Meanwhile, those nations which heretofore had a middle class are finding that this entire socio-economic class is disappearing into the dustbin of history via a variety of methods, not the least of which is criminal quantities of student loans. These loans are pushing an entire generation into inescapable serfdom, while many university administrators are enriching themselves at their expense. So it appears student loan based debt serfdom is also a major issue in Chile, and one activist, known as “Papas Fritas,” decided to take matters into his own hands. During a takeover at Universidad del Mar, he was able to get his hands on $500 million of student debt, which he subsequently torched.

Despite proclamations that markets would open 'normally', Thai SET50 (stock market) futures are indicated to open -4.2% - its biggest drop since January's collapse. Thai CDS are modestly wider (+5 to 130bps) but early Bhat weakness has been rescued back by a mysterious bidder (rumored to be the central bank by several traders). The last 2 times martial law was invoked - in an entirely non-coupy-coup-like manner - general market weakness was less than we  have seen so far. Of course, the army has decided that in the interests of avoiding the "provocation of unrest and triggering fear" it will "ban the broadcast and distribution of news." Nothing like a military-coup, that is not a coup, with total media censorship to encourage capital flows and maintain peace in the nation.

With Russia massing troops on the border with Ukraine, China doing the same with Vietnam, the already volatile situation in Libya and Syria imploding with every passing day, the only geopolitical variable that was missing was a martial law and/or national coup. Moments ago Thailand just declares the former and while the latter is still absent it too is likely just a moment of time. AP reports that "Thailand's army has declared martial law after six months of anti-government protests and political crisis, Associated Press said on Tuesday, citing an army statement issued in Bangkok." In other words, after not sternly not taking sides in the near civil war situation in Thailand for the longest time, the army finally picked a side: its own.

Well that didn't take long. Having already responded angrily to the US charging 5 military officers with cyber espionage, China has published details of the US cyber attacks:

*CHINA CALLS U.S. THE BIGGEST ATTACKER OF CYBER SPACE: XINHUA

From 3/19 to 5/18, they claim to have found 135 host computers in the US carrying 563 phishing pages targeting Chinese sites that directly controlled 1.18 million computers. But Jay Carney said earlier that "the US does not engage in economic espionage." Of course, the real way the Chinese can quiet down the US is by signing that Russian "holy grail" gas deal this week.

It seems crime pays... or "committing crimes, writing about them, having them adapated into a screenplay, and made into an oscar-winning movie" pays. Jordan Belfort, the "Wolf of Wall Street", as Bloomberg reports, expects to make more money this year than he "ever made in his best year as a broker." Having spent 22 months in jail in the 1990s, Belfort comments that 'my goal is to make north of a $100 million so I am paying back everyone this year," and adds some remarkably irresponsbible philosophy given the markets today and the world in which we are told we live in... "Greed is not good. Ambition is good, passion is good." How do we BTFD if we are not greedy?

Earlier today, Putin did his usual "we are pulling our forces away from the Ukraine border" gambit (sure he is... and is replacing them with a massive airforce drill), and as usual the algos fell for it, after European stocks suddenly surged out of nowhere on the now quite generic bounce catalyst, but what is shaping up as a far more dangerous escalation is what China is doing next to its border with Vietnam, where as reported previously protesters destroyed Chinese factories and killed Chinese civilians in retaliation over yet another maritime territorial spat. According to the Epoch Times, "troops, tanks, trucks, artillery, and armored personnel carriers of China’s military were seen heading to the Vietnamese border on May 16 and 17, according to photographs taken by by residents near the border."

During the bubblicious years from 2000 through 2014, while Wall Street used control fraud and virtually free money provided by the Fed to siphon off hundreds of billions of ill-gotten profits from the economy, the average middle class family saw their income drop and their debt load soar. This is crony capitalism success at its finest. The oligarchs count on the fact math challenged, iGadget distracted, Facebook focused, public school educated morons will never understand the impact of inflation on their daily lives. The pliant co-conspirators in the dying legacy media regurgitate nominal government reported income figures which show median household income growing by 30% over the last fourteen years. In reality, the real median household income has FALLEN by 7% since 2000 and 7.5% since its 2008 peak. Again, using a true inflation figure would yield declines exceeding 15%.

Having been described by Warren Buffett as "the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment," Advisor Perspectives' Doug Short is perplexed at Warren's recent note to his CNBC brethren that "markets are not too frothy." Perhaps, as the following chart will shockingly identify, it is time to listen less and study more as Buffett's "Market Cap to GDP" indicator has risen seven quarters in a row and is only trumped in its absolute bubble exuberance by the very peak in 2000. Maybe, despite all the talking heads trying to explain what he meant, Tepper is right to be concerned, that the market is "dangerous" and given his historical comments - looking at this chart - what would Warren do?

Wondering what Eastern Europe will blame its economic weakness on? No, not sanctions... but perhaps the second coming of Noah might slow things down a little. The overall death toll in the worst flooding in the Balkans has risen to at least 47 people. The images have to be seen to be believed.

Recently, Republican leaders in Congress unveiled a "tax reform" plan that they claimed would provide the American people with a simpler, fairer, and more efficient tax system. While this plan does lower some tax rates and contains some other changes that may make next April a little less painful for Americans, there is little in it to excite supporters of liberty. Sadly, politicians in Washington refuse to consider any tax plan that would decrease government revenue. This is because the prevalent attitude in DC favors protecting the welfare-warfare state over protecting our liberties. As the obsession with the Laffer curve shows, even many alleged supporters of the free market only pretend to support liberty as a means to enhance the well-being of the welfare-warfare state.

Two Former Government Officials Tell Us What It's All About ...