Archive - May 2014

This week markets are likely to focus on a few important data prints in DMs, including Philly Fed in the US (expect solid expansionary territory) and 1Q GDP releases in the Euro area (with upside risks). In DMs, the highlights of the week include [on Monday] Japan’s trade balance data and Australia business conditions; [on Tuesday] US retail sales, CPI in Italy and Sweden; [on Wednesday] US PPI, Euro area IP, CPI in France, Germany and Spain; [on Thursday] US Philly Fed, CPI, capacity utilization, Euro area and Japan GDP; and [on Friday] US Univ. of Michigan Confidence. In the US, we expect Philly Fed to print in solidly expansionary territory (at 14, similar to consensus) and to inaugurate what we call the active data period of the month. We also expect CPI inflation to print at 0.3% mom (similar to consensus), and core CPI inflation at 0.18% mom (slightly above consensus).

"Notwithstanding the view that we may see S&P get up to 1950 (+/- a little) over the next fortnight or so, over the rest of Q2 and Q3 we could see a decent correction of up to 20% in the risk-on trade. Low 1700s in the S&P attracts, and thereafter, depending on weekly closes, low 1600s/mid-1500s S&P could be in play. For now, however, the key level to the upside is 2000 as a weekly close on the S&P – if achieved then I would have to revisit my bearish bias for the belly of 2014. To the downside a weekly close below 1770 would, I feel, easily put a 1700 S&P within reach. Beyond that I would need to assess data and price action at the time before highlighting the next set of levels, but I would not be surprised to see policymakers again attempt to boost markets later this year - there should be no surprise if this happens because the reaction function of central bankers has become depressingly predictable."

As previously reported, the key event of the weekend was the east Ukraine independence referendum which, as expected, passed by a landslide. Of course, the outcome of the referendum itself was largely irrelevant: all that mattered was that it happened, and that it gave the Kremlin the necessary and sufficient justification to intervene and enter the eastern territory when so needed. And hours ago, in its first official statement on the referendum, the Kremlin said Monday "it respects the secession referendum in eastern Ukraine and hopes for a "civilized implementation" of the results through talks between Kiev and representatives in the east." In other words, at least in the eyes of Putin, Ukraine no longer has a legitimate claim to remain in east Ukraine.

• Hillary and Me: The 2008 campaign was a nightmare. Will 2016 be as bad?  (Politico)
• What Timothy Geithner Really Thinks (NYT)
• Rebels declare victory in east Ukraine self-rule vote (Reuters)
• Race for AIG's Top Job Has Two Favorites (WSJ)
• America on the Move Becomes Stay-at-Home Nation for Millennials (BBG)
• Old, Fired at IBM: Trendsetter Offers Workers Arbitration (BBG)
• Bad luck Jonathan: Pressure Mounts on Nigerian President (WSJ)
• Iran leader slams West's 'stupid' missile stance before talks (Reuters)
• Conchita Wurst of Austria Wins Eurovision Song Contest (WSJ)
• Greek Finance Ministry expects Q1 GDP contraction of less than 1.5 pct (Kathimerini)

East Ukraine may be independent in a result which the Kremlin said it "respects" and hopes for a "civilized implementation" of the referendum results, and which assures further military escalation in the proxy war of east versus west, but stocks are happy to ignore it all again.  The reason: a positive close over in Asia (ex-Japan) after China’s State Council pledged to reform markets buoyed demand for risk, although it really is just a follow through to the furious VIX slam in the last hour of US Friday trading, which said otherwise, means buying of US equities was the reason to buy US equities. More importantly and adding to the early spoo euphoria were comments by ECB's Nowotny who said that interest rate cut alone would likely be too little to combat low inflation - suggesting a European QE is coming - also acted as a catalyst for the latest uptick in stocks: when trapped like the ECB and when "guiding" to future activity, if unable to actually execute it, may as well go all the way. End result, Spoos up nearly 0.5% because, well, others are buying spoos.

After a job well done by a public servant, and by a job well done we of course mean facilitating the transfer of middle class, taxpayer wealth to private bank accounts, it is customary to reward them with a comfortable job in the same bank as repayment. This is also known as the revolving-door phenomenon and is the norm in US "regulation" (the epitome of career development by any SEC employee or US Treasury Secretary is to be hired by a Too Big To Fail Bank or private equity firm) and generally, politics. But not only US. Bloomberg reports that it is just as prevalent in Europe:

• Vittorio Grilli joins JPMorgan as chairman of corporate and investment bank in Europe, Middle East and Africa.
• Grilli will report to Daniel Pinto
• JPMorgan announces Grilli hire in memo to staff, obtained by Bloomberg News

Because when the time comes to bailout the likes of JPMorgan, again, it will certainly help to have connected former "public servants" like Grilli on board of course. Rinse. Repeat.

... To the astonishment of almost everyone in the room, Angela Merkel began to cry.  “Das ist nicht fair.” That is not fair, the German chancellor said angrily, tears welling in her eyes. “Ich bringe mich nicht selbst um.” I am not going to commit suicide. For those who witnessed the breakdown in a small conference room in the French seaside resort of Cannes, it was shocking enough to watch Europe’s most powerful and emotionally controlled leader brought to tears....

We are not going to lament the folly of traders nor comment on the unemployment data. We watch the dynamic between price setters and the speculators trying to front run them.

Sadly, as far as markets are concerned, the more Sturm und Drang over Ukraine, the better... this all further strengthens the Narrative of Central Bank Omnipotence – the market-controlling common knowledge that market outcomes are the result of central bank policy rather than anything that happens in the real economy. How can you know if this Narrative starts to waver or shift? If and when gold starts to work. This is what gold means in the modern age... not a store of value or some sort of protection against geopolitical instability... but an insurance policy against massive central bank error and loss of control.

In the Oval Orfice...

Any day, week, month, quarter, year now... that J-Curve 'recovery' will come bounding over the horizon and save the Japanese economy from its inevitable death spiral... for now, presented with little comment aside for historical confirmation (as even Goldman Sachs has now given up on hope of a bounce), Japan's largest (seasonally-adjusted) Balance of Payment Trade Deficit ever... For FY2013 as a whole, the current account recorded a surplus of +¥789.9bn but was far lower than the +¥4.2tn in FY2012 and the lowest since comparable records became available in FY1985.

...because there's no better time (or fiduciarily dutiful moment) than a Sunday night at 650pm ET after the majority of Eastern Ukraine votes to secede to Russia to sell $231.5 million notional worth of gold futures...

"Mother's milk"

In what is becoming a weekly ritual, the German press continues to demolish the US case of "idealistic humaniatrian" Ukraine intervention. Recall, that it was a week ago that German tabloid Bild am Sonntag, hardly the most reputable source but certainly one which reaches the broadest audience, reported that dozens of CIA and FBI agents were "advising the Ukraine government." This conclusion is hardly a stretch and certainly based on facts considering the recent semi-secret jaunt by CIA head Brennan to Kiev. Fast forward one week when overnight the same Bild reported that about 400 elite mercenary commandos of the private US security firm, Academi, f/k/a Xe Services, f/k/a Blackwater "are involved in a punitive operation mounted by Ukraine's new government" against east Ukraine separatists.