Archive - May 2014

Yesterday, when like clockwork the algos were fooled by the latest "de-escalation" fig leaf offered by Russia, in which Putin casually threw it out there that east Ukraine should postpone its referendum sending the stock market surging, we said "naturally, since there will be no delay as Kiev does not even bother to discuss the referendum while Donetsk will push on but certainly aware of Putin's distance-providing "reservation", Putin will "sadly" have to accept the referendum results." Less than 24 hours later we are proven right once more when moments ago the head of the elections commission of the so-called Donetsk People's Republic, Denis Pushilin, said the decision was unanimous to go ahead with Sunday's vote as planned. So much for that, and indeed, Putin will "sadly" have to accept the Donetsk decision to become independent, and most likely ask Russia to protect it, in less than a week.

Why have the costs of a middle class lifestyle soared while income has stagnated? Though it is tempting to finger one ideologically convenient cause or another, there are four structural causes to this long-term trend...

Today was a good day for United Technologies: its subsidiary Sikorsky Aircraft Corp was awarded a $1.2 billion contract by the Naval Air Systems Command to build the VXX: also known as the new Presidential Helicopter. Initial fielding is planned for 2020, with production concluding in 2023.

China is already Iran’s largest trading partner and oil customer and Iran is China’s third largest oil provider... and this week Iran and China’s Defense Ministers vowed to boost military ties following a meeting in Beijing on Monday. Chinese officials noted that "common views over many important political-security, regional and international issues, Beijing assumes Tehran as its strategic partner."

Sometimes it's worth remembering that while the demise of the status quo may take a while, there are actions one should be taking despite the sound and fury each and every day. As Marc Faber warned, "I don’t trust anyone." Simply put, Faber blasts, "the monetary policies as they are implemented by central banks around the world, are actually preventing the markets from clearing and [not allowing] the economy to truly improve." His recommendation, he'd "prefer investors hold physical gold in a safe deposit box, ideally outside the US," because "Fed policy will destroy the world."

Agricultural commodities have been among the best performing assets of the year so far, but, as Diapason Commodities's Sean Corrigan warns, there are starting to be some glimmers of concern.

China, as we noted here, is happy to provide the financing to turn Africa into Disneyland - Monorails and all - but there is one catch... the loans must be backed by gold as collateral. As The Source reports, China wants Zimbabwe to use its mineral proceeds to guarantee any future loans having already extended nearly $1.5 billion in the last three years to Harare’s ailing economy. Various minerals have been discussed to back the loans "but we feel gold is more stable," Zimbabwe's Mines Minister noted. Of course, China is defending the demand, claiming "it’s in accordance with rules and regulations when granting any loan" and adding that "it doesn’t mean that we will use the collateral." But one has to wonder how likely it is that Zimbabwe will promptly repay billions of dollars of loans - given their track record - and what a great way for China to transform its excess USDs to Gold (and get paid interest while it waits).

Our condolences to students in Arizona, who have seen a near doubling of their college tuition in just 5 short years. In fact our condolences to students in the six states where tuition have risen by more than 60%, in the ten states where it has increased by more than 40%, and in the 29, or more than half of all states, where college tuitions have risen by more than 10 times the Fed's inflation target of 2% per year.

Got Bubble?

Despite popular belief, very few things in our world are exactly what they seem. That which is painted as righteous is often evil. That which is painted as kind is often malicious. That which is painted as simple is often complex. That which is painted as complex often ends up being disturbingly two dimensional. Regardless, if a person is willing to look only at the immediate surface of a thing, he will never understand the content of the thing. This fact is nowhere more evident than in the growing “tensions” between the elites of the West and the elites of the East over the crisis in Ukraine. The centralization of power is best achieved during moments of bewildering calamity. The conjuring of crises is one of the oldest methods of elitist dominance. Not only can they confuse and frighten the masses into malleability, but they can also ride to the public’s rescue as heroes and saviors later on. The Hegelian dialectic is the mainstay of tyrants.

Just 3 days short of the one year anniversary of Lois Lerner refusal to testify about the IRS' improper targeting of conservative groups applying for tax-exempt status, House Republicans have voted to hold her in contempt of Congress, and

• *HOUSE VOTES TO ASK FOR SPECIAL PROSECUTOR TO INVESTIGATE IRS

As NBC reports, In a partisan 231-187 vote, the House passed the contempt resolution, sending the matter to the U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia. However, as The American Center for Law and Justice (ACLJ) repidly noted, "Unfortunately, we don't expect the Attorney General to move forward with this case, he has put politics above the enforcement of the law on numerous occasions and unfortunately that is likely to occur again."

In three concisely-worded, precisely-defined, factually-correct minutes, Jim Grant not only deconstructs Janet Yellen's mumblings this morning but explains how each of the Fed's three beholden doctrines...

1. We believe in price control
2. We believe in market manipulation
3. We believe in the Phillips Curve

...have been discredited as heresies over time; and, as Grant so poetically notes, Yellen "did not touch on the moral quandary that low interest rates introduce into our country - grandmothers, grandfathers, savers are figuratively on their hand and knees and rooting around in bushes and between sofa seats for lose change on which to sustain themselves."

A division of the U.S. military known as the Combating Terrorism Technical Support Office (CTTSO), which studies threats to national security (i.e., the status quo’s grip on power) has listed Bitcoin amongst a number of potential terrorist threats. Of course, as we and many others have noted repeatedly, anything which threatens the prevailing criminal status quo will be merely labeled a “terrorist threat” in order to neutralize it. Just in case you aren’t yet convinced of how insane the folks at CTTSO are, “also on the CTTSO’s list of terrorism research topics were Android, Motorola, social media and virtual reality.” What has happened to this country...

While Jeff Gundlach's against-mainstream-consensus bearish call on the homebuilders (and over-rated housing recovery) will come as little surprise to regular readers of Zero Hedge, we thought the following chart might provide one more simplifying perspective on his call for lower prices in homebuilder stocks...

With everyone and their mom confused at how bonds can rally when stocks (the ultimate arbiter of truthiness) are also positive, we have seen Deutsche confused (temporary technicals), Bloomberg confirm the shortage, and BofA blame the weather (for a lack of bond selling). Today, we have two more thoughtful and comprehensive perspectives from Gavekal's Louis-Vincent Gave (on why yields are so low) and Scotiabank's Guy Haselmann (on why they' stay that way).