Archive - Jun 26, 2014

On a revised basis, initial claims dropped 2k this week but marginally missed expectations at 312k. This is the 4th week in a row of marginal misses - none of which were large enough to get to excited about but it appears the limit has been reached in this cycle. Continuing claims rose for only the 2nd time in 10 weeks.

I heard it said one day that I would never be as rich as my parents. They were baby-boomers, the people that benefited from the expansionary Thirty Glorious Years of the post-Second-World-War period.

• Minorities Seen Driving U.S. Household Growth (Reuters)
• GM prepares to recall some Cruze sedans with Takata air bags (Reuters)
• PBOC Halts Repos as China Money Rate Climbs to Seven-Week High (BBG)
• Ukraine Optimism Wavers on Peace as Cease-Fire Winds Down (BBG)
• Economic Rebound Seen Undercut by Weak Pay as Vote Winner (BBG)
• Cracks Open in Dark Pool Defense With Barclays Lawsuit (BBG)
• The Survivor: How Eric Holder outlasted his (many) critics (Politico)
• IBM, Lenovo Tackle Security Worries on Server Deal (WSJ)
• Militants take Iraqi gas field town, president calls parliament session (Reuters)
• Carney Surprises Confounding Markets as BOE Manages Guidance (BBG)

Following yesterday's S&P surge on the worst hard economic data (not some fluffy survey conducted by a conflicted firm whose parent just IPOed and is thus in desperate need to perpetuate the market euphoria) in five years, there is little one can comment on how "markets" react to news. Good news, bad news... whatever - as long as it is flashing red, the HFT algos will send momentum higher. The only hope of some normalization is that following the latest revelation of just how rigged the market is due to various HFT firms, something will finally change. Alas, as we have said since the flash crash, there won't be any real attempts at fixing the broken market structure until the next, and far more vicious flash crash - one from which not even the NY Fed-Citadel PPT JV will be able to recover. For now, keep an eye on the USDJPY - as has been the case lately, the overnight USDJPY trading team has taken it lower ahead of the traditional US day session rebound which also pushes the S&P higher with it. For now the surge is missing but it won't be for longer - expect the traditional USDJPY ramp just before or as US stocks open for trading.