Archive - Jun 27, 2014

Most market pundits have predicted higher bond yields (for months), yet unloved global fixed income securities have traded well all year. Even after the dovish FOMC reiterated its intent to maintain a highly-accommodative stance, bonds have stayed resilient. The main cause of market jitteriness might be that investors are beginning to sense the ‘time-inconsistency’ aspects of Fed policy.

The CEOs of U.S. companies are compensated exceedingly well with the heads of the S&P 500 paid 331 times as much, on average, as production and nonsupervisory employees. As we wrote a month ago while explaining the 'mystery and completely indiscriminate' buyer of US stocks: "since a vast majority of executive compensation agreements are tied to company stock "performance"; C-suites are perversely happy if their own corporate cash is used to buy the stock near or at all time highs: after all management year end bonus will simply benefit that much more, while keeping activist investors delighted (and away from the embarrassing public spotlight)." Sure enough, as HBR explains, executive comp in recent decades comes down to four words: stock options and restricted stock (and more and more in the last few years).

Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko (C) poses with European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso (L) and European Council President Herman Van Rompuy (R) at the EU Council in Brussels June 27, 2014 following the singing of Ukraine's trade agreement with EU. Euphoria ensues.

• Yellen Spending Recipe Lacking Key Ingredient: Bigger Wage Gains (BBG)
• Ukraine signs trade agreement with EU, draws Russian threat (Reuters)
• GM Documents Show Senior Executive Had Role in Switch (WSJ)
• Australian Report Postulates Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 Lost Oxygen (WSJ)
• World’s Biggest Debt Load Lures Distressed Funds to China  (BBG)
• GPIF Rushing Into Riskier Assets Before Ready, Okina Says (BBG)
• Japan Prices Rise Most Since ’82 on Tax, Utility Fees (BBG)
• Italian Debt Swells to Rival Germany as Bond Yields Slide (BBG)
• China’s Manhattan Project Marred by Ghost Buildings (BBG)
• BOE's Carney Says Rates Won't Rise to Levels Previously Considered Normal (WSJ)

Abe's honeymoon is over. Following nearly two years of having free reign to crush the Japanese economy with his idiotic monetary and fiscal policies - but, but the Nikkei is up - the market may have finally pulled its head out of its, well, sand, and after last night's abysmal economic data from Japan which saw not only the highest (cost-push) inflation rate since 1982, in everything but wages (hence, zero demand-pull) - after wages dropped for 23 consecutive months, disposable income imploded - but a total collapse in household spending, the USDJPY  appears to have finally been dislodged from its rigged resting place just around 102. As a result the 50 pip overnight drop to 101.4 was the biggest drop in over a month. And since the Nikkei is nothing but the USDJPY (same for the S&P), Japan stocks tumbled 1.4%, their biggest drop in weeks, as suddenly the days of the grand Keynesian ninja out of Tokyo appear numbered. Unless Nomura manages to stabilize USDJPY and push it higher, look for the USDJPY to slide back to double digits in the coming weeks.