Archive - Jun 5, 2014

Despite multi-year high levels of layoffs according to Challenger's data, and ADP disappointing, initial jobless claims continues to ride around the lowest levels since 2007. Seasonally un-adjusted data saw claims drop 12,481 on the week but after the magical adjustment, initial claims rose 8k on the week and modestly missed expectations. Overall, the number of people claiming benefits dropped 40,279 to new cycle lows.

Well he delivered NIRP... now it's time to really deliver. Having promised in the press release to announce further policy measures in the press conference, markets are holding back their enthusiasm for now. While we have already explained why any QE action she undertakes (whether small-scale SME ABS buying, LTROs, or large-scale sovereign bond buying) will not have any direct positive impulse to the real economy, we are sure even the merest hint of it will run stock markets higher, taking out stops all the way...

So the 'market' got what it wanted to start with - a rate cut into the red so banks can start charging for deposits - and despite an initial kneejerk higher in EUR and lower in stocks, they are now resuming to the path the central planners would like. EUR is down 40 pips and S&P futures up 4 points. The USD is rising (as EUR weakens) and there is significant pressure on gold and silver. Treasury yields are also sliding (despite the equity strength). The press conference is up next and Draghi has 'promised' to unveil more policy there... The reaction moves are fading as we post...so it better be good

Congratulations Europe: you now get to pay your insolvent bank to keep your deposits for you. Today's cuts summarized and largely as expected:

• Main Refinancing Rate cut by 10 bps to 0.15%
• Marginal lending facility cut by 35 bps to 0.40%
• Deposit facility rate cut by 10 bps to -0.10%. As in negative. As in deposits are now charged a fee.

And the ECB leave with the cryptic: "Further monetary policy measures to enhance the functioning of the monetary policy transmission mechanism will be communicated in a press release to be published at 3.30 p.m. CET today."

Did it snow again in May? It seems the hopes for a pent-up demand-based bounce post the weather doldrums has once again been dashed by the hard data. Challenger, Gray, & Christmas just announced that job cuts soared by 45.5% year-over-year in May, the biggest annual rise in 9 months. However, what is perhaps even more worrisome is the actual number of layoffs, around 53,000, was the highest since February 2013. The layoffs in the South are a disaster, aside from the BP oil spill in Sept 2011, this is the most job cuts since Jan 2010. What no seasonal adjustments?

• Inside the White House's decision to free Bergdahl (Reuters)
• Dimon’s Raise Haunts BNP Paribas as U.S. Weighs $10 Billion Fine (BBG)
• Jobs Are on the Line as Banks' Revenue Slides (WSJ)
• Wall Street Adjusts to the New Trading Normal (WSJ)
• Nothing like objective, intense probes: GM recall probe to clear senior execs, finds no concerted coverup (Reuters)
• ECB ready to cut rates and push banks into lending to boost euro zone economy (Reuters)
• China Should Resist Further Stimulus, IMF Says (BBG)
• Carney Finds Ally in Draghi as Key Rate Kept at 0.5% (BBG)
• Assad wins Syria election with 88.7 percent of votes (Reuters)

In today's abnormally quiet overnight session one could hear a pin, or the USDJPY, drop: with everyone focusing on the ECB announcement in one hour, not a single algo is willing to make any big moves, or even start some momentum ignition, ahead of Draghi's announcement, which absent launching full scale QE, which it won't, will be a disappointment which means the EUR will ultimatly move higher after a kneejerk lower as the market forces Super Mario to do even more next time. As Bloomberg adds, a cut in refi and deposit rates is fully priced in and latest price action suggests investors brace for     disappointment if ECB stops short of signaling asset purchases or other liquidity measures to combat deflation.