Archive - Jun 2014

UPDATE: Sure enough, this was serious! *FBI, N.Y. POLICE ANNOUNCE FINANCIAL CYBER CRIMES TASK FORCE

Hacking Target... or The Pentagon... or Alcoa... or some Chinese military installation is all well and good; but mess with the US equity markets' mainstay market structure and it's getting serious. As BAE Systems reports, hackers slowed down high-speed trading at a large hedge fund last year and rerouted information about the company’s trades to offsite computers. The cyber-attack targeted the hedge fund’s trade order entry system and added gaps to the company’s trading algorithm - delaying orders by milliseconds. The hack went undetected for 8 weeks.  Though the hedge fund was not named, it is believed that 'organized crime' is behind the hack - ironic really...

While both the EAME and Latin America region posted their third consecutive month of 20%+ declines (-22% for EAME, -23% for Latin America), it was Asia (read China) where CAT sales have createred, and the -30% plunge in annual retail sales means Chinese demand for industrial equipment is the weakest it has been since the Lehman collapse.

The headlines are all about Philly Fed's rise to 9-month highs - just shy of the cycle's highs last September. Employment is up, and orders are improving... all good (buy, buy, buy)... But... the 'outlook' or hope index has exploded in the last 2 months by the most since 2009 rebounding from the winter doldrums. Perhaps most worrisome - though we are sure Yellen will dismiss it as "noise", Prices Paid are surging - up most in the last 2 months since June 2009. This is the biggest surge since the Fed started printing money... furthermore, prices received are down notably (ending the margin expansions dream).

I foresee over 35% of Wall Street jobs disappearing over the next 10 years, even as traders bring arbitration suits to Goldman Sachs complaining that they didn't get their full $17M bonus last year. One of us is very, very mistaken!

It appears Russia 'retaliation' continues for the 'costs' imposed by the West on Putin and his people (Russia +28%, S&P +6% since sanctions). Putin looks set to take on both EU and US as RT reports that Russian MPs are preparing a bill to ban the use of US consulting companies in Russia; and then Ukraine's Naftogaz says Russia's Gazprom seeks to end its accord on daily gas transit - a move which could threaten EU gas supplies. The US put its best man forward to respond and Treasury Secretary Jack Lew thretatened "US is ready to act" on Russia if Ukraine escalates...

Argentina's attempt to work around SCOTUS decision in favor of the 'holdouts' was rejected (under anti-evasion orders) last night leaving Argentina no alternative but to threaten to default on its debt. The government called it "impossible" to pay bond service due on June 30, because payment to holders of restructured bonds could not be made unless the 'holdouts' were paid $1.33 billion at the same time (and Argentina's economy minister argues could be up to $15 bn) which the distressed country clearly does not have. For the first time in 12 years, Argentina has agreed to negotiate with the 'holdouts' (has renegged on that negotiation) who refused to participate in two restructurings that followed Argentina's 2002 default but it seems increasingly likely that an even of default looms for Argentina.  One good thing may come from the victory of the 'hold-outs': the government will find it difficult to rack up more debt.

It took all of "several seconds", in the NYT's own words, for the latest proposal for a ceasefire, issued by Ukraine's new president Petro Poroshenko, to be "rejected."

Initial claims very slightly missed expectations (312 vs 311.9 exp) for the 3rd week in a row but the signal is no worse and no better as it sits near cycle lows. Continuing claims continue to drop; at 2.56 million, this is the lowest continuing claims since Nov 2007 - the last 4 months have seen continuing claims drop at the fastest rate in over 4 years. The bottom line is 'this is as good as it gets'...

Presented with little comment aside to note the surge in gold since Yellen gave markets the all-clear yesterday. It seems someone decided the open this morning was an opportune time to take on half a billion dollars of gold exposure...

It was two days ago when we reported that America's third crusade in Iraq "Is Not Going As Planned: Iraq Prime Minister Defies US, Accuses Saudi Arabia Of "Genocide"."Sure enough, here comes America's wrath: "the Obama administration is signaling that it wants a new government in Iraq without Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, convinced the Shiite leader is unable to reconcile with the nation's Sunni minority and stabilize a volatile political landscape. The U.S. administration is indicating it wants Iraq's political parties to form a new government without Mr. Maliki as he tries to assemble a ruling coalition following elections this past April, U.S. officials say."... The chairwoman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D., Calif.) told a congressional hearing Wednesday: "The Maliki government, candidly, has got to go if you want any reconciliation."

• Currency Probe Widens as U.S. Said to Target Markups (BBG)
• Battle for Iraq refinery as U.S. hesitates to strike (Reuters)
• Ukraine forces battle separatists after truce 'refused' (Reuters)
• Fed Dots Ignored as Investors Focus on Yellen’s Message (BBG)
• Retirees Suffer as $300 Billion 401(k) Rollover Boom Enriches Brokers (BBG)
• American Apparel ousts CEO; source says Dov Charney 'will fight like hell' (LA Times)
• House Panel Is Subpoenaed as Trading Probe Heats Up (WSJ)
• GM Officials Ignored Alert on Car Stalling (WSJ)
• Russia’s $20 Billion Bond Void Filled by China to Mexico (BBG)

She came, she spoke, and she sent stocks to a new all time high. That is perhaps the simplest summary of what Janet Yellen did yesterday when, as a result of her droning monotone, she managed to put the VIX literally to sleep, which closed at the lowest since 2007 and the resulting surge in the S&P was a fresh record high, because despite the "concerns" Fed member have about record high complacency, all they are doing is adding to it. And now that apparently the Fed has a market "valuation" department, and Yellen can issue fairness opinions on whether the S&P is overvalued, the only question is whether today, as a follow through to yesterday's "buy everything, preferably on leverage, sincerely - the Fed" ramp, the VIX will drop to single digits today.

China Gold, China’s largest gold conglomerate with primary interests in mining and also refining, is on the hunt for global acquisitions and partnerships and  appears to have designs on becoming a kingmaker in the global gold market ... We are witnessing a paradigm shift as gold moves from the West to China and the East. The ramifications of that paradigm shift have yet to be appreciated. 

Putin's economic aide and the mastermind behind the Eurasian Economic Union, argues that Washington is trying to provoke a Russian military intervention in Ukraine, using the junta in Kiev as bait. If fulfilled, the plan will give Washington a number of important benefits. Firstly, it will allow the US to introduce new sanctions against Russia, writing off Moscow's portfolio of US Treasury bills. More important is that a new wave of sanctions will create a situation in which Russian companies won't be able to service their debts to European banks. Glazyev's set of countermeasures specifically targets the core strength of the US war machine, i.e. the Fed's printing press. Putin's advisor proposes the creation of a "broad anti-dollar alliance" of countries willing and able to drop the dollar from their international trade.... An anti-dollar coalition would be the first step for the creation of an anti-war coalition that can help stop the US' aggression.

A year ago we wished TEPCO the best of luck with the construction of the "Game of Thrones"-esque 1.4km giant wall of ice that was designed to surround the exploded Fukushima power plant and slow the movement of irradiated water below the damaged reactors, preventing it from flowing over into the ocean and surrounding land. A plan so idiotic we were at a loss for words trying to list the ways it could go wrong.  And, as it turns out, making a project overly complicated and ridiculous doesn't assure it will be a success. Quite the contrary. As Japan JIJI reports, Tepco said the project, which remains in its early stages, is experiencing a problem with an inner ice wall designed to contain highly radioactive water that is draining from the basements of the wrecked reactors. A Tepco spokesman added that "We have yet to form an ice plug because we can’t get the temperature low enough to freeze the water."