Archive - Jun 2014

An indication of just how off the charts the 2014 edition of the full retard bond bubble is comes from Kenya which priced a debut $2bn eurobond yesterday and in the process managed to break the record for the largest debut for an African country in the sovereign bond market. One tranche of the offering was a $1.5bn 10 year note that priced at a yield of 6.875%. Kenya is rated B+ and the deal came several days after a large-scale terrorist attack in Kenya. The punchline: according to the FT, the orderbook was more than four times oversubscribed which is roughly equivalent to around 20% of the country’s GDP according to Bloomberg data.

Events in Iraq are changing by the hour, now that US combat boots are "on the ground", expect them to change even faster. For those looking to catch up on the most recent overnight news out of this latest civil war torn country, here is the full update.

• Obama to tout manufacturing gains, highlight economic progress (Reuters)
• Iraq Gunmen Attack North of Baghdad as Obama Weighs Plan (BBG)
• Chinese Regulators Block Shipping Alliance Abandoned Deal (WSJ)
• Russian $8.2 Trillion Oil Trove Locked Without U.S. Tech (BBG)
• Ukrainian forces, rebels clash near Russian border (Reuters)
• M&A talk lifts stocks, Iraq tensions ease slightly (Reuters)
• Wealthy Clintons Use Trusts to Limit Estate Tax They Back (BBG)
• Argentina vows to service debt despite new legal blow (Reuters)
• Allergan's Bitter Pill for Morgan Stanley (WSJ)
• Islamists kill 50 in Kenya, some during World Cup screening (Reuters)
• American Express Revs Up Pursuit of the Masses (WSJ)

With newsflow out of Iraq having slowed down as has the ISIS offensive, which appears to have been halted north of Baghdad, the market now shifts its attention to the Fed's two-day meeting which begins today and continues through tomorrow afternoon, when it will be leaked by media outlets to ultra-wealthy speculators and robots, breaching the embargo (in exchange for a hefty payoff) some 10 minutes before 2 pm.

Walmart, Tesco, Aldi, Morrissons, Carrefour, Costco. What do they all have in common, apart from the fact that they are supermarkets? They all sell products that are produced under slavery to the people that shop there.

With this unprecedented step, the Fed is sending a very clear message: it may be next year, or next month, or next week, but quite soon you, dear retail bond-fund investor, will be gated and will be unable to pull your money.... So wouldn't you rather just keep said money in the "safety" of stock funds, none of which will ever, ever be gated, pinky swear.... Unless the market crashes one final time of course, at which point the Fed will be on the first flight out to non-extradition countries.

The situation in Iraq is serious, and is probably going to get worse before it gets better. The potential for this recent action to morph into a regional conflict is very high. That means that oil could go a lot higher, and if it does, we can expect the odds of a global economic recession and an attendant financial crisis to go up considerably from here. Before we dive into what's actually happening over there right now, we need to begin with a longer and deeper historical context of the region, which is essential to understanding pretty much everything in the Middle East. The western press likes to report on things as if they suddenly occur for no discernible reason, context-free and unconnected to our actions and activities over there. But the story of the Middle East is a story of intense external meddling -- especially by the US, recently.

With China's shadow banking system's collateral chain's collapsing amid government crackdowns on the ponzi, the 'desperate for liquidity' borrowers have increasingly turned to global capital markets' suckers to fund the next malinvestment. As China's currency becomes more internationalized and yields around the world collapse (thanks to central bank largesse), demand from investors has driven, for the first time ever, the Chinese corporate bond market has overtaken the United States as the world's biggest. As S&P warns, this is raising global credit risk as "as much as 10% of global corporate debt is exposed to the risk of a contraction in China's informal banking sector," or around $4-$5 trillion, "causing overall corporate risk to increase globally," and it's not expected to slow anytime soon. It appears the authorities are starting to recognize the bubble as they plan to 'limit individuals' purchases of risky bonds'.

Psychological Operations (PSYOP) has been alternatively known in the U.S. as Military Information Support Operations (MISO) since 2010. According to the U.S. Department of Defense, psychological warfare is, "The planned use of propaganda and other psychological actions having the primary purpose of influencing the opinions, emotions, attitudes, and behavior of hostile foreign groups in such a way as to support the achievement of national objectives." PSYOPS influence the behavior of governments, groups, organizations and individuals; and can be used during conflict or peacetime. With the world's geopolitics on edge, we thought now would be an appropriate time to look at just what PSYOPS are?

The Fed is now pre-occupied with an unanswerable and fanciful question, according to Jon Hilsenrath’s pre-meeting missive on the Fed’s current monetary policy “debate”. Figuratively estimating the number of angels which can dance on the head of a pin, Fed officials and economists suppose they can specify the the appropriate money market rate down to the decimal place for virtually all time to come... Of course, every one of these three magic numbers are perfectly arbitrary, academic and silly. Due to the structural failures of the US economy owing to decades of destructive Washington policies, the “unemployment rate” today is not remotely comparable to what was being measured in the 1950s and 1960s when today’s Keynesian theology with respect to the Phillips Curve, Okun’s Law and full-employment policy was being formulated.

So much can change over a weekend.

Despite Secretary of State John Kerry predicting today that Sunni militants in Iraq do not have the ability to overrun Baghdad, the Obama administration is willing to talk with Iran over deteriorating security conditions in Iraq and is not ruling out potential U.S.-Iranian military cooperation in stemming the advance of Sunni extremists. Speaking with Yahoo's Katie Kouric, Kerry confidently explained, "I don’t believe that they will in the near term certainly, and I don’t believe they necessarily can at all," overrun Baghdad or other major cities. Having "absolutely, unquestionably" denied that the turmoil in Iraq could have been prevented if US left a residual force, he somewhat shockingly submitted that the US is "open to any constructive process here [with Iran] that can minimize the violence, hold Iraq together, the integrity of the country and eliminate the presence of outside terrorist forces."

"In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party. The catalyst will unfold according to a basic Crisis dynamic that underlies all of these scenarios: An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies. The core elements of these scenarios (debt, civic decay, global disorder) will matter more than the details, which the catalyst will juxtapose and connect in some unknowable way. At home and abroad, these events will reflect the tearing of the civic fabric at points of extreme vulnerability – problem areas where America will have neglected, denied, or delayed needed action.” - The Fourth Turning - Strauss & Howe – 1997

So is it Call of Allah Duty, not so modern warfare? Or, to paraphrase John McClane from Die Hard, "now I have a tank. Ho-ho-ho."

The enemy of my enemy is no friend of mine...