Archive - Jun 2014

You know things have got a little too strange when the largest government bond market in the world saw no futures trades in the morning session last night. We may complain in the US of falling volumes but none, zero, zip, nada is about as low as it gets; and that is how many trades occurred in the 20Y futures contract in Japan (and 10Y cash bond market). This is not the first time as Mizuho warned in Nov 2013 that "to all intents and purposes, there is no JGB market." And this lack of trading on a day when major macro data printed far worse than expected... well played Abe... you entirely broke your bond market.

In effect, those who join the majority thrashing around the spot where the food has been consumed are guaranteed to go hungry. We submit that the stock market is like a fish tank, and the majority are thrashing around precisely where the yield/alpha has been consumed and the risk of starving (losing money) is greatest. Now that the majority is tightly packed into a market devoid of yield/alpha, this concentration sets up the inevitable collapse of valuations perfectly.

As the chart below shows, while the US may have, somehow, recouped all of its post-recession job losses as was widely trumpeted everywhere on Friday, it sure didn't achieve this courtesy of a vibrant hiring labor market. In fact, as the chart below show, while the US may have recovere its annualized job change number, per the non-farm payrolls survey, of just about 2.4 million, or about 200K per month, the pace of US hiring is still just about half of where it should be based on the pre-recession trends.

The biggest news in the sage surrounding Chinese evaporated collateral troubles at Qingdao, which as noted is merely the 3rd largest Chinese port, is that this scandal has now spread to a second Chinese port: Penglai, which is also located in the Shandong province. Putting some size numbers for context: Qingdao's copper inventory is about 50,000 tons, compared to 800,000 tons in Shanghai, analysts say. There's "little evidence" for now that traders in Shanghai fraudulently have pledged collateral to banks, said Sijin Cheng, an analyst with Barclays Research in Singapore. Little evidence will become "lots" in the coming days when we expect more "discoveries" at all other bonded warehouses as the relentless inflow of commodities finally reverses and the beneficiaries finally demand possession. As everyone who has followed even the simplest Ponzi schemes knows, this is the part of the lifecycle when many tears are shed by most.

It seems President Obama's "pullback" is not going as planned in Afghanistan. NBC News reports 5 U.S. soldiers killed in Afghanistan may have been the victims of a friendly-fire incident. American and Afghan troops were conducting security sweeps on polling sites ahead of this weekend's run-off for the Afghan presidential election when they came under attack from Taliban forces. The Americans called in an airstrike amid fierce fighting and, according to U.S. officials, the B-1 Stealth Bomber strike somehow went terribly awry.

A quick thumbnail sketch of the Scottish referendum on independence

When David Tepper speaks, markets (especially those short) quake as the sheep blindly follow him into the breach; so when he said he "was nervous" recently, bulls got scared (briefly). As PageSix reports this morning, Tepper is nervous once again as the world's highest paid fund manager has split with his wife of nearly 30 years. The split could well be the most expensive hedge fund divorce ever and we suspect comments such as this did not help... "What do you think I should do with it? . . . I could buy an island. I could buy a private jet . . . I could get myself a 22-year-old!"

"Step 4: Repeat Step 1-Step 3 as many times as possible, during the period of LC (usually 6 months, with range of 3-12 months). This could be 10-30 times over the course of the 6 month LC, with the limitation being the amount of time it takes to clear the paperwork. In this way, the total notional LCs issued over a particular tonne of bonded or inbound copper over the course of a year would be 10-30 times the value of the physical copper involved, depending on the LC duration."

Oops.

While we have become conditioned to accepting the morning meltdown in gold and silver prices that occurs with all too frequent visible-handedness around 8amET, this morning's mini melt-up is odd for 2 reasons: 1) It's Tuesday, which means sell everything that's not stocks; and 2) as we explained here and here, the unwind of the China CFDs could well lead to a notably higher gold (and silver) price as the forward hedges are lifted.

One major factor to the slow growth/low inflation in the U.S. is the Wall Street Yield Trade.  By incentivizing unproductive use of capital, low interest rate via monetary policy is actually deflationary.

• Ukraine, Russia Fail to Reach Deal in Natural-Gas Talks (WSJ)
• Boko Haram Kidnaps More Girls in Nigeria (WSJ)
• Déjà vu: echoes of pre-crisis world mount (FT)
• Money market rates hit new low as ECB moves gain traction (Reuters)
• 'Dark Pools' Face New SEC Probe (WSJ)
• Buffett Ready to Double $15 Billion Solar, Wind Bet (BBG)
• White House-Congress rift over Bergdahl deal deepens (Reuters)
• Taxpayers Face Big Medicare Tab for Unusual Doctor Billings (WSJ)
• Lean Retirement Faces U.S. Generation X as Wealth Trails (BBG)
• Employers’ skills gap claim does not show up in US wage data (FT)
• He is holding out for the Zuckerberg overbid: Donald Sterling says LA Clippers not for sale (WSJ)

The tidal patterns of this market have become so well-known to even the least observant: push the USDJPY (or other JPY carry pairs) higher starting around 6am Eastern, then ramp it just before US open to launch cross-asset momentum ignition algos in FX which then carry over to spoos and the broader "market." In the meantime, overnight selling of USDJPY allows a reset before ensuing buying during the US daytime session. Rinse. Repeat. Sure enough, just after 6 pm Eastern, the same USDJPY which catalyzed yet another all time high close had been sold off, leading to a 0.85% drop in the Nikkei and US equity futures which are showing an unprecedented ungreen color. Don't worry though: the pattern is too well-known and practiced by now, and we fully expect USDJPY levitation to pick up shortly, which is the only signal ES-algos need, trampling over any kind of newsflow both good and bad, and leading to yet another all time record high which it goes without saying is completely detached from any underlying reality at this point and at any time over the past 5 years.

just who is America's police force, and by extension the Obama administration, which is behind this quiet militarization of local police forces with weapons that would normally be seen in a warzone, preparing for war against?

2013 was a good year for Goldman Sachs investments in Emerging Markets, most notably Venezuelan bonds (as they bet on socialism and won). A year later and Goldman's EM debt portfolio is still loaded with Venezuelan bonds... and the arrears are mounting. As Bloomberg reports, at a time when Venezuela’s record $25 billion in arrears to importers has its citizens waiting hours in line to buy drinking water and crossing borders in search of medicine, President Nicolas Maduro is using the nation’s dwindling supply of dollars to enrich bondholders.

Henry Ford once said, “It is well that the people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.” We hope this brief discussion raises that 'understanding'.