Archive - Jul 14, 2014

Barclays almost succeeded in its quest of becoming the top US dark pool at any cost, even criminal: in the week ending June 16 Barclays was second only to Credit Suisse' Crossfinder ATS with 312.1 million total shares traded on some 1.6 million in total trades. Unfortunately for Barclays it should put its ambitions on permanent halt, because as was revealed today by FINRA's new "ATS Transparency" database, Barclays total dark pool volume has plunged by a whopping 37% to under 200 million shares.

You have to love how the Federal Reserve downplays inflation when they are the primary source of it with other central bankers for this monetary phenomenon. They continue to play inflation down because it gives them the power to continue to use policies that seem to only aid their banking allies while making working Americans poorer by the day. When you hear that inflation does not exist, simply look at the price of goods and services over the last decade and look at your paycheck. You might care to differ.

On the heels of Friday's late melt-up, futures opened quietly on Sunday before ramping dramatically higher as Europe opened (which also saw Gold monkey-hammered lower) and then one again as US opened (along with another gold smackdown). In both cases, USDJPY was the 'igniter' of momentum. After last week's best (worst) week for "most shorted" stocks, the US open saw them instantly ramped higher and then again another squeeze pump into the EU close. Notably, the Russell dropped over 0.5% from its opening print as it appears all the buying power occurred in that early short squeeze pump. Shortly after 3ET, AAPL started to fade and then VIX pushed higher (as "most shorted" stocks started accelerating lower). By the close the Dow had lost its record highs, Russell was down 2.65% for July, Gold (and silver) were whacked 2.4% (worst in 2014), oil closed up modestly, USD unch (JPY -0.25%), and Treasury yields only +2-3bps. S&P futures volume ended 30% below average.

More Evidence of Web Manipulation

World rankings of June manufacturing PMIs point to GDP accelerating in the U.K. and the risk of the French economy contracting last quarter, according to Bloomberg Briefs' Niraj Shah. The U.K. economy grew by 0.8% in the first three months of the year while French output failed to grow. The French and U.K. economies account for 3.59 percent and 3.4 percent of global output, respectively. Whether one should entrust any faith in forecasting future growth to these soft-survey data is questionable at best but the investing world appears happy to find more confirmation-bias confirming indicators.

According to BP, drivers whose vehicles rely on burning oil have a little more than a half-century to find alternate sources of energy. Or walk. BP’s annual report on proved global oil reserves says that as of the end of 2013, Earth has nearly 1.688 trillion barrels of crude, which will last 53.3 years at current rates of extraction.

Remember when Japan and Tepco lied it was in control of the Fukushima disaster recovery, when it lied radiation exposure was manageable (when concerned about radiation exposure, just raise the minimum safe dosage), or when it lied that it had any clue what it was doing when it proposed building an "ice wall" to freeze the radioactive ground water below the damanged plant? Turns out it also lied about the impact of Fukushima's radiation not only on locally produced food (which was served to a government official to "prove" its safety), but also on food as far as 20 kilometers away. According to Japan's Asahi, cleanup work at the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant in summer last year "may have" contaminated rice harvested from 14 locations in Minamisoma city, more than 20km north of the reactors.

And scene... in what is an oddly honest moment for a central banker, Mario Draghi just admitted there-ain't-no-stopping-us-now:

*DRAGHI SAYS ECB WOULDN'T RAISE RATES IF BUBBLES EMERGE

So BTFD, BTFATH, and BTFWWIII as no matter what, the central bankers do not care about financial stability (or fragility). The so-called macro-prudential policy plan will save the day...which like OMT remains shrouded in a "don't ask, don't tell" Oz-ian mist.

Primer On Israeli War In Gaza

It appears His word is losing its omniscience. Speaking to the European Parliament, ECB's Mario Draghi unleashes a torrent of negative-now-but-positive-just-around-the-corner attempts to talk down the Euro... and it's not working...

• *DRAGHI SAYS APPRECIATING EURO WOULD BE RISK TO RECOVERY (sell!)
• *DRAGHI SAYS JUNE POLICY MEASURES HAS EASED POLICY FURTHER (see sell!!)
• *DRAGHI SAYS RISKS TO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ARE ON DOWNSIDE (really sell please!!!)
• *DRAGHI SAYS READY TO USE UNCONVENTIONAL TOOLS WITHIN MANDATE (Seriously sell!!!)

For now, EURUSD dropped 5 pips and rallied back to unch... not exactly what he hoped for...

Exactly 50 years ago last month the US Supreme Court ruled on the now famous case of Jacobellis v. Ohio. At stake was whether a French movie with graphic sexual content could be outlawed by the state via its obscenity laws. The court ruled that it could not because the film wasn’t hardcore pornography. How could they tell? In an explanation that has now turned into one of the most famous quotes in court history, Justice Potter Stewart explained that although he could not define exactly what hardcore porn was, “I know it when I see it” Like porn, asset bubbles are also hard to define, but given our economic history, and especially our recent economic history, we know it when we see it, and now we see it everywhere. We all see it. Apparently the only people that don’t see the bubbles are the people creating them.

If the notion that the single most powerful entity in the world economy is ignoring warnings signs everywhere and continues to operate based on debunked and delusional academic theories worries you, you’re not alone. 

"Stocks are going up for reasons [investors] don't really want to understand," warns Titanium Capital's Philip Manduca. The main reasoning, reflecting on the market's shrug at Portugal's problems is "We have survived so many crises. What is another," but Manduca blasts "It's a cynical approach. The real problem is the guys who have got the dice in their hands keep changing them. They can do whatever they want. They are making new rules all the time." With that background he say there are good reasons for this market to fall and "nothing can make [him] bullish stocks now." While Janet Yellen should "introduce two-way risk" this week, he reminds us that "she is a political appointee... whose job is make sure they stay in power as long as possible." The problem is - US monetary policy is the world's lowest common denominator and has consequences...

Yup: strong corporate profits. Strong like bull(shit).

Nomura has threatened to seek the immediate repayment of at least €100 million of loans to Espirito Santo Financial Group, prompting today’s sale by the Portuguese co. of a stake in Banco Espirito Santo, according to people with knowledge of the talks who asked not to be identified. Failure to repay the loan could have triggered multiple defaults across cos. within Espirito Santo group.