Archive - Jul 15, 2014

There is something to be said about every socialist paradise in the history of socialist paradises: they always run out of other people's money. And when they do, stuff like this happens: the biggest international airport in Venezuela is charging a fee for the right to inhale clean air.

The current elevation in asset prices is clearly beginning to reach levels of exuberance particularly in high yield "junk" bonds (and small caps). This time, like every other time before, will eventually end the same. However, while this time "is not different" in terms of outcome, the fundamental level from which the eventual "reversion to the mean" occurs will likely surprise most of the mainstream "bullish" clergy. Take a step back from the media, and Wall Street commentary, for a moment and make an honest assessment of the financial markets today. If your job is to "bet" when the "odds" of winning are in our favor, then exactly how "strong" is the fundamental hand you are currently betting on? (and are you willing toi bet your retirement on it?)

For anyone claiming in Q2 stock buybacks are about to slowdown, INTC has four words: "don't make me laugh." Because of the $5.5 billion in cash from operations, Intel promptly returned well over half to shareholders, of which $1.1 billion in the form of Dividends, and another $2.1 billion as stock buybacks.

It's Tuesday but not everyone had fun... Having been told by the Fed that small-caps were stretched, investors bid Trannies and Industrials into the green (well the Fed never said they were rich?) Russell and Nasdaq were sold (but only dropped around 1% as every trick in the book was found to "fight the Fed"). VIX slams, JPY ramps, Gold slams... but amid all the furore of the "Sell" momo stocks signal from the Fed, bond markets shrugged (admittedly with some noise) closing flat in 10Y (and modestly higher in yields in the short-end). Gold was monkey-hammered once again, smashed back below $1300 (but remains above June FOMC levels) with its worst 2-day drop in 10 months (breaking its 20, 50, and 100DMA). Biotechs closed worst among Yellen's shorts and Russell 2000 ends -0.65% for 2014.

Don't be late...

As stocks have pushed to new record highs in recent weeks, and VIX has dropped accordingly, the cost of protecting desperate asset managers from a far bigger collapse in prices has been soaring. We first noted the record high price of SKEW - a measure of market fear of a big drop in prices - a month ago, but for the first time in history, prices have remained elevated for a considerable period. As Bloomberg reports, the SKEW "is flashing a big warning signal for equity markets right now,” Kevin Cook, a senior stock strategist at Zacks Investment Research Inc. in Chicago, wrote, adding that, "big players are quietly and eagerly buying up put protection while they hang onto their stocks." This institutional nervousness is occurring as retail dives and AAII Bulls surge back above 60% of investors.

Beaver dams have so far prevented about 1 million gallons of fracking wastewater discovered spilled July 8 from a rural North Dakota pipeline from spreading too far. But area residents, environmentalists and even a Republican state legislator all want more reliable measures.

"My 10-year-old knew it was a scam. It was a complete joke," rages Tom Laresca - a market-maker at Buckman Buckman & Reid - who sold "pure madness" stock CYNK Technology short at $6 last week. Laresca assumed (reasonably so) that the SEC would suspend trading, sending the price towards zero. Despite Zero Hedge's initial exposure of this farce to the world (and the rest of the mainstream media's attention following), the SEC was slow and CYNK soared to $16, squeezing Laresca and forcing his firm to cut off his ability to hold positions - he plans to resign today. "I wish people would just not trade the stupid things."

Bottom line: watch your president and government lie every day while pandering and preaching, working solely on behalf of the rich, while you rot away in your part-time jobs or worse, unemployed, surviving day to day on the measly pittance the government hands you to make you a docile little handout addicted serf, and at the end of the day, whatever you do, don't become a jaded, cynical lamenter and disparager, but have "hope and confidence." Truly the road to socialist utopia is paved with best intentions.

Sometimes, with the stock market doing its best imitation of the Energizer bunny, we forget just how extraordinary are the times in which we live. We’ve been lulled to sleep by the relentless and mesmerizing march higher of stocks and all manner of risky assets. Maybe it’s just that having lived through two booms and busts already that people have come to believe that another boom in risky behavior is not just the new normal but the old one as well. And having survived the last two busts, none the wiser apparently, everyone figures we’ll survive the next one too. Maybe. Or maybe people just don’t realize how truly weird things are right now. Some suggest there is no reason prices can’t continue to go higher; however, the supply of greater fools however is not unlimited and at some point reality and rationality will return, likely with a vengeance.

Since the US is apparently unable to take a hint to stay out of China's back year, it was is up to China to explain again, just where it stands. Which it did earlier today when it warned the United States, in no uncertain terms, to stay out of disputes over the South China Sea and leave countries in the region to resolve problems themselves, after Washington said it wanted a freeze on stoking tension. China's Foreign Ministry repeated that it had irrefutable sovereignty over the Spratly Islands, where most of the competing claims overlap, and that China continued to demand the immediate withdrawal of personnel and equipment of countries which were "illegally occupying" China's islands. "What is regretful is that certain countries have in recent years have strengthened their illegal presence through construction and increased arms build up," the ministry said in a statement.

Who best to summarize what Yellen just said (aside from Bernanke of course, however he will demand at least $250,000/hour for his profound insight), than the bank which actually runs the NY Fed: Goldman Sachs. So without further ado, here is Goldman's Jan Hatzius on what Yellen really said. "BOTTOM LINE: The Q&A of Yellen's semi-annual monetary policy testimony contained a few bits of interesting information, including a slightly hawkish shift in her description of when FOMC participants think the first rate hike may occur."

Wall Street analysts are "already throwing in the towel" on 3Q, 4Q revenue growth with forecasts for the 30 Dow Jones Industrial Avg. companies of 2.5%, 1.6% versus predictions of 3% or more just 2 months ago. ConvergEx's chief market strategist Nicholas Colas explains these lowered forecasts fly "in the face of a general consensus from the economic community, the Federal Reserve included, that the back half of 2014 will be better than the Polar Vortex-damaged first half of the year." As Colas warns, rather ominously, "we aren’t pricing 1.6% revenue growth for Q4 2014 with price/earnings multiples at 17-18x. If you are buying Dow 17,000 or S&P 1980, you expect better. Now, companies and the macro economy have to deliver."

It would appear 'they' are reaching deep into the playbook to save stocks from the Fed's negativity... First they tried JPY momentum ignition - that failed... Then they tried the precious metals dump  - that failed... and now it's VIX slam time (as we predicted) and that is starting to have an effect... Machines are "fighting the fed" and BTFDing as they forget entirely why they were all selling in size 30 mins ago.

With The Fed proclaiming bubbles in some of the most-loved segments of the stock market and explaining that the economy is doing "ok" but they must remain dovish for longer for feasr of "false dawns"... what better time than now to dump $2.3 Billion notional in futures... of course the dump in gold's anti-status quo price coincided with an odd v-shaped recovery in stocks... Gold remains above its pre-June FOMC levels still.