Archive - Jul 16, 2014

35,000 global M&A deals will likely be made this year, promising “efficiencies” and “synergies,” hence job cuts. The Great M&A Frenzy of 2007/8 ended in the Great Jobs Crisis!

Here's a two-word summary of why the American healthcare system is fundamentally broken and cannot be fixed with policy tweaks: perverse incentives.

The sell off was greeted by Chinese buyers as Chinese premiums edged up to just over $1 an ounce on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE).

Gold price drops this year have led to a marked increase in demand for gold as seen in very large increases in ETF holdings (See chart - Orange is Gold, Purple is absolute change in gold ETF holdings). The smart money in Asia, the West and globally continues to use price dips as an opportunity to allocate to gold.

"Of all the economic bubbles that have been pricked, few have burst more spectacularly than the reputation of economics itself." – From The Economist, July 16, 2009.

Mainstream economists continue to dominate their profession and wield huge influence on public policies. They merely needed to close ranks after the financial crisis and wait for people to forget that their key theories and models were wholly discredited. Meanwhile, heterodox economists who stress credit market risks and financial fragilities – the Austrians, the Minskyites – remain stuck on the fringes of the field. It doesn’t much matter that the crisis validated their thinking. Nonetheless, we’ll continue to explain why we think a shake-up is overdue...“Mythbusting” the theories of mainstream economists.

Having sent shockwaves through the "Don't fight the Fed" apologists yesterday by stating that small caps (etc.) have stretched valuations, we suspect today's hearing (assuming the politicians have now read her statement and report) will focus on what the market's gurus is rapidly trying to paper over. Expect more 'uber-dovish if we need to', expect more 'vigilant' of bubbles (but there are none now)... expect more 'rates will rise - so sell your bonds (and patriotically help with the collateral shortage). Presenting Janet Yellen's Humphrey Hawkins part two... facing the Republican-led Financial Services Committee.

Presented with little comment, aside to observe the deal's ridiculous 12.6x EBITDA multiple, even higher than the record median LBO multiples we noted recently.

The reason why "one-time, non-recurring" charges are traditionally excluded from a company's adjusted bottom line calculation is because they are, at least in theory, one-time and non-recurring. So, after looking at the chart below which breaks out Bank of America's quarterly litigation charges alongside its net income, can someone please explain to us why anyone is still showing the bank's pro forma EPS excluding litigation charges?

NAHB Sentiment surged 4 points to 53 - its first time above the crucial 'recovery' 50-level since January. All sub-indices were higher but the biggest gain was in "Future sales expectations" which soared to its highest since September (and consider for a moment just how 'wrong' builders were from that point). All regions rose with The West rising most (and South least). Given the massive divergence between Builder sentiment and the reality of sales and mortgage apps, it is no surprise that "hope" is what they have left.

Debt Canary in a EURO sh*t box 

What does Yellen know? Nothing apparently (if she says 'sell') US equity markets, juiced by China's GDP data (but missing China's retail sales and home price slump) and helped by Portugal 'reassurances' that have yet to materialize, are soaring this morning... VIX is back at a 10-handle as Dow hits record highs, the S&P nears record highs and even small-cap, social media, momo, tech fantasy stocks are ripping... you can't keep a good market down... It seems "fight the Fed" is the new "Don't fight the Fed"

To summarize: the US government first allows corporations (or "people" per SCOTUS) to not only inflate their stock to record highs (via a debt funded, stock buyback scramble facilitated by the Fed's ZIRP bubble), the same companies then engage in the only logical activity that makes sense for the bottom line, one which leaves no tax payments for the US whatsoever, and then the US hopes corporations will show some "economic patriotism." In other words, shame them into adding even more capital misallocation on top what is already the worst case of central-planning since the fall of the USSR. Add this to the "less cynicism, more hope" recent appeal by Obama, and at this rate US GDP will explode courtesy of soaring healthcare fees as everyone ends up in psychotherapy from the resulting cognitive bias of doing the one thing the US government allows, permits and encourages, the very same thing that the same government subsequently shames everyone into having done in the first place!

For the 3rd month in a row, Industrial Production missed expectations as hopes and dreams of follow through in Q2 remain dashed on the shores of hard data. IP rose 0.2% (missing the 0.3% expectation) and May's jump was downwardly revised to 0.5%. What is stunning is that Industrial Production has slowed its gains from the polar-vortex Q1 into a much more economically frigid Q2. Capacity Utilization also missed expectations. Perhaps most worrying is the manufacturing industry's mere 0.1% gain in June - the slowest increase since January.

"It's not clear to us that breaking commercial ties with the Russia partners, consumers gets anyone to where they want to be," warns one political think tank as AP reports, The White House is considering imposing unilateral sanctions on Russia over its threatening moves in Ukraine - a move reflecting frustration at Europe's reluctance to bit off its nose to spite its face. Until now, the U.S. has insisted on hitting Russia with penalties in concert with Europe in order to maximize the impact, but, as Putin warned, those same economic ties have made Europe fearful that tougher penalties against Russia could boomerang and hurt their own economies. Obam has faced criticism over a lack of action, as Bob Corker blasted "sometimes I'm embarrassed for you, as you constantly talk about sanctions and yet, candidly, we never see them put in place," but the European 'concerns' are just as valid in America as Utilities in the U.S. are scrambling for coal, on pace to increase imports 26% this year.

Banco Espirito Santo stocks and bonds are up notably this morning following comments from the Portuguese Central Bank that shareholders are interested in injecting more capital into the failed bank. This has - for now - reassured investors that a bail-in won't be necessary but, as Jefferies notes, "it's hearsay for the moment but it’s helpful." Chatter that "someone" is willing to throw another EUR 2 Billion at this "troubled" financial entity was enough to spur risk-on buying in most of European stocks with Portugal PSI20 surging almost 4%. The question is - after all this additional capital (at what will likely be a major haircut to current equity prices), who will do business with this bank (and why?) after already suffering through the fear of deposit confiscation or debt haircuts?

PPI Final Demand rose 1.9% year-over-year (tied for 3rd highest in a year) as it appears Janet Yellen's transitory "noise" just won't go quietly into the night (though has fallen for 2 months in a row). While the headline print was not helped by a 2.1% surge in fuel prices, Core PPI (ex Food and Energy) rose more than expected (at 1.8% vs 1.7% expected) holding near its highest since Dec 2012. On a sequential basis, the headline 0.4% increase was double the 0.2% expected, while the core M/M rise of 0.2% was in line with expectations.