Archive - Jul 31, 2014

Following last week's "seasonal volatility"-driven plunge in claims to new cycle lows, this week saw a 32k rise to 302k, missing expectations for the first time in 4 weeks. However, what is more worrisome for bullish equity market investors is the surge in employment costs. The Employment Cost Index jumped 0.7% (beating expectations of a 0.5% rise) - its biggest jump since Sept 2008. This is the biggest variance from expectations in 8 years and suggests Janet Yellen's 'slack' just got a lot tighter. Good news is bad news for bonds and stocks (for now).

A week ago, investors were exuberantly buying Banco Espirito Santo (BES) stocks and bonds on the back of disclosures from Goldman Sachs that they have bought stakes in the bank "by virtue of its client transactions." This morning, Goldman along with its muppeted clients  (and hedge funds D.E.Shaw and Baupost) are licking their falling-knife-catching wounds as the stock of BES is down over 50% to new record lows and its bonds have cratered nearly 20 points to 57, after announcing a stunning $5 billion loss. Exuberance has turned to fear over 'burden-sharing' and bail-ins across the capital structure.

Curious what Europe's true economic state is? The chart below, showing Europe's annual inflation or lack thereof, and which just dropped from 0.5% to 0.4%, missing estimates of an unchanged print despite the ECB's ongoing and losing war with disinflation, and soon deflation, shows all you need to know.

• Moscow fights back after sanctions; battle rages near Ukraine crash site (Reuters)
• On Hold: Merkel Gives Putin a Blunt Message (WSJ)
• Argentina’s Default Clock Runs Out as Debt Talks Collapse (BBG)
• Argentina braces for market reaction to second default in 12 years (Reuters)
• Banco Espirito Santo Plunges After Posting 3.6 Billion-Euro Loss (BBG)
• Adidas Plunges After Cutting Forecast on Russia, Golf (BBG)
• GOP Says Lerner Emails Show Bias Against Conservatives (WSJ)
• Londoners Cashing in Flee to Suburbs as Home Rally Wanes (BBG)
• BNP Paribas Reports Record $5.79 Billion Quarterly Loss (WSJ)
• Swiss Banks Send U.S. Client Data Before Cascade of Settlements (BBG)
• Putin Sows Doubt Among Stock Bears Burned by 29% Rebound (BBG)

It has been a deja vu session of that day nearly a month ago when the Banco Espirito Santo (BES) problems were first revealed, sending European stocks and US futures, however briefly, plunging. Since then things have only gotten worse for the insolvent Portuguese megabank, and overnight BES, all three of its holdco now bankrupt, reported an epic loss despite which it will not get a bailout but instead must raise capital on its own. The result has been a record drop in both the bonds (down some 20 points earlier) and the stock (despite a shorting ban instituted last night), which crashed as much as 40% before stabilizing at new all time lows around €0.25, in the process wiping out recent investments by such "smart money" as Baupost, Goldman and DE Shaw. The result is a European financial sector that is struggling in the red, while adding to its pain are some large cap names such as Adidas which also tumbled after issuing a profit warning relating to "developments" in Russia. Then there was European inflation which printed at 0.4%, below the expected 0.5%, and the lowest in pretty much ever, and certainly since the ECB commenced its latest fight with "deflation", which so far is not going well. The European cherry on top was Greece, whose dead cat bounce is now over, after May retail sales crashed 8.5%, after rising 3.8% in April.