Archive - Jul 2014

With the start of the new weeks, and with the MH-17 tragedy increasingly more distant and blurred, with no definitive evidence on either presented so far, with a stripped black box revealing nothing, and with the Air Traffic control recordings still in Ukraine secret service hands, the "He said, She said" is about to escalate to a fever pitch.

• The market in one sentence: Buying on Dips Pays Most in Five Years as Stocks Rebound (BBG)
• Europe subdued, Russia shares tumble on new sanctions (Reuters)
• Chinese Data Don’t Add Up (WSJ)
• Argentine Default Drama Nears Critical Stage (WSJ)
• Global Pressure Mounts on Israel to End Gaza Fighting (BBG)
• Ukraine troops advance as experts renew attempt to reach crash site (Reuters)
• Prospects Brighten for Republicans to Reclaim a Senate Majority (WSJ)
• Europe’s banking union faces legal challenge in Germany (FT)
• Investors Bet on China's Large Property Developers (WSJ)
• Hague court orders Russia to pay over $50 billion in Yukos case (Reuters)

There has been little in term of tier 1 data releases to drive the price action so far in the overnight session which means participants focused on the upcoming US related risk events including the Fed, Q2 GDP and July Payrolls. This, combined with WSJ article by Fed’s Fisher who opined that the FOMC should consider tapering the reinvestment of maturing securities and begin shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet (note that Fisher’s opinion piece is written based on a speech he gave on July 16th) meant that USTs came under pressure overnight in Asia and in Europe this morning. There has been little notable equity futures action (for now: the USDJPY algo team gave it a good ramp attempt just before Europe open, and will repeat just around the US open despite Standard Chartered major cut to its USDJPY forecast from 110 to 106 overnight), although we expect that to change since today is the day when Tuesday frontrunning takes place with full force. We expect equities to completely ignore the ongoing deterioration in Ukraine and the imminent release of EU's own sanctions against Russia, as well as what is now shaping up as an Argentina default on July 30.

Notice the “icicles” dripping all over the place? They occur at different times of the day. What are they? Each one is a brief but dramatic price drop.

Things in China are getting downright biblical. First it was the floating animal apocalypse: who can forget the 16,000 floating pigs, followed by a thousand dead ducks, culminating with 5 dead black swans. But nothing quite beats the dramatic impact of the inner river of Wenzhou flowing blood red.

Update, one which many will say has been long overdue: Liberia Shuts Border Crossings to Slow Ebola Spread.

It was a few short hours ago when we reported that as part of the escalating Ebola epidemic in West Africa a US doctor, Kent Brantly had himself succumbed to the deadly virus. Moments ago we found out that a second US doctor from the same aid organization in Liberia, has been infected with Ebola.

Tomorrow is the 100th anniversary of the start of World War I. Perhaps just as importantly, this weekend is also the 120th anniversary of the first Sino-Japanese war: a war between China's Qing dynasty and Meiji Japan. A war which China lost, and which has been a chip on China's shoulder ever since. As Hong Kong's SCMP reports "China's loss of the first Sino-Japanese war has been attributed to a disorganised navy. Although the northern fleet equalled, some say exceeded, the Meiji navy in terms of firepower, it was annihilated because it lacked coordination among its military units." In the context of constant recent flare ups over various contested East China Sea islands, one can see why the anniversary of the war coupled with a sudden spike in nationalistic ambitions of Japan's PM Abe, would be a sensitive issue to China. However, as we can see below, China no longer has an inferiority complex when it comes to its navy compared to that of Japan.

"Make no mistake – this is an equity bubble, and a highly advanced one. On the most historically reliable measures, it is easily beyond 1972 and 1987, beyond 1929 and 2007, and is now within about 15% of the 2000 extreme. The main difference between the current episode and that of 2000 is that the 2000 bubble was strikingly obvious in technology, whereas the present one is diffused across all sectors in a way that makes valuations for most stocks actually worse than in 2000. The median price/revenue ratio of S&P 500 components is already far above the 2000 level, and the average across S&P 500 components is nearly the same as in 2000. The extent of this bubble is also partially obscured by record high profit margins that make P/E ratios on single-year measures seem less extreme (though the forward operating P/E of the S&P 500 is already beyond its 2007 peak even without accounting for margins)."

Golf anyone?

Plus:  Admitted Liar Claims Russia Is Shooting Artillery Into Ukraine

Much has been said in the popular press about Italy's surprising economic recovery (which based on recent data is starting to lose steam), as well as its much improved fiscal picture (even if the country's public debt hits record highs quarter after quarter and the bad debt within its banking system just rose by 24% from the prior year, to €169 billion the highest since 1998). Little has been said about just how Italy managed to pull this economic miracle off. The answer: robbing private suppliers to pay Paul, or rather, the public sector. According to Reuters, the Italian state owes some 75 billion euros ($102 billion)to private suppliers, as reported by the Bank of Italy. The unpaid bills have starved companies of cash and triggered layoffs, factory closures and bankruptcies.

While the allegations in the lawsuit are well-known to frequent (and all other) readers of Zero Hedge, we recommend reading the full filing as it explains in clear English just what the fixing process worked. Perhaps what is more interesting are the abnormalities in the price of gold as highlighted by Derksen, which clearly show the critical role the daily fix has in the manipulation of the price of gold, both in a downward and upward (mostly downward) direction: whichever suits the London Fix member banks.

There never seems to be a day that goes by without someone predicting that China is going to go down the Yangtze and end up some creek without a paddle.

This week, in the aftermath of the Q1 -2.9% GDP disaster, the biggest "non-recessionary" drop in 67 years which was blamed on harsh weather (because there have never been harsh winters in the past 67 years), we get the first glimpse of what Q2 GDP was in the US economy. It is expected to print just shy of 3%. However, one person disagrees: Gary Shilling believes that not only will Q2 GDP be closer to 1% than to 3%, there is a fairly good chance it could be negative, which of course would mean that the US economy has officially entered a recession.