Archive - Aug 21, 2014

Ahead of Yellen's Jackson Hole speech tomorrow, the sell-side, hypnotized by 6 years of Fed bubble-inflating generosity, refuses to even consider the possibility that the Fed could possibly pull the punch bowl away, and the absolutely unanimous consensus is that despite yesterday's minutes (or perhaps due to, because as the Chinese Department of Truth has taught us, one must first and foremost baffle with BS), Yellen will go uber-dove. So without further ado, here is what the Penguins expect Yellen's "gobbledygook" will reveal tomorrow, and as a reminder, yesterday Citi warned that there is "tremendous" downside risk if Yellen doesn't go "full-dovish".

Mainstream, Hawkish Group Blames the West for the Mess In Ukraine

After years of evading the tentacles of the US government, yesterday the crosshairs of American justice (the civil, not criminal variety) which may be blindfolded but certainly has an offshore bank account, finally locked onto the orange man who made over half a billion between 1999 to 2008, according to compensation-research firm Equilar, not to mention saddling Bank of America with the worst Easter egg M&A transaction in history. Well, it turns out the US government may not be able to sue the Moz after all. The reason? He is sick.

Given that this is 'officially' the worst-recovery-ever, one wonders why does the abysmally failed and dangerous monetary experimentation continue unabated — as Yellen will undoubtedly confirm at Jackson Hole? Self-evidently, it is irresistibly convenient to both Wall Street and Washington. Yet these screaming juxtapositions are lost in the recency bias of the mainstream narrative. Invariably, the “in-coming” data is tortured and rationalized to prove that just a few more doses of money and debt will do the trick. Consequently, the pattern and signal is obscured amidst the immediate noise. It is therefore perhaps useful to consider a more advanced case of this Keynesian debauch from elsewhere in the world. Consider Italy.

For those who are looking for just one chart with which to summarize the US housing market, here it is.

Remember all those allegations that Obamacare would be an unmitigated disaster for businesses, especially smaller companies? Well, now we have proof.

As President Obama tees off in Martha's Vineyard, The State Department has decided that its diplomats should not be allowed to have fun (for a good cause). As AP reports, US Diplomats have been barred from undertaking the #IceBucketChallenge ... there goes CNBC's ratings...

Russian stocks are now up 10 days in a row, having gained over 6% since the US unleashed Sanctions 3.0 on the 'increasingly isolated' nation. This performance handily beats Europe and the US as de-escalation hopes drive risk capital back into stocks anywhere and everywhere. However, if its all so shiny and bright in stock land, why are Bund yields (and thus all yields) plunging?

Liberty Schliberty! Shut up and do what your told...

Western nations and South Africa have already reached peak gold. There is a real possibility that it will happen globally soon. The fact that peak gold may take place at a time when the world is engaged in a peak fiat paper and electronic money creation experiment bodes very well for gold’s long term outlook. This should lead to much higher gold prices in time and gold’s inflation adjusted high of $2,500 per ounce remains a realistic long term price target. Peak gold has yet to be considered and analysed by the international financial community or factored into markets.

Something surprising happened in the early days of August: a person was actually held accountable for his mistake. As the WSJ reported previously, "a billion-dollar forecasting error in Walgreen Co.'s Medicare-related business has cost the jobs of two top executives and alarmed big investors." Specifically, at an April board meeting, Chief Financial Officer Wade Miquelon forecast $8.5 billion in fiscal 2016 pharmacy-unit earnings, based partly on contracts to sell drugs under Medicare. This did not pan out as expected and last month, just a few months later, the CFO unexpectedly cut that forecast by $1.1 billion. And then, In early August, the CFO of the nation's largest drugstore chain was gone. He wasn't alone: Walgreen said several days earlier that its pharmacy chief, Kermit Crawford, would retire at year-end.

After 19 days in isolation, The Fort Worth doctor who became infected with the Ebola virus while serving as a missionary in Africa will be released from an Atlanta hospital later today, the hospital announced early Thursday. As NBC reports, Dr. Kent Brantly is scheduled to make a brief statement to reporters Thursday morning before leaving to spend time with his family at an undisclosed location, the hospital said. Fellow missionary Nancy Writebol, who also became ill with Ebola while working in Liberia, is still being treated at Emory Hospital. No timetable has been given for her release.

Presented with little comment... aside to suggest the SEC put the porn down and take a look...

*EBAY MAY SPIN OFF PAYPAL AS SOON AS NEXT YEAR: THE INFORMATION

Russia has no plans of military incursion into Ukraine – Defense Ministry

— RIA Novosti (@ria_novosti) August 21, 2014