Archive - Aug 5, 2014

Regular readers will recall that earlier this year we highlighted how the U.S. government covertly created a “Cuban Twitter” called ZunZuneo in a failed attempt to overthrow the island nation’s regime. The elaborate plot was implemented under the umbrella of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which is responsible for overseeing billions of dollars in U.S. humanitarian aid. Well we now know that USAID went a lot further than that. Another scheme to unseat the Cuban government has now been revealed. This time with even more immoral foundations, and which could disrupt genuine humanitarian relief efforts the world over. Incredibly, the U.S. government used an HIV program as a front to foster dissent amongst Cuba’s youth. The HIV-prevention workshop was even referred to as the “perfect excuse to recruit political activists.” Despicable.

Who was really responsible for the downing of flight MH17? Let's take a look at the facts...

The Indian people are known for their generosity (and love of gold) which makes the following news even more intriguing. For the first time in two years, The Economic Times reports, a record-breaking 1,800 kg of gold offerings - made by devotees of deity Lord Venkateswara at the famous hill shrine at Tirumala - was deposited this week with the State Bank of India. This donation takes the total deposits made by the well-known temple (Tirumala Tirupati Devasthanams (TTD)) to more than 5,000 kg. What is even more fascinating, under the SBI Gold Scheme, IB Times reports, TTD will earn one percent of gold as interest.

As The WSJ reports, loan-application data show clear signs of growing student-debt burdens. A key metric that mortgage underwriters use to evaluate a borrowers' ability to repay a loan is their total debt-to-income ratio. It’s this metric that can make student loans a big negative in the loan approval process since new rules that took effect this year place greater legal liability on lenders to properly verify 'affordability' (or debt-to-income ratio). As the following chart shows, "between the approved universe and the denied universe, a few hundred dollars in student loan debt can push the debt-to-income above the approved threshold." Simply put, homeownership rates will face pressure until student borrowing slows or until mortgage investors and lenders come up with either more flexible underwriting tools or new loan products (and that never ends well).

For seventy years, one of the critical foundations of American power has been the dollar’s standing as the world’s most important currency. For the last forty years, a pillar of dollar primacy has been the greenback’s dominant role in international energy markets. Today, China is leveraging its rise as an economic power - and as the most important incremental market for hydrocarbon exporters in the Persian Gulf and the former Soviet Union - to circumscribe dollar dominance in global energy, with potentially profound ramifications for America’s strategic position.

In remembrance of our chronic stupidity...

With all eyes focused on Ukraine's border with Russia, it is hardly surprising that the 'other' dispute has fallen off the front pages. However, as Stratfor notes, there has been a burst of diplomatic activity in recent months over the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, which Armenia and Azerbaijan have disputed for decades. Russia, the strongest power in the Caucasus, has become more engaged in the issue as Azerbaijan's leverage in the region grows. Russia's involvement could herald a change in this longstanding conflict.

As Sun Tzu once said (or was it Bud Fox?), "The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting," and so it is that we suspect President Xi Jinping's marauding destruction of Zhou Yongkang, among the most powerful and feared officials in China, and his army of corrupt politicians, businessmen, family, and military personnel has won Xi's war before the real fight begins. What fight are we talking about? Why have we been so focused on Zhou and Xi recently? One glance at last night's non-manufacturing PMI for China, or the jobs component of manufacturing PMI, or any of the hard data... in the face of a record-breaking credit impulse (and subsequent hangover) leaves Xi wide open for rebellion and revolt among the ruling powers of China should his non-reform create social unrest. By removing Zhou - the most powerful of contenders - Xi has won without fighting, no matter how hard the economic landing becomes.

Presented with no comment...

Moments ago CNN blasted a headline stating that the US believes there is a new, post-Snowden leaker exposing national security. Why? The reason is the following article that was released a few hours ago by the Intercept, and which is an expose on yet another classified system called Terrorist Identities Datamart Environment (TIDE), in which we read: "The documents, obtained from a source in the intelligence community, also reveal that the Obama Administration has presided over an unprecedented expansion of the terrorist screening system. Since taking office, Obama has boosted the number of people on the no fly list more than ten-fold, to an all-time high of 47,000—surpassing the number of people barred from flying under George W. Bush." And there is Snowden 2.0.

Today, everyone believes that market price levels are largely driven by monetary policy and that we are all being played by politicians and central bankers using their words for effect rather than direct communication. No one requires convincing that market price levels are unsupported by real world economic activity. Everyone believes that this will all end badly, and the only real question is when.... There’s absolutely nothing sincere about the public sphere today, in its politics or its economics, and as a result we have lost faith in our public institutions, including public markets. It’s not the first time in the history of the Western world this has happened … the last time was in the 1930’s … and over time, perhaps a very long period of time, a modicum of faith will return. This, too, shall pass... It’s the public markets where faith has been lost, and that’s why the Golden Age of the Central Banker poses existential risks for firms and business strategies based on trading activity within those public markets.

Investors often choose investment vehicles or make trades based upon faulty assumptions...

Hundreds of troops are being deployed across West Africa in an effort to maintain peace and quarantine. As Liberian health officials warned, "The situation will probably get worse before it gets better." Following Monday's announcement that it will not issue pilgrimage visas to pilgrims from Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia due to concerns regarding the spread of the Ebola virus, Saudi Arabian officials have admitted they are testing samples from a man who had returned recently from a business trip to Sierra Leone for suspected Ebola infection. But it gets worse. As The Nigerian Tribune reports, Nigerian officials  has revealed that two people have Ebola-like symptoms after contact with the dead Liberian Ebola victim, Patrick Sawyer. The CDC Director is "deeply concerned" about spread of Ebola in Lagos (4th most populous city in the world).

We did this interesting experiment on the 10 minute lift to the top of the ski slopes last weekend.

Fed officials have repeatedly emphasized the importance of financial stability for monetary policy. But, as Goldman Sachs points out, knowing which financial and macroeconomic imbalances to monitor is challenging, not least because of the limited number of past crisis episodes in the US. To help The Fed, Goldman surveys a large economic literature that studies the effectiveness of "Early Warning Systems" (EWS) in detecting banking crises, costly asset price busts, and currency crises across a broad range of countries. While they suggest subtlely that the Fed is clueless with regard what to look for, they note that credit markets and asset-price run-ups (especially when they occur together) provide a statistically clear warning signal... and as we know, both are flashing red currently.