Archive - Sep 30, 2014

Despite stock indices hitting record highs (apart from small caps and 50% of individual stocks down notably), The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence narrowed its divergence with UMich confidence and tumbled to 86.0 (missing expectations of 92.5). This is the biggest miss since Jan 2012. The gap between the confidence of rich and poor increased but the gap between economic confidence and consumer confidence narrowed.

US equity markets were sliding into the Chicago PMI print as early release indications proved correct and it missed expectations. Having flip-flopped from worst since July 2013 to almost cycle highs last month, Chicago PMI printed 60.5 (vs 62.0 expectations) hindered a drop in new orders and production. The silver lining, the employment index improved modestly. Prices Paid surged to its highest since 2012.

Russia’s weighing of capital controls if net outflows intensify.

Just days after Ukraine began discussing capital controls, and Russian lawmakers passed a bill enabling asset freezes, it appears Russia has reached its limit.

*RUSSIA SAID TO WEIGH CAPITAL CONTROLS IF NET OUTFLOWS INTENSIFY

The Ruble is plunging towards 40 to the USD (CB intervention levels), US equity futures gapped lower, and European stocks are sliding.

For the 3rd month in a row, S&P Case-Shiller home prices fell MoM with July's 0.5% drop the biggest since November 2011. This dragged the YoY growth to 6.75% (missing expectations of 7.4%) and its slowest rate of increase since November 2012. Non-seasonally-adjusted the drop is even larger (-0.6% MoM). Perhaps most notably San Francisco was the biggest drag on the index.

Things are rapidly shifting from bad to worse for PIMCO. In a triple whammy this morning, Bloomberg reports the Total Return Fund ETF (managed previously by Bill Gross) has suffered $446 million outflows (or over 12.5% of assets) so far; Morningstar downgrades the fund from 'gold' to 'bronze' citing "uncertainty regarding outflows and the reshuffling of management responsibilities"; and perhaps most concerning - given our previous warnings over bond market illiquidity - The FT reports, US regulators are monitoring trading and fund flows surrounding PIMCO's Total Return Bond fund warning investors they should contemplate the unintended consequences of pulling their money and the possibility of systemic risk disruptions, fearful of "runs."

• Hong Kong protesters stockpile supplies, fear fresh police advance (Reuters)
• Protesters stay out on Hong Kong streets, defying Beijing (Reuters)
• Traders Turn Up Grilling Sausages at Hong Kong Protests (BBG)
• Ukraine Army Sees Worst Day Since Truce as Battles Flare (BBG)
• Islamic State uses grain to tighten grip in Iraq (Reuters)
• For Putin Ally, U.S. Sanctions Only Add to Anti-Russia Conspiracy Theory (WSJ)
• Coinbase Leads Move to Bring Bitcoin to Masses (BBG) - good luck
• Austria Cracks Down on Spies -- and Jihadis (BBG)
• EU Believes Apple, Fiat Tax Deals Broke Rules (WSJ); Apple’s Irish Tax Deal ‘Engineered’ to Boost Employment, EU Says (BBG)

And so Carl Icahn wins again, this time with his demand that eBay spin off PayPal. As a reminder, eBay swore up and down it would never spin off its best performing asset, then swore again, and swore some more. And then 3 minutes ago, revealed it was only kidding, because eBay just reported PayPal will be spun off in a move that will cost CEO John Donahoe his job: "Neither Donahoe nor Swan will have an executive management role in the new eBay and PayPal companies. But to provide continuity, they each expect to serve on one or both of the boards of the two companies. Oh, and another winner: "Goldman, Sachs & Co. and Allen & Company LLC are serving as financial advisors to eBay Inc."

It has been a night of relentless and pervasive disappointing economic data from just about every point on the globe: first the Chinese HSBC manufacturing data was well short of expectations (50.2 vs. Exp. 50.5), which was promptly spun as bullish and a reason for more stimulus by the PBOC even though the central bank has been constantly repeating it will not engage in western-style shotgun easing. Then Japanese wages, household spending and industrial production came in far below expectations - in fact at levels which suggest Japan is once again in a recession - which once again was spun as bullish, because the BOJ has no choice but to do more of the same failed policies that have made Abenomics the laughing stock of the world. Finally, moments ago Europe reported the lowest inflation data in 5 years, as well as core CPI sliding to just 0.7%, and which was, wait for it, immediately spun as bullish for risk as once again the local central bank would have "no choice but to ease." In other words, thank god for horrible news: because how else will the rich get even richer?

Anyone confused why futures are doing their best to surge in the overnight session, the answer is simple: first it was Japan reporting the latest batch of atrocious economic data, which an hour ago was followed by Europe own abysmal econofreakshow, where Eurostat just reported that in September Eurozone inflation rose a meager 0.3% from a year ago, the lowest annual increase since October 2009.This marks the 12th straight month that Euro inflation has been below 1%, and far below the ECB's goal of 2% inflation.

As the great Keynesian priests of Japan distract the world by pointing out repeatedly the modest and now declining rise in nominal wages, as testament of the "success"of Abenomics, what they want everyone to ignore is what is going on with real wages. So, without further ado, here is the difference between Nominal and Real wages, as demonstrates best by that sinking Keynesian titanic, which has already returned to recession as confirmed by the upcoming negative GDP print, Japan.