Archive - Sep 2014

Global growth expectations... we have a problem. With all eyes focused on BABA, Treasury yields, and Russell 2000 death-crosses, the old equally-weighted CRB commodity index has broken down through support to 4-year lows this morning...

The President pledges "no combat troops" in Iraq. The head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Martin Dempsey, says he may recommend combat ground troops in the battle against ISIS. The President, in a speech, reiterates "no ground troops," and "no combat troops." In short, when it comes to the making of American foreign policy what we have in Washington is what appears to be the functional definition of anarchy!

"SHARE PRICES AROUND THE WORLD ARE STRONGER and the news from Scotland should serve to keep the global bull market intact for markets do indeed disdain confusion and the confusion over the UK’s future has been relieved. All things being otherwise equal, this is supportive of shares generally. Stare then... do not merely look; stare!... at the chart of the S&P at the bottom left of p.1 and try if you will to see anything bearish in that chart... Long of One Unit of the US equity market" -  Dennis Gartman

America is betting the kitchen sink on natural gas. No matter which estimate you look at -- the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the International Energy Agency, or Wall Street banks -- two things are clear: the United States is slated to consume enormous amounts of natural gas and the dominant fuel of electricity generation for the last 50 years, coal, is diminishing. For everyone’s sake, let’s hope the gamble pays off. Because if natural gas fails to live up to the high expectations, there will be less coal to back it up.

This is not what Yellen promised! The Russell 2000 (inching ever closer to its death cross) has plunged today and is now -0.8% from pre-FOMC and negative year-to-date.  Dow Transports have also given up all their post-FOMC gains and Homebuilders have plunged. US Treasury yields have tumbled with 30Y now -3bps on the week (and below pre-FOMC levels). The USD is rising as GBP weakness re-emerges.

One look at YHOO stock and one wonders just what is the creative way that the market, if not Gene Munster of course with his upgrade last night from $4 to $48, believes Marissa Mayer will create several billion in value. Negative value that is. Why several billion? Because when one strips out the 22.6% stake YHOO owns in Alibaba at its current market cap, the net value one gets is just shy of negative $10 billion.

The moment everyone had been waiting for just arrived and moments ago BABA broke for trading at $92.70 after its $68 IPO, and promptly traded over $99.50, which means its market cap is now above that of Chevron, and is about to catch up to Walmart's $246 billion. BABA just broke below it's opening print.

While we are not predicting that the proverbial "wheels are about the come off the cart," today, this is another in a long list of indications that value in the stock market is no longer present. Of course, this would also suggest this might be, just maybe, a time to start considering "selling high." Of course, such a suggestion is wildly ludicrous and absolutely illogical since it is widely believed that the markets will never go down...ever.

Precious metals are under pressure once again this morning led by Silver which just hit its lowest since August 2010. It appears investors are liquidating precious metals to make room in their 'safe haven' portfolio for precious Ma's Alibaba IPO... because what could go wrong there... (Russell 2000 is also seeing notable liquidation)

Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond says he intends to stand down, after losing independence vote http://t.co/SBm4yhDZ9T

— BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) September 19, 2014

FOMC voting-member Richard Fisher is among the sanest voices in the Eccles Building asylum and he is once again sounding alarms that all is not well in US financial markets:

*FISHER SAYS FED HAS 'LEVITATED' MARKETS, SEES SIGNS OF EXCESS IN FINANCIAL MARKETS

Furthermore, Fisher notes The Fed can't force companies to hire, and would like to see rate hikes as early as Spring 2015.

With fake recoveries like these, who needs all too real global recessions?

As the Alibaba IPO prepares to open on the NYSE (where they described this as "the biggest and most important IPO of all time," Jack Ma - who explained his hero was Forrest Gump during an interview with CNBC, just joined the Central bankers' 'have faith' club with his dismissal of concerns that all is not well: "Trust Us, Trust The Market" So there it is - from the lips of the richest man in China - trust the billionaires, they know what's best for you...

As US equity markets explode higher at the open this morning (Dow over 17,300 and S&P testing 2,020) extending the week's gains to 2%, we thought it intriguing that Treasury yields are now lower on the week... long live the Queen (Janet not Elizabeth), long live Jack Ma, and long live quad-witching.