Archive - Sep 2014

While none of these people, many of whom are unemployed and paid by others to stay in line for days, will spend the $3,600 someone in China just paid for a "gold" iPhone, they will gladly pay hundreds of dollars out of pocket, or in many cases simply lease with zero money down, the latest and greatest aspirational gadget to show they are cooler than they actually are.

Following a plant tour to TSLA, Goldman is confident that the company will meet its 2014 production objectives. However, what keeps them more guarded is the aggressive timetable of the gigafactory as well as a potential escalation of capital needs given the planned capacity ramp, model and derivative expansion, service expansion as well as other undisclosed projects. Simply put, Goldman warns, at the low end of our three disruptive scenarios for TSLA, they see the need for an additional $6bn in capital - and 18% dilution to the current market cap around $33bn. With 3Q likely to be a noisy quarter and shares seemingly baking in flawless execution at present, Goldman remains sidelined for now with a $210 target.

While Scotland was busy concluding the count of its votes for or against independence, Royal Air Force fighter jets based out of the northern Scottish base in Lossiemouth in Moray, were scrambled to identify and intercept two airplanes which subsequently were revealed to be Russian Tu-95 Russian "Bear H" strategic bombers, that were spotted in international airspace although the exact location of the encounter has not been disclosed. As the RAF later clarified in a statement, the aircraft did not enter UK airspace. 

Return of the Goldman Thieves...

Early kneejerk exuberance in Cable and European bond risk is rapidly unwinding as the reality of a revolting youth raise concerns over social stability. Nowhere is that more evident than in Spain this morning as pro-Catalan independence supporters push the government for a referendum on their secession in November:

• *CATALANS SAYING LOUDLY BUT GENTLY THEY WANT TO DECIDE: MAS
• *SPAIN GOVT OPEN TO DIALOG, HAS TO COMPLY WITH LAW: SAENZ
• *REFERENDUMS ARE NOT POSSIBLE IN SPANISH LAW, DEPUTY PM SAYS

Catalan President Artur Mas says it is a mistake to think the Scottish "No" votes casts a shadow over Catalonia and is threatening Rajoy if he blocks the vote. Spanish bond risk is up 12bps off the lows of the day.

• Scots spurn independence in historic vote but demand new powers (Reuters)
• Salmond’s Journey as Scotland’s Leader Ends Short of Destination (BBG)
• European Stocks Rally to 6 1/2-Year High on Scottish Vote (BBG)
• Jack Ma Planning Personal Roadshow With Clinton to Immelt (BBG)
• Some consumers say Apple is losing its 'cool' factor (Reuters)
• Gold IPhones at $3,600 as China Delay Fuels Black Market (BBG)
• This Man's Job: Make Bill Gates Richer (WSJ)
• Mom-and-Dad Banks Step Up Aid to First-Time Home Buyers (BBG)
• France says it launches first air strikes in Iraq (Reuters)

Hung, drawn or quartered?

The following post-referendum poll from Lord Ashcroft does a good summary of who voted how and why. However, the most telling distinction is the following:

• Voters aged 16-17: YES: 71%; NO: 29%
• Voters aged 65+: YES: 27%; NO: 73%

How will last night's vote look like in 5, 10 or 15 years when today's 17 year olds are Scotland's prime demographic?

So much for any Scottish referendum vote "surprise": the people came, they voted, and they decided to stay in the 307-year-old union by a far wider margin, some 55% to 45%, than most polls had forecast, even as 3.6 million votes, a record 85% turnout, expressed their opinion. The gloating began shortly thereafter, first and foremost by David Cameron who said "There can be no disputes, no re-runs, we have heard the settled will of the Scottish people." Queen Elizabeth II, who is at her Scottish castle in Balmoral, is expected to make a rare comment on Friday. But while a No vote was where the smart betting money was ahead of the vote anyway, and is thus hardly a surprise, the most curious thing overnight was the complete roundtrip of cable, which was bought on the rumor and then sold off on the news, roundtripping by nearly 200 pips.

Scottish Independence,..Nooooooooooooo!

Silver demand keeps increasing ... silver prices keep falling ... hmmm

Just say no!!

“... Just Before It Melted Down”